Nick Timiraos

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Trea Turner was asked in his presser about the main difference he's noticed playing for the Dodgers. It's the number of fans, particularly on the road. They were so loud on a double earlier this year in STL, he thought he flew out.
Retweeted by Nick Timiraos
The start of the taper hasn’t had much suspense since Powell said they expect to be done buying by the middle of next year. This implies a greater degree of cruise control for the asset purchase policy and makes the taper announcement less sensitive to individual data reports
The September jobs report, despite the subdued headline hiring figure, should keep the Fed on track to announce the bond taper at its next meeting in early November…
My first thought on the jobs report was Ugh! But taking a closer look, the job market continues to recover quickly. And with Delta winding down, I expect some big job gains dead ahead.
Retweeted by Nick Timiraos
September payrolls rose 194,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8%. August was revised up to 366,000 from 235,000.
Brainard didn't shy away last week from hinting at some frustration on the issue of climate-related financial policy: “It’s an area where the U.S. has been behind, and we need to catch up."…
Last month, Powell said a taper would be feasible in November if “the overall situation is appropriate for this.” It seemed like this was an oblique reference to the potential for a debt-limit debacle to interfere with their plans.…
By removing the risk of a debt-limit imbroglio lingering into early November, the most significant obstacle for the Fed to taper its asset purchases at next month's meeting could be eliminated.…
Lael Brainard: Large banks should prepare for supervisory guidance from the Fed about how to manage climate risks. Scenario analysis is a likely next step from the central bank -->…
How it started How it's going
Besides the win, the best part of that game is that the fans were able to attend. #RepeatLA
Headline from Goldman Sachs political-economy strategist Alec Phillips: "The Only Thing Harder Than Increasing the Debt Limit Is Increasing It Twice"
McConnell floats a short-term ("into December") increase in the debt limit…
Eurasia Group analyst @lieber2k says the most likely person to replace Powell as Fed chair, if Biden doesn't nominate him for a second term, would be *Yellen* and not Brainard because Yellen would be more easily confirmed by the Senate.
As the paper notes, basis trades had become an attractive way in recent years—as the Treasury needed to issue more debt to finance $1 trillion deficits—for investors to take down this supply at rates that were relatively favorable for the U.S.
From the paper: "Although hedge fund selling of Treasury securities in Q1 2020 ... was sizable, it was not outsized relative to the selling by other types of investors such as the foreign and mutual fund sectors."
New Fed research estimates that rapid unwinding of basis trades by hedge funds in March 2020 led to $173 billion in net selling of U.S. Treasurys That's considerably more than the $35 billion estimate cited in last year's Financial Stability report
Democrats said they were discussing a possible one-day elimination of the 60-vote filibuster in order to raise the debt ceiling, or potentially a permanent carve-out that would make it against the Senate rules to filibuster debt ceiling increases…
"I'm opposed to it and I don't believe we should consider it seriously. It's really a gimmick," says @SecYellen on the trillion dollar coin proposal.
Retweeted by Nick Timiraos
Sen. Elizabeth Warren asked the Securities and Exchange Commission to investigate whether personal financial investments by senior Federal Reserve officials, including Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, violated insider-trading protocols…
The Biden administration wants crypto companies that issue stablecoins to register as banks…
A buyout boom fueled by easy money and a looming hike in the capital-gains tax is sweeping Wall Street deal making to highs not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis…
Core consumer prices, using the Fed's preferred gauge, rose 3.6% from one year earlier in August. Using 24-month annualized prices (to avoid base effects, per Brainard), core inflation is up at a 2.6% rate…
BIF! BBB! Byrd! What is all this stuff? I don't blame if you're confused. Here's your congressional fiscal glossary. Ideas welcome for further entries...…
Retweeted by Nick Timiraos
Powell on minting the coin: "That's not a question for me." Yellen: "I believe that the only way to handle the debt ceiling is for Congress to raise it and show the world, the financial markets and the public that we're a country that will pay our bills when we incur them."
Sign of the times: Dollar Tree said it would start selling products at $1.25 and $1.50 or other prices slightly above $1 in some of its stores…
Powell on labor force participation. "My prior would be that we will get back a big chunk of the so-called retirees." "The U.S. has low labor force participation" relative to its peers. "This is not something that has to be that way. It's not something that's good."
Yellen is asked if she would favor getting rid of the debt limit altogether. Yellen: "Yes, I would."
He began "I don't think so." Here's the longer quote: I think the historical record is thick with examples of underdoing it, and pretty much in every cycle, we just tend to underestimate the damage and underestimate the need for a response. I think we've avoided that this time.
Powell is asked "Are you overdoing it?" Powell's answer: "The historical record is thick with examples of underdoing it."
Powell almost certainly has the votes to be confirmed for a second term without Warren’s support, but liberal Democrats opposed to Powell hope to turn the reappointment debate into a referendum on Biden’s broader fidelity to progressive politics…
Warren’s explicit opposition to Powell suggests he remains the frontrunner to be appointed as Fed chair next year but also raises the stakes by rallying progressives in opposition…
Powell: "Even if these trades were in compliance with existing rules, the problem is the rules. The practice and disclosure needs to be improved."
Sen. Raphael Warnock on the resignations of two Fed bank presidents. "This is a blow" to the reputation of the Fed. Powell: "We don't like to be having these concerns raised." "100% sure" that the Fed will change its policies. "The appearance is obviously unacceptable."
Powell is asked if FOIA sunlight provisions should be extended to cover the reserve banks. He says he'd like time to consider his answer.
Warren: "So far, you've been lucky" that there hasn't been a financial crisis like 2008. "Your record gives me grave concern." "You are a dangerous man to head the Federal Reserve."
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who voted against Jay Powell's confirmation on the Banking Committee in 2017 (it was a 22-1 vote), says she will oppose his nomination if Biden reappoints Powell for a second term.
Powell: "We need those supply blockages to alleviate to abate before inflation can come down. We do believe that it will." He says most of the price pressures are still from a "very small category of items."
Powell is asked if the inflation we're seeing is broader and more structural than earlier in the year. "Yes, I think it's fair to say that it is." Supply bottlenecks "have not only not gotten better, they've actually gotten worse." He points to ships parked off the port of L.A.
Yellen, in her prepared remarks, says the economy should reach full employment next year.
Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) opens Tuesday's hearing with Yellen and Powell by criticizing Powell for saying the economy has nearly achieved "substantial further progress" this year in the labor market. He says it's too soon to consider reversing the Fed's easy-money policies.
Treasury faces an estimated $75 billion in payments, including to Social Security and Medicare beneficiaries and tax refunds after that through the end of October It then faces $80 billion in expected payments on Nov. 1, including $14 billion on the US debt via @BPC_Bipartisan
Yellen says the government could exhaust its emergency cash-conservation measures around Oct. 18 if the debt limit isn't raised…
U.S. home prices rose a staggering 20% in the 12 months through July (though the rate of increase is likely to slow in the second half of this year)…
How the debt limit stand-off is already distorting financial markets: Investors are demanding more yield to hold some short-term Treasurys with the greatest risk of delayed payment. Meanwhile, they are driving down yields on a dwindling supply of others.…
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren resigned in the morning and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan in the afternoon. Both men separately arrived at their decision without being forced by Fed chief Jay Powell, said people familiar with the matter…
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