Nate Silver

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Is Dobbs + Jan. 6 a "special circumstance" equal in magnitude to 9/11? That's a very apples-to-oranges comparison but I'd tend to say no; people forget how profoundly 9/11 changed public opinion. But is it comparable to Lewinsky? Certainly. It's bigger, I'd think.
The last time POTUS's party gained seats in the House were 1998 and 2002. These are generally attributed to Lewinsky and 9/11, respectively. If Ds hold the House in 2022, people will attribute it to Roe being overturned and overall GOP radicalization including Jan. 6.
Here's something I think about. Let's say Democrats somehow do hold the House this year. It's not likely, but it's also not impossible (~20% chance per 538 model). In 20 years, will people have a hard time explaining why it happened? I think no, they won't. twitter.com/jbarro/status/…
The amount of disinformation coming from the @dccc, @dscc and @SpeakerPelosi when incorrectly citing 538 forecasts is super annoying. I guess it's not really actionable but I'm going to keep calling it out when it happens. twitter.com/galendruke/sta…
Popular nonacademic (nonfiction) books are more like: 1. A Vivid Anecdote Demonstrating An Intractable Problem 2. A Half-Dozen Variations Demonstrating How Entrenched The Problem Is 3. Conclusion: 10 Easy Solutions To The Intractable Problem! twitter.com/jweisber/statu…
"This must be X, because Y would have been a really dumb strategy" is an argument that often presupposes too much about people's ability to avoid really dumb strategies.
Yeah, this was an exceptionally misleading pair of Tweets from @marceelias and it was bad to see some big-name accounts retweeting them. twitter.com/sunnyright/sta…
Some people are happier to lose than to than win. twitter.com/GhostPanther/s…
There's a more technical, model question here too about whether you should consider the baseline to be that the popular vote is even in a neutral year. The equilibrium is probably that Ds usually win the popular vote but win the Senate < 50% of the time. twitter.com/NateSilver538/…
This probably the right strategy, too. You hold the Senate often enough to ensure a conservative, often activist Supreme Court majority, you mostly get what you want even if you don't win every election (and lose some winnable ones).
I'm not sure Shor would disagree, but it's important to note that Republicans are cashing in the current bias of the Senate map for *some combination* of electoral victories and policy victories rather than purely trying to max out their number of seats. twitter.com/conorsen/statu…
We need a day of national reckoning for the take that Joe Manchin "would be the one man who single-handedly doomed humanity" (yes, Podesta literally said that and the tone of the article strongly suggests that the reporters agree). nytimes.com/2022/07/15/cli…
Yeah look I'm all on board with the targeted, harm-reduction approach to monkeypox but it's completely and utterly inconsistent with the approach we took to COVID. twitter.com/HughDalton20/s…
This isn't an accident, of course. It's one of the consequences of being in a party dominated by Trump. Republicans with traditional qualifications might avoid running in the first place, or they lose their primaries.
The lack of elected experience among GOP senate and gubernatorial candidates is really quite something. Bunch of first-time candidates in key races, and such candidates often perform poorly. fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-h…
It's a somewhat rough analogy but other things equal it would be like hiring a 40-year-old who has never had gainful employment vs. one who has. Probably some biases there but usually also some signal.
If you want to get technical it's probably mostly survivorship bias, e.g. that candidates who have won election to something have demonstrated a certain degree of political acumen and viability that I'm not sure Walker, Masters, Oz, etc. have. twitter.com/nathanlgonzale…
The GOP has nominated candidates with no prior electoral experience in Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Historically such candidates have poor track records and indeed all are underperforming in polls relative to how a "generic" Republican might do.
When you put out an internal poll that shows you down 5 and the other guy at almost 50%, that would tend to suggest you're in a lot of trouble (regardless of messaging, which is something both sides get a chance to do). twitter.com/burgessev/stat…
I mean, we're in the middle of a primary season where Republican electeds who tried to stand up to Trump, like Peter Meijer, are getting their butts kicked. So courage, in the rather tangible sense of being willing to lose one's job, would indeed seem to be part of the problem. twitter.com/tzimmer_histor…
Yeah, the thing about Democratic meddling in MI-3 is how little upside there was. It might modestly increase their chances to win one of 435 House seats for two years during a time at which they probably won't control the House anyway. twitter.com/HashtagGriswol…
If the result holds a very big deal. Not a huge surprise based on pre-election polls and Kansas is *slightly* less socially conservative than people assume. But still, confirms that the Dobbs decision was deeply unpopular and will motivate the midterm vote. twitter.com/jmartNYT/statu…
I was out last week, but a lot happened (an assertion @NateSilver538 & I debate on the pod lol) ANYWAY... we discuss: 1) Dems' climate/tax plan 2) CHIPS Act & bipartisan legislation 3) Are we in a recession? 4) Yang's 3rd party 5) Trump's legal liability fivethirtyeight.com/features/polit…
Retweeted by Nate Silver
So basically Eric Hosmer is Kyrsten Sinema. twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/…
Yeah, this seems right. The chance of triggering a *major* escalation (perhaps as a result of an accident or misunderstanding) might be low but it's certainly not zero and the consequences would be very, very bad. nymag.com/intelligencer/…
Other than academic economists and financial reporters, nobody had a particularly strong opinion about how a recession should be defined until about a week ago.
