Tracy Alloway
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Given the madness with Evergrande and Chinese markets...
I've made a section of @tracyalloway lecture on Imperial Chinese bonds in early 1900s *free to watch*.
National politics, bonds, Chinese infrastructure, default, and revolution. Familiar?
investor-amnesia.teachable.com/courses/imperi…
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway 
New Odd Lots!
If you're wondering what's going on with China Evergrande, then do @TheStalwart & I have the episode for you...
Featuring @travislundyasia, who's basically a walking encyclopaedia when it comes to this topic.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The big risk when it comes to China Evergrande:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… by @ShenHongDJN @endacurran @SofiaHC1
The brilliant @tracyalloway discusses antique Chinese debt, revolts and how it impacted foreign investors.
Tracy *also* proves that "The Last Emperor" movie is actually all about Fixed Income.
Just one snippet from a riveting lecture.
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway New Odd Lots!
The semiconductor series continues. @TheStalwart & I brought back @Srasgon to talk about why the global shortage of chips seems to be getting worse.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
(and yes, there's an Odd Lots episode on China Evergrande coming up. A rather epic one featuring someone I've been meaning to get on for a very long time)
China Evergrande concerns are rippling through markets after the company halted trading of its onshore bonds,
- Shares of other Chinese property developers & banks are falling
- Yields on junk-rated debt spike to the highest since March 2020
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… by @SofiaHC1
Imperial Finance - the second @InvestorAmnesia course - is now available, and includes my lecture on antique imperial debt.
I'm *very excited* to send a bunch of new people down this particular rabbit hole.
You can register here:
investoramnesia.com/imperial-finan…
The big risk for the semiconductor industry is that it becomes more like the corporate bond market.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
First time I've seen Amazon containers.. Slowly taking over the world..
Credit to @JoonasGebhard
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway Why is ESG being sold so aggressively? Because accountants, measurement services, fund managers & consultants are on the ESG gravy train, with stockholders & taxpayers paying. Corporate CEOs are buying into ESG, because it makes them accountable to no one. bit.ly/3nwSP4N
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway In today's newsletter, I wrote about the latest CPI and how the big theme here is rotation, as some price pressures fade away and others come to the fore.
The Fed should've called it 'narrow' inflation instead of 'transitory.'
bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
Of course, the CPI component everyone's watching out for is what's going on with mayonnaise.
Answer: CPI for other fats & oils came in at 6.6% yoy vs. 5.8% in July.
But the good news is that the price of soy oil is starting to come down so that should feed into mayo soon.
"Hapag-LLoyd AG thinks spot rates have peaked and further increases are not necessary"
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway The Taliban literally cannot make the money printer go brr axios.com/afghanistan-ca…
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway You know supply chain issues are bad when the credit analysts start incorporating them. Via Goldman:
New Odd Lots!
If you've been wondering what's going on in China with all these crackdowns, then we have the episode for you.
@TheStalwart and I brought back @danwwang - one of the best China tech analysts out there - to discuss.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The craziest thing about the debt ceiling drama is that it could mean demand for U.S. government debt *goes up*
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
'The Fed’s corporate bond buying helped the market get better, but it also made it much harder to bet against beta.'
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
A super typhoon is heading towards two of China's biggest ports, which will probably add to shipping issues.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… by @CeciliaYap1211
Port congestion shows no sign of improvement.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
And of course, I wrote a little preview of the episode last week:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
New Odd Lots!
We brought back Zoltan Pozsar to talk about everything going on in money markets right now
If you're trying to wrap your head around the RRP, the new standing repo facility, or what's will happen when tapering starts, this is a must-listen
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Copper is so expensive right now that makers of air conditioners plan to replace it with aluminum.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
OMG. Someone on Reddit says their local grocery store may be offering illegal onion futures reddit.com/r/legaladviceo…
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway El Salvador's bonds are getting dumped.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Full disclosure: I spent about $400 on my wedding and Elvis was there so what do I know.
'Honey, we don't need a real wedding. We'll just spend $30,000 on wedding-related NFTs instead.' twitter.com/FOX5Vegas/stat…
China Evergrande shares have dropped below their 2009 IPO price.
Next on Odd Lots:
Supply shortages affecting baseball bat availability for major leaguers
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway For the past 10 days I’ve been fostering a stray pup. This is Louie Dog, and I made a little video about him.
If you’re interested in adopting Louie, please contact:
pawsunited.org.hk
Also an obligatory link to my favorite ever $SPY story:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
New Odd Lots!
When people talk about passive investing, the idea is often to dump money in financial technology that basically dates to the 1990s ($SPY)
So on this episode, @TheStalwart & I speak with
@patrick_oshag about the next big thing in passive.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Really great stuff from @tracyalloway on the bullwhip effect in supply chains in today’s Odd Lots letter which is relevant today’s NFP miss. While there wasn’t a stockpile,there was certainly a hiring bottleneck rush of labor demand that made wage equilibrium hard to pinpoint.
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway BIG NEWS out of China, Beijing's municipal government is looking to take control of ride-hailing giant Didi.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
New from me at THE OVERSHOOT (subscribers only):
What Is Going On in China?
theovershoot.co/p/what-is-goin…
<-- my thoughts on the potential implications of "common prosperity", which essentially encapsulates the bullish and bearish arguments about Xi Jinping in general
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway There's a big shift underway in money markets 👇👇�bloomberg.com/news/articles/…bR4
(and yes, we do talk about mayonnaise)
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
New Odd Lots and it's all about inflation!
Omair Sharif of @fcastofthemonth speaks with me & @TheStalwart about how inflation indices are constructed. Omair's an absolute expert on the all the details of CPI, PCE, etc. so definitely worth listening to!
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
At least 70 Chinese companies are now talking about 'common prosperity' in their earnings reports.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Asian PMIs contracting after new Covid outbreaks:
- China PMI drops to 49.2 in August from 50.3 in July
- Vietnam down to 40.2 from 45.1
- Thailand fell to 48.3 from 48.7
- Philippines fell to 46.4 from 50.4
- Malaysia and Indonesia expand
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Over the past 24 hours China has:
- Restricted the amount of time kids can play online games to a maximum of 3 hours/week
- Vowed to crack down on private equity
- Described the crackdowns as a "profound revolution" & "a return from the capital group to the masses of the people"
Powell's comments last week were totally previewed for us by @TheStalwart @tracyalloway a few weeks ago.
To "divorce" QE signaling from the overnight rate guide (i.e. avoid a misinterpretation like the taper tantrum) was discussed with their convo with Fed President Kaplan
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