Tracy Alloway
172,241 followers
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Jonathan Shroyer 
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NEW ODD LOTS:
How much trouble is the Chinese economy in right now?
@tracyalloway and I talked to @TomOrlik about the country’s mortgage mess, Covid zero, heatwave, drought, and its growing risk of economic isolation bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway 
I actually can’t wait. Money view (liquidity channel in phd speak) vs whatever Zoltan has been hypothesizing (commodities type basket) Perry is kind of a mentor to Pozsar, so this should be good twitter.com/tracyalloway/s…
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway 
Happy birthday to @TheStalwart, the best podcast co-host one could ask for. To wish him happy birthday, we are throwing a small party on Tuesday called a 'live recording of an Odd Lots episode on the future of the dollar.'
Please RSVP to: [email protected]
BREAKING:
315K new jobs. Unemployment rises to 3.7%. LFPR jumps.
298K was expected and 3.5% were expected.
bloomberg.com/news/live-blog…
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway What's the deal with Morocco's phosphate? Everyone always mentions how they have 75% of the world's supply, but nothing seems to come of it except for a few deals with Adnoc. How come? Does no one needs it yet? Sahara disputes?
To answer some questions - the event will be on LIVE <GO> for terminal clients. If you're not a client, you'll need to attend in person if you want to experience it live - otherwise you'll have to wait for the episode to come out.
A reminder that this is coming up next Tuesday! Attendance is free but you *must* RSVP to [email protected] and then fill out a very short form with your contact details to get on the list! twitter.com/tracyalloway/s…
Here's @FreightWaves with more on the collapse in truckload rates. Rates are "falling as demand deteriorates and capacity loosens."
freightwaves.com/news/race-to-t…
The world's safest dollars?
Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos says use of the Fed's RRP facility shows the extent of the safe haven dollar bid.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
What's that? Your team had record revenue and you beat all your internal targets for the past two years?
But I didn't *see you* do it in front of me, so it doesn't count.
So many things wrong with this (we're beating up on dogs now?!) but the most obviously false thing is the suggestion that bankers have not been 100% available to clients for the past two years during WFH. twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/sta…
Or, it's the tail end of the pandemic puppy boom. twitter.com/TheTranscript_…
The oil futures market is completely broken. Moving down $10 in a day for no apparent reason
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway Less than a week to go before our live event! twitter.com/tracyalloway/s…
NEW ODD LOTS:
It's the full @neelkashkari episode.
The President of the Minneapolis Fed talked to me and @tracyalloway about the Fed's commitment to defeating inflation, and why thinks the biggest risk here would be to declare victory prematurely. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway There's a new recession canary in the credit market coal mine, according to Morgan Stanley: leveraged loans.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
On Aug 15 @JavierBlas predicted what is now happening to Austrian energy supplier @WienEnergie. A multi-billion margin-call could easily blow up the company.
Statement around minute 30:00 on the #OddLots podcast hosted by @tracyalloway & @TheStalwart bloom.bg/3Tpa5q5 twitter.com/JavierBlas/sta…
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway Pakistan's Finance Minister Miftah Ismail said at a news conference on Monday that the government could “consider importing vegetables and other edible items from India” since the recent floods had destroyed crops across the country
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway EXCLUSIVE:
In an Odd Lots interview, @neelkashkari told me and @tracyalloway that he was happy to see the sharp Jackson Hole stock market selloff.
"People now understand the seriousness of our commitment to getting inflation back down to 2%.”
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway #BREAKING Third of Pakistan 'under water right now': climate change minister
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway I’ve listened to Odd Lots for a long time! So, it was so great to get to talk to @TheStalwart & @tracyalloway about today’s labor market.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway The correlation between US gas prices (inverted on this chart) and Biden's approval rating never ceases to amaze.
TIL there's a github tracking China's mortgage boycott:
github.com/WeNeedHome/Sum…
NEW ODD LOTS:
While inflation gets all the attention, there's still a lot of ambiguity about the state of the labor market.
@tracyalloway and I spoke to @USDOL Chief Economist @joelle_gamble, who helped clear it all up, and explain the current trends bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway A few people are asking if this is free. It is! You just need to RSVP to [email protected] so we can register you ahead of time.
