Neil Irwin

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It’s like buying a seat cover in Paris.…
(Building on a point made by @conorsen earlier on this website)
Thesis: the massive Powerball pot and upcoming Taylor Swift are both disinflationary forces. Crowding out routine goods and services spending by millions of people, transferring it to a single very rich person who presumably saves the vast majority/spends out slowly over time.
(I should add that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is comfortably in positive territory for Q4, at +3.6% as of yesterday)
It would be a hell of a thing if we end up with negative GDP in three out of the four quarters of 2022, but with every month featuring 200k+ payrolls and no NBER-declared recession.
Susan Collins of @BostonFed on Friday signals support for smaller rate increases, saying it's "time to shift focus from how rapidly to raise rates, or the pace, to how high". Later on, "we’ll need to shift again to focus on how long to hold rates at that level" @BrookingsInst
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how state/local government job recovery compares to private payroll recovery
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Payrolls growth continues steady deceleration, which is what the Biden administration and the Fed want to see. Three-month rolling average now +289k, down from +539k in March.
Wage growth speeds up a bit. 0.4%, after two months at 0.3%. Year-over-year average hourly earnings still decelerating, though, to 4.7% from 5% (it peaked in the 12 months ended in March, at 5.6%)
Higher unemployment rate is for bad reasons—labor force participation edged down, "not in labor force" up by 201k.
+261k on payrolls, 3.7% unemployment rate.
October jobs numbers out in five minutes. Consensus forecast: +200k on payrolls, unemployment edging up to 3.6% (from 3.5), average hourly earnings with steady growth at +0.3%.
Obviously we'll see what happens post-jobs report, but for now two-year yields keep on chugging higher. Now at 4.76%, a new cycle high.
The blue check controversy, explained. Lots of truth in this here thread.…
Is it just me or are the announcers underplaying the no-hitter aspect of this World Series game? Seems like kind of a big deal!
"Stranded assets" refer to assets which turn into liabilities. As in: remote work makes offices unprofitable. We need a term for the opposite: a "rescued liability." As in: my 2.75% mortgage became a rescued liability, it's now actually worth a lot.
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Powell: "I don't think wages are the principal story for why prices are going up"
Downshift to 50bps rate increase could be either of next two meetings. Open possibility for December, not a done deal.
Powell says incoming data suggests terminal rate will be higher than thought. So dovish on path but hawkish on destination.
Powell: "We are moving policy stance purposefully"
Light blue tie today for Powell, not the standard purple. Do not know if that his hawkish or dovish.
75 basis points per Fed meeting was transitory.
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Fed "will take into account cumulative tightening," lags, and economic and financial developments in determining pace of future rate hikes.…
Another 0.75 ppt rate hike, but this time giving some hints that the pace of hikes will slow in future.
It's amazing that after months of monetary tightening and escalating recession chatter, the labor market still has so many boomtime features. Huge numbers of job openings, low levels of layoffs/discharges, very low jobless claims, etc.
Hmmmm. Job openings INCREASES to 10.7m, +437k. The opposite direction you want to see to believe a story of "labor market softening through fewer openings."
Here comes JOLTS in 2 minutes.
The Millennial who feels entitled to 4% mortgage rates in 2024 is the Baby Boomer who felt entitled to 5% interest on their savings in 2014.
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So the Elon Twitter deal closed and his book-length article on crypto published this week. I think @matt_levine deserves a proper vacation at long last.
One likely possibility: “hard landing” for housing and other interest rate sensitive sectors, and “soft landing” for everyone else. Not ideal, but could have been averted if fiscal policy helped the Fed.
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Employment cost index up 1.2% in Q3, +5.0% year-on-year. Consistent with the story of nominal wage growth that is high but not in some upward wage-price spiral.
Core PCE inflation steady at +0.5% in September, +5.1% year-on-year.
New economic data dropping in three minutes. Consensus forecasts: Core PCE inflation +0.5% in September. Employment cost index +1.2% in third quarter.
First Warren, then Sherrod Brown, now Hickenlooper. Democratic opposition to the Fed's tightening campaign is becoming more mainstream. Powell's next visit to Capitol Hill could get testy.…
The dollar size of the U.S. economy is now about $1.6 trillion larger than the pre-pandemic trend. Huge aggregate demand overshoot. @jasonfurman @Neil_Irwin @MESandbu…
Retweeted by Neil Irwin
US Q3'22 GDP: Net exports added 2.77% to growth, which because of a soaring dollar will not continue. Thus, the trade data that acted as a drag during 1H'22 bolstered growth in Q3'22 and will not be a tailwind moving into 2023.
Retweeted by Neil Irwin
Yep. Seems like a real problem how much of the brunt of macro stabilization policy falls on a single sector.…
Residential investment fell at a 26.4% annual rate in Q3, comparable to the worst of the pandemic (-27.4%) and the global financial crisis (-33.6% in Q4 '08)
You really see the story of the slowing economy in final sales to domestic private purchasers Q4 '21: +2.6% annualized Q1 '22: +2.1% Q2 '22: +0.5% Q3 '22: +0.1%
Net exports contributed 2.77ppt to GDP growth, or more than 100% of the total, as the trade deficit receded in the third quarter.
+2.6% annualized on third quarter GDP.
ECB goes with the 0.75ppt rate hike that was anticipated. Next up, third quarter US GDP. Forecasts are for +2.4% annualized.
If you like cutting-edge analysis like this, also follow me for my sports takes, such as that teams should try to score more points while allowing fewer.
The way I see it, Meta's problem is that sales are down by 4%, while expenses are up by 19%. You want the reverse of that. I'm just a bold truth-teller, calling it like I see it.
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