Nate Silver

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Hope this is true but seems like a difficult modeling problem, not least because there are all these different categories of immunity to deal with (vax, possibly with different degrees of waning depending on the vaccine; natural; hybrid; vax w/ booster). npr.org/sections/healt…
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🎧 New pod 🎧 -- CNN is making big changes to how it conducts polls -- What Rep. Anthony Gonzalez's retirement means for the GOP -- The big California recall polling missfivethirtyeight.com/features/polit…rI
Retweeted by Nate Silver
Given their structural disadvantages in the Senate I think you can argue Democrats are pretty lucky to have as many as 50 seats right now. Both GA races could easily have gone the other way, NH in 2016 was *very* close, strong D candidates held on in red WV, OH, MT in 2018. twitter.com/drvolts/status…
Biden's vax-or-test mandate is actually fairly popular. So is a vaccine requirement for indoor activities. Again, not really a surprise when 75% of adults have taken at least one vaccine dose. static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/co…
The positivity rate in NYC is still headed down, however. (Doesn't necessarily apply to all of the Northeast — VT/NH/ME have had admirably few COVID cases relative to the rest of the country so far and so may have less natural immunity than say NY/NJ/CT/Eastern MA.)
I'd think a lot of the testing surge in the Northeast has to do with schools and colleges reopening. In NYC, for instance, we see a big increase in testing rates in people under 25 years old while it's flat for other groups. www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid… twitter.com/JamesSurowieck…
Interesting. Folks have been confusing "redistricting helps Republicans a lot relative to some nonpartisan baseline" (true) and "redistricting helps Republicans a lot relative to 2012-2020" (not really, because 2010 redistricting was also favorable for them). twitter.com/Redistrict/sta…
I've seen enough: the vote to recall CA Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) fails.
Retweeted by Nate Silver
@EricTopol @ashishkjha The paper is yet another embarrassment. It is advocacy that pretends to be science. It discredits everyone who tries to uphold the standards of scientific integrity. 12/n
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@NateSilver538 Just to add, Nate, that their statement represents, in my view, blatant paternalism. Lack of respect for people to handle the truth, i.e.2 messages at once (1-vaccines are very effective and 2-that vaccine effectiveness may have limits in durability or for specific subgroups)
Retweeted by Nate Silver
To bring this full circle, some of the least robust evidence was in that Provincetown breakthrough study. Very preliminary in a highly non-representative setting and has since been somewhat refuted by more rigorous data. But P-Town occasioned a major shift in public guidance.
There's also inconsistency re: breakthrough infections. Anti-booster folks say they don't matter much since severe outcomes are being prevented. OTOH, a lot of public health messaging has implied breakthroughs do matter since they can potentially transmit to others.
There is *not* robust evidence that vaccine boosters trade off with first doses elsewhere. It is a plausible theory, lacking evidence. The data on waning immunity may not be as robust as we'd like, but it's no less robust than the anti-booster arguments. twitter.com/NateSilver538/…
What I find frustrating about this (in agreement with Dr. Topol) is that it's *very* easy to move the bar for what constitutes "robust evidence". And there's been a lot of inconsistency about this, with respect to boosters. twitter.com/EricTopol/stat…
This is not really a surprise. A supermajority of voters are vaccinated. There are a few conservatives who are pro-vaccine but not pro-vaccine-mandate, but not very many (and more on Twitter than IRL). twitter.com/zackstanton/st…
I want these experts to weigh in on the immunological benefits and risks of booster doses. That's where they're in a unique position to add insight. Instead we get a lot of everything else while e.g. the Israeli data is hand-waved away.
I am also not confident in these predictions about pop psychology ("may undermine confidence in primary vaccination") as these have often been wrong throughout the pandemic (remember when some claimed the J&J pause would *increase* confidence in the vaccines?).
There's still very little evidence that the supply of vaccine doses is finite as opposed to being responsive to increased demand. nytimes.com/2021/09/13/hea…
.@NateSilver538 breaks down possible reasons why Pres. Biden’s poll numbers have dropped: abcn.ws/3E9B80W
Retweeted by Nate Silver
This is probably right (the COVID policies a regime chooses more or less reflect the preferences of its population) though there may also be a lot of catering to the loudest voices in the room, who tend to be pro-restriction in liberal-dominated spaces/anti- in conservative ones. twitter.com/AstorAaron/sta…
I don’t think speaking at a conference organized by WIV counts as a conflict of interest but it is astonishing to see that the majority of signatories of the Lancet letter were connected in some way to EcoHealth/WIV without disclosure of these interests. telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/1…
Retweeted by Nate Silver
Never forget that a lot of people on this platform are completely nuts.
It probably won't be Andrew Yang but an unpopular Biden (or an unpopular Harris) running against Trump in 2024 would be relatively fruitful territory for a third-party presidential bid.
Maybe the CDC should have waited for this more robust data instead of declaring everything had changed because of Provincetown Bear Week. twitter.com/washingtonpost…
I've spent some time in New England recently and there was more of a sense there of being on the "other side of the pandemic" with people having less anxiety about COVID. So maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel if you have *very* high vax rates, as New England does.
