Mike Shell ๐บ๐ธ
25,022 followers
What direction do you believe the stock market will trend by the end of the year?
Investor Sentiment Poll: the crowd often gets it wrong at extremes.
Retweeted by Mike Shell ๐บ๐ธ ASYMMETRYยฎ pursues asymmetric investment returns by actively managing risk and dynamically adapting to evolving markets.
shell-capital.com
Retweeted by Mike Shell ๐บ๐ธ 
If you arenโt part of the solutionโ youโre part of the problem.
@MikeWShell Santa Claus Rally does not start until Dec 24 & ends Jan 3. If it does not show its a bad sign. Itโs not a trading strategy itโs an indicator. Itโs 7 trading days. Last 5 of year+1st 2 new year. See Almanac p114 tmblr.co/Z8nF6q2eAUkET
Retweeted by Mike Shell ๐บ๐ธ 
Up until July the #Bitcoin Investment Trust $GBTC traded at 80% or more premium to its NAV. It's stll around 18% over net asset value...
I'm guessing some money may be flowing from stocks $SPY to treasuries $TLT
"Hello, NBC ... It is no joke. It is a real war."
Listen to the live radio breaking news broadcast to NBC during the attack on #PearlHarbor on Dec. 7, 1941 โ 77 years ago today.
Retweeted by Mike Shell ๐บ๐ธ Information Asymmetry institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1c4fcโฆ
CBOE S&P 500 Volatility $VIX certainly settled back down after being up over 20%, which by the way didn't seem like a lot when stock indexes were down -3%...
Interesting to see interest rates sensitive real estate and utilities near their highs again... #globalmacro
Real Estate $XLRE $IYR closed strong with some momentum today....
Even some tech stocks reversed into the green like Adobe $ADBE
Some leading momentum stocks reverse up to end the day higher. $AMZN
Diversification and asset allocation alone may fail when investors need it most. Global markets can all decline at once as they did the last two bear markets. Diversification alone doesn't assure protection against a loss, so risk must be managed actively.
Of course, "tough year" is relative. The global asset allocation indexes being down -3% to -5% doesn't seem so tough, but their drawdowns are a little more...
2018 has been a tough year for global asset allocation. iShares Core Allocation ETF offers exposure to U.S. stocks, international stocks, and bonds at fixed weights and holds an underlying portfolio of iShares Core ETFs. They are designed to track S&P Target Risk Indexes.
Interest rates have been falling recently...
I wonder if it knows I drew that green line on there?
Within emerging markets, Brazil and China have some relative momentum so far.
International stocks still trending down more than U. S. stock market. Emerging Markets trying to reverse up...
What emotion do you believe is drive the stock market?
Retweeted by Mike Shell ๐บ๐ธ I tell ya what... we haven't seen a drawdown in the popular stock indexes in nearly a year and a half. We would normally see three or four. Those who don't think that is important will probably be the investors who are dazed when we do see one. #KnowYourRisk
Retweeted by Mike Shell ๐บ๐ธ If you arenโt going to buy or sell, get away from the screen.
Retweeted by Mike Shell ๐บ๐ธ Stock prices have to reach a low enough level to;
1. Wash out those who want to sell
2. Attract buying demand of those who want to buy
It will be interesting to see if the stock indexes can hold the line.
Stock prices have to reach a low enough level to;
1. Wash out those who want to sell
2. Attract buying demand of those who want to buy
Narratives try to explain what is driving stocks down:
Stocks Sharply Lower As U.S.-China Tensions Escalate
Huawei CFO Arrest Slams Dow Jones; Two U.S.-China Trade Futures
A looming death cross for the S&P 500 highlights a stock market in tatters
I just focus on the trend.
We believe investments and markets require active risk management to avoid larger losses and to create the positive asymmetric risk/reward investors want.
#globalmacro #volatility #riskmanagement #momentum #ETF #trendfollowing #tactical #trading
asymmetryobservations.com
Retweeted by Mike Shell ๐บ๐ธ Long-term Treasury bond isn't providing diversification as a crutch this year. It's down -8% YTD, much more than stock indexes.
S&P 500 stock index $SPX $SPY is down -1.5% year to date and 3% from February and April low. Bulls would like to see it hold the line. A lower low would be a downtrend.
Dow Jones Industrial Average is -1.2% year to date and 3.5% above April low.
S&P GSCI Commodity Index is down -8% YTD and trend down over this time frame.
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