Last night: Heat won; but Hawks covered as an underdog
… Ending a 68 GAME STREAK (w/Hawks as a dog) that the spread DIDN’T MATTER!
Details (68 games)
26 outright wins
0-42 Against The Spread when losing as a dog
Atlanta’s plus-points hadn’t been enough since Feb 12, 2021!
Got to give it to @FoxSportsRadio - promoting STRAIGHT OUTTA VEGAS at the Super Bowl (today on Radio Row) and I haven’t even left Las Vegas!
Listen to STRAIGHT OUTTA VEGAS
Weekdays 6 ET (on 225 FSR stations nationwide)
Baltimore vs Green Bay
16 total drives (not counting 2 kneel-outs)
4 of those drives gained NO 1st Downs
Of the remaining 12 drives
(1) 70 yard (7+ min) drive (to start the game) for 0 points
Analytics (math models)
are based upon
Respected models (best guesses)
* provide the most accurate insight into vital scenarios
* pose a grave risk if their level of uncertainty is not acknowledged [see 2008 Housing Crisis)
20+ years in Vegas could turn a man cynical -- but not me!
TOGETHER no problem is too big (world hunger, dare I say?) if only we could somehow harness & redirect the collective mental energy used by the sports media to explain away Trevor Lawrence's crappy QB play. #dreamer
🎙️@RJinVegass: "What these odds are telling us, shockingly, is that Alabama could get in with two losses. That they could lose to Georgia and get in...How could that be?...I'm having an epiphany Best Bet...Alabama to NOT make the playoffs +115."
TOP team entering the year
When they win = "See, one of the best."
When they lose = "No, that's due to Excuse[X]" or "Unavoidable variance"
NOT TOP team entering
Win = "Lucky"
Lose = "See, not one of the best"
I'm certainly not immune to this.
Tennessee = impressive
A strong case can be made that the best AFC team is not as good as:
Green Bay Packers
That's 5 NFC teams that could be reasonable ranked ahead of the best AFC team (whoever that is).
#ColdCash > Hot Takes
Asking for a friend
(with a huge Mia +14 &⬇️parlay)
2:21 left; Mia down 9
🏈 Own 19 (3rd & 26)
Win% model: Mia <1%
(rest of game matters only to bettors)
Is it wrong from me to think a personal apology from Tua is called for? It might make me - I mean, my friend - feel better.d
279 QBs w/30+ plays in non-garbage time (defined as win% NOT <10% nor >90%) since 1999 (via rbsdm.com)
📈 Mac Jones ranked #1 MOST ACCURATE (measured by completion% over expectation)
⏬ Zack Wilson is the LEAST EFFECIENT (measured by EPA) ... ranking 279 of 279!
Each season @JFowlerESPN polls team insiders and produces position rankings.
QB Top 10 is interesting - even more so (IMO) is the RANGE of rankings for each (what's the best/worst a trusted expert could rank this player). Here's a hopefully helpful visualization of the data.
+/- points (net score when on floor) for #Bucks
FINALS SO FAR
(two games combined):
Giannis +4 points
Jeff Teague -2
Bryn Forbes -8
Pat Connaughton -12
Bobby Portis -15
Brook Lopez -18
Jrue Holiday -19
P.J. Tucker -19
Khris Middleton -26 points
How did the rest of the Bucks do without Giannis?
COMPARED TO OVERALL REG SEASON AVG
Name: (Reg Season w/o) | (2 playoff gms w/o)
Portis: +4.3 | +5.6
Teague: +3.8 | -1.1
Lopez: +2.9 | +10.7
Pat C: +2.7 | +4.2
Holiday: +2.4 | +3.3
Middleton: +2.1 | +8.6
Forbes: -.4 | -6.0
Game One: Suns favored ...
🤒 Earlier today, Giannis was Doubtful: Bucks +6
💉 Then upgraded to QUESTIONABLE (currently): Bucks +5.5
(surprisingly small 1/2 point move only -- meaning even if he plays, Vegas is skeptical that The Freak can be effective tonight.)