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Paul Krugman

Since I mentioned both David Malpass and the wrongness of the inflation hawks earlier today,here's Malpass demanding that the Fed hike rates in 2011, when unemployment was 9 percent. Now he's undersecretary of Treasury, because wrong is right in the GOP…
This didn't come out of nowhere. Mann and Ornstein tried to tell you; I warned back in 2003 that the GOP had become a radical force that no longer accepted the norms of democracy, but people said I was "shrill"…
Via @ThePlumLineGS, this. The entire GOP now consists of apparatchiks; they've built their careers on toeing the party line, and neither obvious obstruction of justice nor clear evidence of collusion with a foreign power will make them take a stand
But Trump isn't looking for good advice, he's looking for sycophancy, praise for whatever he does. And that's something Kudlow can certainly provide
Which is why the European Union, which seems to be Trump's current focus of enmity, has also seen a steady decline in manufacturing as a share of total employment 7/
But how much does trade have to do with this decline? The US used to run roughly balanced trade; now it runs a deficit of about 3 percent of GDP. If that deficit were closed, most of the shift would be in manufacturing 3/
Once upon a time manufacturing really was a third of employment; these days it's well under 10 percent 2/
Not the first to point it out, but calling PA-18 "steel country" is generations out of date. Vastly more people employed in health and education than in primary metals; three times as many in hospitals alone. Shares of total employment in Pburg:
So are they just incompetent economists, or sycophants who tell the boss what he wants to hear? Yes 3/
I'm not saying that trade was blameless in the woes of U.S. workers; labor-intensive imports widened inequality, and the sheer speed of change was disruptive and painful. But you want to get the story straight 7/…
What about imports, as opposed to the trade balance? Non petroleum imports -- we really aren't talking about oil here -- rose steadily as a share of the economy, including during the good years, until about 2010, and have leveled off since 5/
And the big move into trade deficits came even later than that, beginning in the Reagan years. Really really big deficits came during the Bush years, largely reflecting the housing bubble; they've been smaller since 4/
The bad times for US workers started much later, in the 1970s. Here's the real wage of nonsupervisory workers, with 1973=1 3/
Start with a widespread misconception: the belief that during the good decades after WWII, the U.S. had high tariffs. Actually no: most of the big drop in tariffs from their 1930s peak took place by the mid-1950s…
So, what's this about? After all, the US government's own guide to exporters says "U.S. exports to the European Union enjoy an average tariff of just three percent. "… 1/
I had some further thoughts on trade, but I guess they’ll have to wait
Tune in tonight for the LIVE STREAM. February 28, 2018 - 6:30pm, NYC. CUNY Graduate Center and Stone Center present: “U.S. Tax Reform: Where Are We Now?”- with @paulkrugman @lilybatch @lenburman @Kotlikoff and @Kathleen_Hays / @GC_CUNY / @stone_lis
Retweeted by Paul Krugman
This suggests that we need more revenue to pay for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid (much of whose expenses are for elderly and disabled). But revenue at periods of more or less full employment keeps falling instead 2/
A note on the folly of tax cuts. The US govt is an insurance company with an army; its expenses dominated by the elderly -- and the ratio of >65 to working-age is rising sharply 1/
David Beckworth has a very good followup… on my retrospective on the liquidity trap…. He notes that the Fed has effectively promised that QE will be reversed, which is precisely what makes it ineffective
Meanwhile: the US government, as the saying goes, is a giant insurance company with an army. Its expenses are dominated by programs for the elderly. And it has no business cutting taxes given the demographic reality.
Still at monetary policy conference. Much talk about r* -- the interest rate consistent with full employment. Fear is that demographics have depressed r*, so that monetary policy not sufficient. So worth noting that even China now has shrinking working-age population
Useful survey, based on a lot of work. Basically, Clinton and Obama did appropriate countercyclical policy: deficits when economy is depressed, surpluses when it's booming. Bush II and Trump did the opposite…
Third, current status of Medicaid expansion 3/
Second, traffic deaths -- yes, there's a car death belt 2/
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