Paul Kedrosky

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Because a few people have asked, the event was two weeks ago. Full results here:…
58 year old dude recently won a 100-mile trail race here in SoCal, with 14k feet of climbing, against a competitive field. I am in awe.
It's Sunday afternoon, so sat outside reading and talking surrogate endpoints in clinical data. As one does. #IMustBeFunAtParties
On the Jornet front, I wouldn't put anything past him, but I can't imagine him in the top 5 at his age, and years past his UTMB winning era. But .... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Some surprises in Western States 100 mile race this weekend in its non-Walmsley incarnation. I am mostly reminded that I'm looking hugely forward to UTMB Mont Blanc in August, which will include Walmsley, Thevenard, Capell, etc. Oh yes, and the return of some guy named Jornet.
Global issue—not a U.S. one—in a complex system with tight coupling and near-zero slack: Air Travel This Summer Is Expensive, Messy—and Booming…
On this date in literary history: Shirley Jackson's classic short story The Lottery comes out in The New Yorker. Still hugely affecting.…
Btw, lots of interesting speakers and books, and you can the just-completed program here…
Wish I could have attended this session at the just-completed Chalke Valley History Festival: SPIKE MILLIGAN’S WAR AGAINST HITLER, THE BBC, AND EVERYONE ELSE Ian Hislop with Charlie Higson
Ran an 8-rep max intensity fartlek workout today. I now feel like I'm disintegrating, like half the MCU characters after the snap.
Sad news. As I've said here previously, Mike Davis was hugely influential to me as a writer, especially on urbanism and risk.…
Two of my favorites bit of trivial from The Wire involve Stringer Bell: - What course was Stringer Bell taking at community college? - What classic book was on Bell's shelf when the MCU raided it in Season 3?
When I see fartleks on my training program for the next day, I feel like Major Rawls on The Wire any time he sees Jimmy McNulty: Oh, FFS ... you again.
Speaking of REI crowds, and I was saying this to @hjluks earlier today, but the level of central obesity in evidence was bonkers. I feel like met syn has somehow gotten worse in the last five years, especially among men. I'm not used to seeing this in California.
Was briefly at REI this morning and the crowds of people buying hiking/biking/kayaking/camping gear—talking Yosemite! Sierras! Colorado!—are just gobsmacking. My main takeaway: Go nowhere near where all these people are going, because it will be batshit.
¹ Small sample, but ... Training Progression in Recreational Cyclists: No Linear Dose-Response Relationship with Training Load…
To reinforce the voodoo point, or at least to introduce some sanity, a recent paper¹ shows that TRIMP's relationship to fitness improvements isn't linear, and is perhaps less useful than TID for we recreational hacks.
To be clear, the graph shows past workouts and their load consequences, plus planned efforts and their hoped-for effect, as I build over next few months.
These are all somewhat voodoo, of course, so I mostly use them to manage training intensity, track time in HR zones, manage load, and focus on judicious insertions of intensity.
¹ Training Impulse: the product of training volume, in minutes, and training intensity, measured as average heart rate. ² Chronic Training Load: rolling average of your last 7 weeks training load ³ Time in Distribution: time in minutes in target HR zones.
Transitioning from mtb-ing back to running for some upcoming races, so busy climbing Mount TRIMP¹/CTL²/TID³/etc.
A New Satellite Tool (see Shows You How the Planet’s Landscape Changes Day by Day…
More here from New Scientist on issues with glycemic index, based on the same work…
Tracking glycemic index in foods is hot, but it is a fairly suspect way of thinking about your diet, according to new research presented at a major nutrition conference this week. The response variability across different people limits its reliability.…
Btw, the referenced paper about action bias among soccer goalkeepers remains one of my favorites, one I reference regularly: Don't just do something, stand there, etc. Action bias among elite soccer goalkeepers: The case of penalty kicks…
Action bias, soccer goalkeepers, and the case against multivitamins…
I have recommended the indispensable AirStatus app for Mac before, but I'll reiterate that rec now, given that it has updated: The app sits in your Mac tray and monitors local air quality stations, showing current AQI and when it's safest to be out.
Relatedly, we own a Hyundai Ioniq 5, and it's well-done.
On Hyundai's EV surge,from Bloomberg Green: - Hyundai sells more units than Leaf, Chevrolet Bolt and every other EV on the market not made by Tesla - Few dealers now have any in stock - It took Tesla decade to deliver as many EVs as Hyundai managed in six months
I'm still not sure people understand how ginormous China's wind & solar plans are This year it will install a record 156GW, says Bloomberg, citing a govt-linked thinktank For context, 156GW is more than any country in the world has IN TOTAL (bar US, CN)…
Retweeted by Paul Kedrosky
Power systems & positive feedbacks, with both hydroelectric and nuclear suffering with droughts: Drought hits Italy's hydroelectric plants…
The latest BLS survey of how Americans lie about spending their time reminded me of this classic movie dialogue: Teddy: I'll be waiting for you on the other side, relaxing with my thoughts. Gordie: You use your left hand or your right hand for that? - Stand By Me (1986)
Got looking at some of Ray Dalio's old Daily Notes with his Bridgewater team from the 2007/8 financial crisis. Say what you will about his current reincarnation, but his team then had prescient analysis of what was happening, where it was going, etc. Remarkable to re-read.
This isn't to say that there aren't many hugely useful elective procedures, because most are, but it is depressing how poorly surgeons engage with sham/placebo data on bioplausible procedures for which there is a billable code and an eager patient.
I feel like I run a service where friends tell me they're going in for an elective surgery, I pull up the (usually questionable) data on said procedure, and they wonder why their surgeon didn't tell them that. Happens almost weekly.
During last week's #heatwave in the Alps (15-21 June) Swiss #glaciers lost more than 300 million tons by snow/ice melt. With this melt water one Olympic swimming pool (2.5 million liters) could have been filled every 5 seconds. During extremes glaciers are important to hydrology!
Retweeted by Paul Kedrosky
Got haircut today, and ended up in a long conversation about ... high yield debt, leverage ratios, and private equity with stylist whose husband runs a brew pub that over-leveraged and is being rolled up. There is no escape.
Big bump-up in Amazon Associates commissions just announced as Amazon preps to move merch for Prime Day.
Speaking of leaning in markets, and its consequences, commodities had become a one-way trade for many, which never turns out well. Wheat has now crashed to below pre-Ukraine invasion levels. A month ago I had someone tell me they newly owned no equities, only commodities.
With the California snowpack now fully melted out, Western Sierra reservoirs in California are at around 80% of normal, which is worth noting.
The only parts of California not in severe drought, or worse, are the very coastal tips in the north and south, which is weird and unusual.
To add some more context, during the period where I was at my peak (current, sigh) V02max, as circled here, I ran four races. You gotta harvest fitness while you can. But you can't safely hold it there, so I let it go and am building back again.
Terrific by Nat, on how Australia and California are postcards from the future of a decarbonizing power grid.…
¹ My current peak VO2max is probably not far off 53 or so, but I do miss my late-20s cross-country ski race peak of more like low/mid 60s.
A window on training/detraining: 9 months of my (running) VO2max. You can see training cycles, as well as detraining cycles, inside & outside of competitive periods. Leaving aside the correct magnitude¹, because it's device- (not lab-) estimated, it's still a useful perspective.
While I mentioned this here a week ago, it keeps coming up in discussions, so here it is again: Your shrinking aerobic "slack" matters immensely over time.…
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