BA.5 in the next country in alphabetical order, Austria. Stop cherrypicking data. twitter.com/EricTopol/stat…
The major parties in the US are *not* very ideologically coherent and *that's* what makes it difficult for 3rd parties. Rs and Ds are efficient at having claimed electoral real estate, often at the expense of principle, so there aren't many empty plots for 3rd parties to grab.
One thing about the Senate this cycle is that there are no sitting ducks for Republicans like say Jones in 2020 or Heitkamp in 2018. We have the best GOP chances in NV and GA but even those are Biden states where D incumbents have led in most polls so far. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-…
The *something* is probably in part (or indeed mostly) Dobbs, but there are quite a few factors that have come to look better for Democrats over the past few weeks, including their legislative agenda.
It seems clear that there's Something Happening Here and movement toward Democrats in recent polls isn't just statistical noise. fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-p…
Here's what non-cherrypicked data looks like. BA.5 looks better than some variants, worse than others. But it doesn't particularly stand out and it's certainly not causing the massive scale of destruction that we saw with variants like Delta.
It seems to be a *lot* like the other variants, in that it has vastly different effects in different countries based on how they fared with other recent variants, seasonality, and other factors. So if you cherrypick data like this, you can tell whatever story you want. twitter.com/EricTopol/stat…
If in #PASEN you're looking for evidence about the electoral impact of carpetbagging, worth noting that perhaps the most famous carpetbagger of modern times, Hillary Clinton, considerably underperformed Gore (55-43 vs 60-35) on the ballot even as she beat Lazio in NY in 2000.
To avoid vague verbiage, I'd define "impact" as any of the following if you were setting up a prediction market.
Apart from the fundamental unpopularity of the major political figures (Trump, Biden, Harris) these days, the fact that things look quite unsettled on the D side (prediction markets say >50% that neither Biden nor Harris is nominated!) could make the whole cycle a free-for-all.
How likely is a robust third party movement in America? I don't know. I think empirically-minded folks are a little smug about it, but fairly low. OTOH, how likely is it that some rich businessperson or celebrity could run for POTUS in 2024 and impact the race? Not so low IMO.
Honestly, given the frequent communications failures, the country would probably be better off if the CDC had spent 100x this amount on media training. twitter.com/AlexThomp/stat…
Would the NYTs coverage be improved if it said: "The future of One America News, which established itself as a powerful force in batshit-crazy right-wing extremist media—"? No. It reserves the more invective language for when it has a specific point to demonstrate (about 2020).
I don't understand complaints like this. * It says "promoting ... outlandish falsehoods" in the same sentence. * The term "conservative" (like liberal) is extraordinarily context-specific. * In the US, the context is many conservatives believe those outlandish claims. twitter.com/dangillmor/sta…
Also worth mentioning that Dobbs isn't the only thing going on. Gas prices are down. Trump is back in the news because of the Jan. 6 hearings and for other reasons. COVID deaths remain toward the lower end since the pandemic began. Wacky GOP candidates are winning primaries.
In some ways more interesting is the "Classic" version of our model, which doesn't use expert ratings like the default version ("Deluxe") does. That's shown pretty linear improvement for Democrats. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-…
I mean...it's not much of an "edge" and the race is still a toss-up, but Democrats' polling has pretty consistently improved post-Dobbs. Even though our model is pretty conservative about accounting for polling movement (it assumes polling shifts in July will revert to the mean). twitter.com/TommyzTakes/st…
It may be increasingly obvious that the Dobbs leak helped conservatives but people's reasons for leaking to reporters aren't always strategic or don't have the consequences they anticipate. twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/…
It's interesting to see the numbers change this quickly but a lot of Biden's appeal in 2020 was based on electability and once the air starts to let out of the balloon—if Democrats start to think someone else has a better shot to beat Trump/DeSantis—it can deflate fast. twitter.com/billscher/stat…
And yet, US COVID metrics, though they've gotten a bit worse, are fairly flat (cases only up 10% vs. 14 days ago). Some caveats, but if BA.5 already accounts for 80%+ of new cases, does not seem likely to replicate the worst surges of the past despite "worst variant ever" BS. twitter.com/EricTopol/stat…
I mean, part of the issue is that Democrats—even in Biden's inauguration speech—portray *every* problem as an existential threat. The party has seemingly become incapable of setting priorities, and that's reflected in Biden's muddled agenda. theguardian.com/us-news/2021/a… twitter.com/jonathanvswan/…
I'm in that weird overlap on the Venn diagram where I think: 1) Recessions shouldn't be a defined by a committee 2) Recessions shouldn't be defined solely by a 2-quarter decline in GDP
"People will have a strong desire to return to the pre-pandemic 'normal'" was one of the easier predictions of all-time IMO. twitter.com/emollick/statu…
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