Tracy Alloway

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New Odd Lots! Oil is firmly above $100 a barrel & energy companies are making record profits, so why isn’t crude production ramping up faster? @TheStalwart and I speak to @PTertzakian about why it’s taking so long to turn the oil taps back on. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
IMO the key question is: What curbs the crypto crash? In today’s newsletter, @tracyalloway and I wrote about crypto vs TradFi. Similarities: Crashes and cascading margin calls. Differences: Only one has a Fed backstop and assets of intrinsic worth bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
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And some background on the issue here: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The SEC is asking whether index providers should be considered financial advisers: Index providers' "inclusion or exclusion of a particular security in an index drives advisers with clients tracking that index to purchase or sell securities in response." sec.gov/rules/other/20…
"The Fed has confirmed that forward guidance has a shelf life of less than 42 days" bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
And the transcript is over here: Some points of interest: - There are parallels with the Dotcom Bubble but also differences - Private equity is going to have tough times ahead - It's not just tech stocks in the crosshairs of higher rates - & much more bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
NEW ODD LOTS Perfect timing for this one. @TheStalwart and I finally got Jim Chanos, aka @WallStCynic, on the podcast to talk about everything going on in markets right now. You can read out write-up of the interview here: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Energy firms "are increasingly confessing that scarce materials, labour and equipment are also adding to frictions in adding rigs," TD analysts say. I need to do a follow-up to this 2016 story called "How Actual Nuts and Bolts Are Increasing Oil Prices" bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Shale producers still paying down debt as opposed to ramping up capex, charts via TD Ameritrade:
We're seeing in real time why we don't build enough homes in this country. Yesterday, Jerome Powell talked about the need for a "reset" of the US housing market. But the immediate effect from higher rates is we're seeing a big drop in housing starts bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Bond traders are declaring the death of forward guidance. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… with @michaellachlan & @mccormickliz
Revlon filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, unable to manage its heavy debt load amid the supply chain crunch and steep inflation trib.al/KKDOqyT
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NEW ODD LOTS: It's the @WallStCynic episode. @tracyalloway and I talked to the legendary short seller Jim Chanos, about why some of the worst hit parts of the market have more pain ahead. And why it's not just tech and meme stuff that's vulnerable bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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One reason why we're seeing lots of busts in crypto is the emphasis on *collateral* in DeFi. Since you don't really know who you're lending to, you typically ask for extra protection. But the focus on collateral means bigger busts when prices go down. bis.org/publ/bisbull57…
Maybe we should just add gas prices to the dual mandate and make it more explicit.
BREAKING: The Fed raises its main interest rate by 75 basis points, the largest increase since 1994 bit.ly/3NY9w3B
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A Goldman Sachs analyst asking Cathie Wood if she cares about price at all seems pretty zeitgeisty.
In a recent episode of the Odd Lots podcast, @TheStalwart & @tracyalloway asked me whether Foxconn would get into batteries. They have the technology, I told them, but didn't know if they'd go big into batteries. Turns out, they are indeed. asia.nikkei.com/Business/Techn…
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Trucking update: The outbound tender rejection index (OTRI), which measures the percentage of truckloads rejected by trucking carriers, fell to a new cycle low of 8.13%.
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There's a lot going on right now. but you should probably be paying more attention to European sovereign bond spreads. I did a Q&A with @ericlonners of M&G Investments about why he thinks we're now at the dawn of European Debt Crisis Part II bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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"Capital remains unavailable even though oil and gas prices are high." 4043042.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4043042/…
Yesterday's dramatic moves in bond yields show that the world's most important market has a big and repetitive problem. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Why yes, there is an Odd Lots episode about this: podcasts.apple.com/lb/podcast/a-t… And the transcript is here: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Biden is about to sign the Ocean Shipping Reform Act into law. The act gives gives the Federal Maritime Commission more power to regulate shippers (and thereby lower fees). whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
“We are encouraged that Haze is out on bail,” said John Micklethwait, Bloomberg’s editor in chief. “She is a much valued member of our Beijing bureau" China Has Released Bloomberg News Staffer Haze Fan on Bail bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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CDX opens above 100 bps on Tuesday. The 'quiet' selloff in corporate credit is coming back and I bet it's going to get a lot noisier. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The percentage of fund managers expecting a stronger economy falls to a new low in BofA's latest survey:
Six weeks ago, MicroStrategy basically dismissed the idea of Bitcoin getting to $21,000.
Turns out avocados were the real inflation hedge all along.
Apropos of nothing, here's a reminder of why Tether is vulnerable to a run as we see other parts of the crypto ecosystem (Celsius) come under strain. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Celsius, a well-known crypto lender, paused withdrawals, swaps and transfers, exacerbating a broader market selloff as traders continued to question the market trib.al/bCGmQHv
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There has been one market where investors have been pricing in much more stubborn levels of inflation... I wrote a bit about it in last week's Odd Lots newsletter: bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
Tether redemptions are just pouring into Bitfinex right now. This wallet alone has done around 180 million in redemptions in the last hour: etherscan.io/address/0x4a8a… It looks like version 2.0 of the run on Tether has begun. Version 1.0 petered out last month.
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My favorite Medusa (a.k.a can of worms) chart, now in CPI form. Markets have consistently underestimated the stickiness of higher inflation.
NEW ODD LOTS: The tax that could solve the housing crisis? @tracyalloway and I spoke to @Redfin Chief Economist @FairweatherPhD on the case for a Land Value Tax, and why it could lead to better development and fairer distribution of real estate. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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CPI COMES IN HOT Core gains 0.6% VS. 0.5% EXPECTED. Headline grows 1% vs. 0.7% expected On a year over year basis, it's 8.6% headline and 6.0% core.
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If you want to watch video of @tracyalloway and me talking to the CEO of @ArriveLogistics about how the freight brokerage business, they've posted a bunch of highlights from our chat last month. arrivelogistics.com/odd-lots-conve…
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Th whole thing is well worth a read but the list of 'financial behaviors to watch out for' is really useful. An excerpt below.
Robots can do what short-sellers do. This study trained machine-learning algorithms to identify the kind of accounting frauds spotted by short-sellers like @muddywatersre, @CitronResearch etc. in publicly-available earnings statements. (H/T @Dutch_Book) sfi.ch/en/publication…
Import demand is not just softening — it’s dropping off a cliff. freightwaves.com/news/us-import…
🧵 1/Everyone knows Foxconn as the company that makes your iPhone. In fact, they've made (in my estimate) over 85% of all iPhones ever shipped. But before the iPhone, even before the iPod, Foxconn was a major player in electronics. Just not in the way you now know ...
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NEW ODD LOTS: Foxconn has a plan to upend the electric vehicle industry. Foxconn has always been more than just the company that assembles iPhones. @tracyalloway and I talked to @tculpan about the company’s plans to do for EVs what it did for PCs bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Other than the COVID shock, weakest home purchase activity based on mortgage apps since late 2016.
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The year is 2022 and COBOL is the programming language most likely to win you government contracts. twitter.com/josephzeballos…
NEW ODD LOTS: This year's US wheat planting season has been awful. @tracyalloway and I spoke to @GoddessofGrain about how on top of everything else, farmers in the US are facing uniquely brutal conditions, with some of the worst rains ever seen. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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