🚨BIG ODD LOTS EVENT🚨@TheStalwartrt and I are very excited to announce that we'll be hosting a LIVE EPISODE TAPING featuring Zoltan Pozsar and Perry Mehrling, who'll join us to debate the future of the dollar.
This is coming up soon - ON TUESDAY, SEPT 6 - so RSVP nowyR
I mentioned the fertilizer production halt yesterday, didn't even think of the C02 though!
reuters.com/world/uk/uk-ur….
Water levels are forecast to fall again at a key transportation chokepoint on the Rhine:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… by @JWittels
New Odd Lots!
I can't believe it took us this long but @TheStalwart and I finally had @hmeisler on the show, talking about her approach to analyzing stocks - which famously includes making hand-drawn charts.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
A fertilizer company in the UK is halting production of ammonia thanks to high energy prices.
cfindustries.com/newsroom/2022/….
So the VIX has been ticking up lately, but really there has been a persistent demand for longer-dated volatility protection that never really went away
The 5yr-2yr SPX vol curve has been inverted since last October - a longer timeframe than it was inverted around the 2008 crisis
JUST IN: Japan will consider building next-generation nuclear power plants in a policy reversal that will embrace atomic energy to curb emissions and ensure future electricity supply, according to the Nikkei trib.al/8romBHo
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway All of the softness in US data relative to expectations is from either from housing or vibes (surveys)
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway If @surajpatelnyc pulls off the upset today, it will send an unmistakable message to DC about public anger towards the Foreign Dredge Act of 1906 twitter.com/surajpatelnyc/…
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway Intern notes from Odd Lots podcast with @circlepay CEO Jeremy Allaire on:
- $USDC & Regulations 👨🏻⚖️
- Superpowers of crypto money ⚡️
- OFAC, obligations, etc 📑
And much more@jerallaireire <&g@TheStalwartart <&g@tracyallowaywReE
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway MAP OF THE DAY: Day-ahead electricity prices in Europe are eye-watering, with lots of countries setting record highs for today. Notable to see the Nordics close to €400 per MWh, and Germany at €600. Before 2020, anything above €75-100 was considered expensive| #EnergyCrisis
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway I know some will complain about percentage change of a percentage, but this is a fun chart from @bespokeinvest showing just why the current environment is so unusual for fixed income.
We've had bond volatility before, but never from such low yields. 10yr yields more than doubled
It is possible to care about the environment and be critical of ESG. In fact, I'd argue that being critical of ESG and caring about the environment go hand in hand.
(Some previously written criticisms here: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…) twitter.com/TheStalwart/st…
NEW ODD LOTS:
@jerallaire may be one of the most powerful people in all of crypto right now.
The CEO of Circle, which is behind the USDC stablecoin, talked to me and @tracyalloway about the incredible rise of stables, forks, law enforcement, and more. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway NEW ODD LOTS:
The case for building a super-grid.
If we're going to massively increase renewable power generation, then we need a lot more wires.
@tracyalloway and I talked to @RobGramlichDC about the grid of the future.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway NEW ODD LOTS:
How Bad Will The Energy Crisis Get In Europe This Winter?
It's the return of @JavierBlas
and @alexbhturnbull.
They talk to me and @tracyalloway about all things European energy crisis, and its ripple effects across the globe..
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway This is an incredible deep dive into the price of mayonnaise from @tracyalloway.
You gotta read it. You'll learn so much about how tricky it is to measure inflation, even at the level of a single item.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway Mayonomics is my new favorite discipline. Everyone has an individual CPI depending on their personal consumption preferences and yes, mine is just mayo twitter.com/tracyalloway/s…
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway this piece from @tracyalloway is great. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway **REVISITING THE GREAT MAYONNAISE INFLATION MYSTERY**
Last year we dove deep into price changes of a single condiment. A year on, it’s time to check in on mayo and what it can tell us about gauging inflation.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@PIMCO @tracyalloway He also talked a lot about housing and mortgages in particular. He doesn't see a catastrophe, but he now sees years of negative real home price appreciation, and possibly even negative nominal home price growth across the US.
We wrote about that here:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Retweeted by Tracy Alloway BIG NEW ODD LOTS:
It's @PIMCO CIO Dan Ivascyn
He spoke to me and @tracyalloway about how he sees markets and the economy right now. What concerns him. Where the opportunities may be. What he's buying and more.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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