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Shell Capital Management, LLC

The current level of the VIX index has settled down to a lower historical level suggesting the market expects the future range of the price of the S&P 500 to be lower. asymmetryobservations.com/2018/09/25/vix…
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VIX level shows the stock market’s expectation of future volatility asymmetryobservations.com/2018/09/25/vix…
Investors underreact to new information because they anchor to their prior beliefs and prior information, which causes a lag before the market fully digests the information eventually reflected in the stock price. asymmetryobservations.com/definitions/in…
Time Series Momentum means the direction of a security or assets own price trend is a future predictor of its future trend. Applying time series momentum is a simple method of trend following. asymmetryobservations.com/definitions/tr…
The -10% or so decline in February seemed to catch a lot of investors off guard, but it wasn't nearly as stimulating as the -15% declines in Aug 2015 and Jan 2016 when 80% of stocks were in a downtrend.
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But, keep in mind after the majority of stocks are in an uptrend or downtrend, they eventually reverse the other direction. Increasing participation is good but eventually, it can reach an extreme.
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Stock market breadth is improving as more stocks are participating in the uptrend as evidenced by 73% of stocks above their 200 day moving average. It also shows the broad participation up until February with 83% of stocks were in an uptrend.
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Absolute Momentum applies the actual the direction of a security or market to its own price trend is a future predictor of its future trend. Absolute momentum looks at a stock or markets own rate of change in its price trend. asymmetryobservations.com/definitions/tr…
Cross-Sectional Momentum applies a relative strength measure to a universe of stocks or markets (asset classes) to determine past winners and predicts those relative strength leaders will continue to outperform the laggards in the future. asymmetryobservations.com/definitions/tr…
Momentum seeking investment strategies intend to invest when a market starts to perform well (exhibit momentum) and exit when the trend in momentum beings to reverse or it starts to lose money. asymmetryobservations.com/definitions/tr…
At this time ten years ago, the decline in stocks was just getting started. By now, #LehmanBrothers was failing and the stock market had declined over -20%... but the market dislocation got a lot worse. Note the 2% between the $SPY and the S&P 500 Total Return Index.
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"What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.” The enthusiasm for pot stock crypto/bitcoin reminds me of the 90's. Most of the highest stocks aren't around today so easily show their charts, but here's one I remember:
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"What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.”
Rising interest rates driving up Financials, pushing down Utilities.
We believe investments and markets require active risk management to avoid larger losses and to create the positive asymmetric risk/reward investors want. To follow Mike Shell, founder, Chief Investment Officer, and Portfolio Manager at Shell Capital, follow: @MikeWShell
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It's interesting to see what investment strategies people have done in the past that created good results, but it may also be useful to consider the current conditions and imagine what may do well in the future. #TuesdayThoughts
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Stock market weakness today came from Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication sectors.
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Who do you think will win today? #PHIvsTB Tampa Bay Buccanneers #GoBucs or Philadelphia Eagles #FlyEaglesFly
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We believe investments and markets require active risk management to avoid larger losses and to create the positive asymmetric risk/reward investors want. To follow Mike Shell, founder, Chief Investment Officer, and Portfolio Manager at Shell Capital, follow: @MikeWShell
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This is why I tactically shift between global markets based on their directional price trends rather than a fixed buy and hold global asset allocation. asymmetryobservations.com/2018/09/08/wha…
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What direction do you believe the stock market will trend over the next six months?
Very cool simulation to understand the potential flood and flow of a hurricane like #FlorenceHurricane2018
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This is why I tactically shift between global markets based on their directional price trends rather than a fixed buy and hold global asset allocation. asymmetryobservations.com/2018/09/08/wha…
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So far in 2018, there hasn't been a huge advantage of holding the top few stocks in the First Trust Dow Jones Internet ETF $FDN over the individual stocks $NFLX $AMZN $FB $GOOG $PYPL
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One driver of the downtrend is gold $GLD and emerging markets $EEM is the rising U.S. Dollar $USD, but the Dollar has reached a point I wouldn't be surprised to see it trend down and emerging markets and gold trend up...
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So far in 2018, there hasn't been an enormous advantage of holding the top few stocks in the First Trust Dow Jones Internet ETF. $FDN $NFLX $AMZN $FB $GOOG $PYPL
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I call this #momentum high and low. Sorting out the leaders from the laggards by relative strength. Only time will tell if the trends continue or reverse. #trendfollowing #sectorrotation
Retweeted by Shell Capital Management, LLC
So far in 2018, there hasn't been an enormous advantage of holding the top few stocks in the First Trust Dow Jones Internet ETF. $FDN $NFLX $AMZN $FB $GOOG $PYPL
One driver of the downtrend is gold $GLD and emerging markets $EEM is the rising U.S. Dollar $USD. However, the Dollar has reached a point we wouldn't be surprised to see it trend down and emerging markets and gold trend up...
@NHC_Atlantic The probability of tropical storm-force winds from #florencehurricane has broadened to now include north #Florida
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Hearing names like Mexico, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar may highlight home country bias for some investors. Home country bias is the tendency for investors to favor companies from their own countries over those from other countries or regions. asymmetryobservations.com/2018/09/08/wha…
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Saudi Arabia was previously classified as a smaller frontier market, but, this summer MSCI announced it will include the MSCI Saudi Arabia Index in the MSCI #EmergingMarkets Index. $EEM #GlobalMacro asymmetryobservations.com/2018/09/08/wha…
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The strongest trending top momentum emerging markets countries so far in 2018 are Mexico, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. asymmetryobservations.com/2018/09/08/wha…
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While the United States is the single largest economy in the world, according to JP Morgan it accounts for only a small fraction of global GDP and just over 35% of the world’s capital markets. asymmetryobservations.com/2018/09/08/wha…
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We can see the downtrends in a different perspective when we view their drawdowns as a % off high over the past year. asymmetryobservations.com/2018/09/08/wha…
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Emerging markets countries down the most year-to-date include Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia, Brazil, Philippines, Chile, Poland, and Peru. asymmetryobservations.com/2018/09/08/wha…
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I want to find potentially profitable price trends, so I increase my opportunity to find them when I give myself more options by including a global universe of ETFs. asymmetryobservations.com/2018/09/08/wha…
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You can probably see why I include the individual countries in my global universe rather than just the broad emerging markets index ETF that includes 24 countries. asymmetryobservations.com/2018/09/08/wha…
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To get a better understanding of what is driving the downtrend, we draw the % off high charts to see the drawdown trend. asymmetryobservations.com/2018/09/08/wha…
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South Korea and China are the primary downtrends that are trending close to the emerging markets index ETF. Taiwan and India have stronger relative momentum. asymmetryobservations.com/2018/09/08/wha…
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In Emerging Markets Reached a Bear Market Level we see the emerging markets index has declined -20%, which is considered to be in bear market territory. asymmetryobservations.com/2018/09/08/wha…
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Here are the 2018 price trends of the emerging markets ETF and the top four countries that make up 68% of the emerging markets index ETF exposure. asymmetryobservations.com/2018/09/08/wha…
Retweeted by Shell Capital Management, LLC
This is why we tactically shift between global markets based on their directional price trends rather than a fixed buy and hold global asset allocation. asymmetryobservations.com/2018/09/08/wha…
“I have two basic rules about winning in trading as well as in life: 1. If you don’t bet, you can’t win. 2. If you lose all your chips, you can’t bet.” – Larry Hite
 
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