And here are states where dining is up the most. A bit of a mixed bag. Mostly purple/red states that have had quite a few problems with Delta, but also New England.
Here are the states where restaurant reservations are down the most since Aug. 1 as compared with 2019, per OpenTable. In general, would support the idea that there's more pullback from economic activity in well-vaccinated blue states. Louisiana a big outlier due to hurricane.
There's this debate about whether conservatives who refuse the vaccine are misinformed about the facts or are making some sort of political statement. The thing is, people's views of "the facts" are highly shaped by their politics so that may not be a meaningful distinction.
This seems right. People have a lot of hot takes about the political impact. But if this policy succeeds in reducing COVID—which depends in large part on whether courts uphold it—that's probably the most important thing from a political as well as a public health point of view. twitter.com/JonWalkerDC/st…
Keep in touch with your (non-journo) college friends because you don't want all your friends to be people in the industry or people in the industries you cover. twitter.com/jadenamos/stat…
People on this platform routinely misrepresent my views on COVID policy so just for the record here are my views, which are pretty nuanced and about as middle-of-the-road as it gets.
Not going to restaurants, movies, religious services, weddings, the gym, etc., is not a low burden to most Americans. Many people's social and recreational lives revolve around these things. If you tell them to avoid these things, they'll assume breakthroughs are very concerning. twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/st…
Also, although there are some confounders here, in surveys, K-12 parents are actually less worried about being around unvaccinated people than other adults. COVID concern is extremely highly correlated with partisanship, OTOH. news.gallup.com/poll/354203/pa…
BTW, part of the poor media messaging—see below—is in exaggerating how easily vaccinated people transmit. They're both much less likely to get COVID *and* less likely to transmit if they do. Being vaccinated offers unvaccinated household members (e.g. kids) a LOT of protection.
If two-thirds of vaccinated infectious disease experts won't eat indoors at a restaurant, and almost half won't attend an *outdoor* sporting event, then of course people reading that are going to think breakthroughs are a big deal and of course they'll want boosters.
OK, but why are Americans fearful of breakthroughs? I'd suggest it's largely because of the mixed messages they're hearing from public health officials and the media, which often imply that vaccinated people should behave with a *lot* of caution rather than "returning to normal". twitter.com/PeterAtlantic/…
I've said before that I didn't think it was obvious that greater caution toward COVID would come to be the liberal position in the US. This is one reason why. People avoiding in-person contact tends to hurt the community services & cultural amenities that liberals usually like. twitter.com/RegionalPlan/s…
The vaccine companies were—unavoidably—doing a lot of educated guesswork with their dosing regimens. Which is why regulators ought to be relatively willing to adjust to new evidence rather than treating whatever protocols were chosen in clinical trials as the word of God. twitter.com/EricTopol/stat…
In some ways, I'm surprised that the higher end of the leisure-hospitality sector hasn't gotten more aggressive about implementing vaccine requirements purely as a revenue-maximizing strategy. I'd think there would be a market for vaccinated-only hotels or flights, for instance.
Interesting that people who regularly attend NFL games say they're more likely to attend games with a vaccine requirement, more so than in the population overall. I'd guess this partly reflects socioeconomic status (games are $$$; most high-income people are vaccinated). twitter.com/MorningConsult…
One thing that's gotten lost in the panic over breakthrough infections is that vaccine entry requirements for mass gatherings (sporting events, etc) as well as higher-risk indoor settings (gyms, etc) are still a pretty reasonable way to manage the pandemic until cases come down.
Here's a convincing case that we should really be accelerating work and regulatory approval on Delta-specific vaccine updates, even if the current vaccines work pretty well for *now*. twitter.com/trvrb/status/1…
Here's the truly under-appreciated point--because of our antiquated and under-funded public health data systems we're still largely in the dark about how much breakthrough infections *in general* contribute to ongoing transmission. Good data saves lives *and* livelihoods! twitter.com/NateSilver538/…
Retweeted by Nate Silver
So, yeah, if you're vaccinated and feel unwell—or have a close contact—stay home and get tested. But as a vaccinated person, you probably don't need to live in fear of unknowingly, asymptomatically spreading to others.
This seems like an underappreciated point: COVID spread by *asymptomatic* vaccinated people is probably very uncommon. nytimes.com/article/breakt…
It's not the entire answer but COVID policy views are much more polarized along ideological lines in the US than elsewhere. In that sense I'm not sure the issue is misinformation so much as people making (sometimes costly and/or irrational) expressions of political identity. twitter.com/ashishkjha/sta…
It's partly because there's a puritanical streak in America's public health establishment and they were worried that people would (gasp!) begin seeing friends and family because of the "false sense of security" that tests provide. newsweek.com/why-negative-c… twitter.com/j_g_allen/stat…
But alas, despite lots of data and decades of science, it does not seem that even someone like @EricTopol can break through to encourage the decision makers to make common sense policy and regulation that would improve our ability to successfully combat this virus. 3/
Retweeted by Nate Silver
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