Mike Shell 

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The scenes in Fort Myers Beach, Florida, are nothing short of catastrophic. 🙏🏽 it'll get rebuilt better than everweather.com/storms/hurrica…wi
The percentage of stocks in the S&P Information Technology Index is now as low as it was during the March 2020 waterfall decline. When nearly all stocks are already in a downtrend, we start to look for inflection points and countertrends.
Retweeted by Mike Shell 
This is one of many examples I've seen over the past 25+ years of seemingly great companies in downtrends, but also an indication of a recessionary bear market. Fundamental analysis and passive buy and hold may not work on stocks, but trend following may help. --- the end.
Naturally, I added it to my list of "Great American Companies" and it's been a downward dog since! You get the picture.
A year or two later, Generac launched a new more efficient generator that's also smaller and takes up less lawn space. On top of that, the cost dropped for me from around $30k to $15k, so I've had it for about a year now for peace of mind.
I installed a Generac whole house generator at my home in Tampa Bay for reasons that should be very obvious this week with Hurricane Ian. I first started researching whole house generator options a few years ago, and at first, they were hard to get because of demand.
This is why we can't have nice things! I often discover 'great companies' because of their uptrends and relative strength, and then I look at the company and its products. This time I played Peter Lynch by adding it to my list because I bought a Generac myself.
So, it *has been* a great company, (enter past performance disclaimer here) based on sales and EPS growth, and a strong sector, but the fundamental "story" hasn't driven a price uptrend, despite FUNDAMENTAL analysts loving the stock.
Back to the weekly chart of $GNRC using @MarketSmith by the way, we see the price trend peaked December 2021, and it's been below its moving averages since, except it peaked over the 50 mutiple times.
$GNRC stock has been in such a strong downtrend that it is outperforming only 17% of other US-listed stocks. Said another way, its relative price strength is underperforming 83% of stocks. It's a story of good fundamentals, but poor price action: that'll put us in the poor house.
With that said, he's the daily chart of $GNRC showing everything looking pretty good except for the price trend. EPS 92 shows earnings have been in the top 92% of stocks in the IBD database. group/sector relative strength is top-rated. Yet, the stock is in a strong downtrend.
First, my regulatory disclaimer: NONE of what follows constitutes advice to buy/sell the stock. Neither my firm nor its clients have a position in Generac at this time. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but if you are a $GNRC investor you won't want it to!
I maintain a portfolio/list of what I call "Greatest American Companies" that follows a Peter Lynch style methodology of simply investing in great brands I know and great companies per my observation. One of them is Generac $GNRC (I have no position), the generator company. 🧵 👇🏽
Larger than expected losses can mount quickly in prolonged bear markets if you don't have a predefined exit.
The % of stocks above their 50-day average in the S&P Consumer STAPLES sector shows that even the more defensive stocks are now participating in the downtrend. This is what we typically see in bear markets when correlations converge, and everything eventually sinks with beta.
The percentage of stocks in the S&P Consumer Cyclicals Index has been as low as it was during the March 2020 waterfall decline a few times. It's like ringing the water out of clothes, which eventually dry up.
Retweeted by Mike Shell 
The percentage of stocks in the S&P Consumer Cyclicals Index has been as low as it was during the March 2020 waterfall decline a few times. It's like ringing the water out of clothes, which eventually dry up.
"Ken Griffin, Citadel’s founder and CEO, believes the Federal Reserve has more work to do to bring down inflation even after a series of big rate hikes." via CNBC
Seems obvious: "Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller believes the Federal Reserve’s attempt to quickly unwind the excesses it helped build up for a decade with easy monetary policy will not end well for the U.S. economy." via CNBC
Another live shot from Galleon Marina the Key West Bight:
Meanwhile, down at Key West Marina, the boats look OK.
The percentage of stocks in the S&P Information Technology Index is now as low as it was during the March 2020 waterfall decline. When nearly all stocks are already in a downtrend, we start to look for inflection points and countertrends.
AAII Sentiment Survey: *Bullish sentiment is at/below 20% for the just the 50th time in the history of the survey *6th highest level of bearish sentiment ever *1st time pessimism is above 60% of consecutive weeks *Over 1,800 weekly readings since 1987 aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
Retweeted by Mike Shell 
There's a first for everything, this is the first time AAII Bearish Sentiment has remained above 60% for two weeks in a row. aaii.com @AAIISentiment
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Investments and markets require active risk management to avoid larger losses and to create the positive risk-adjusted investment returns people want.
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Bubbles bursting everywhere.
A brief glimpse of what happened today, that first clip has easily some of the strongest winds I have experienced in any hurricane I’ve chased. A mini doc will be made once all the surge probes are collected, the Ft Myers Beach one is going to be insane. youtu.be/bbeqChPvlQk
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Ft Myers Beach is effectively gone, almost no emergency crews yet. These poor people need so much help…
Retweeted by Mike Shell 
Meanwhile in Key West: Live from the Southernmost point of the United States. youtube.com/watch?v=z04g8q…
So, passive asset allocation and buy and hold stocks get the big shark bite over time like slow motion, but many tactical traders will suffer death by a thousand cuts, like piranha.
This is a volatility expansion, and a likely recession driving prolonged bear market. So we’re going to see significant swings up/down that may lead many whipsaws for tactical traders. I call it many smaller piranha bites (whipsaws) instead of one big shark bite (from passive).
The good news about indexes breaking down to LOWER LOW is stop losses that were there get stopped out which can eventually help DEMAND > SUPPLY. Aka: it wipes out that “overhead resistance” from here.
Lower low for the S&P 500.
In a bear market surprises tend to be to the downside .
When I say this was the roughest flight of my career so far, I mean it. I have never seen the bunks come out like that. There was coffee everywhere. I have never felt such lateral motion. Aboard Kermit (#NOAA42) this morning into Hurricane #Ian. Please stay safe out there. twitter.com/theastronick/s…
Retweeted by Mike Shell 
Predictions are fallible. They first thought it was gonna be north of us, then we were in the eye, actual is further south.
Ian is further south of Tampa Bay than expected, so we have heavy winds already and it’s coming our way. My house is built to hurricane code (concrete, hurricane windows, tile roof) and we have a whole house generator, so we’ll be fine.
"Contrary to popular belief, winners quit a lot. In fact, that’s how they win."
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"Knowing when to quit is a survival skill that separates elite players from the rest of the pack. Yet, despite the obvious virtues of folding a bad hand, in most areas of life human beings tend to extol perseverance, 'I wish I had that kind of grit.'" theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Retweeted by Mike Shell 
Only during a hurricane can you purchase a shovel, duct tape, rope, and a tarp and no one questions your motive.
The MOVE index is like the VIX, but for bonds. While the VIX/stock market gets all the attention, the bond market is much bigger and tends to signal things before the stock market because the bond market is where the fundamental plumbing of finance takes place.
The good news for those of us in Tampa Bay is hurricane Ian has shifted south, so we may be on the less dangerous left side. The bad news is Floridians south of us like Sarasota, Port Charlotte, Fort Myers, are now centered and Naples, Marco Island are on the dangerous right side
Meanwhile, in Key West, Florida
Most people do not realize how frequently David defeats Goliath. Although most people believe that bigger is better, there are many situations where a smaller, more nimble, unconstrained, faster response provides us an edge.
An edge I've learned from tactically trading global markets for the past 25 years is to understand that the unthinkable will happen, often.
When you love what you do for a living, it isn't "work" and you're rewarded by your passion.
We get all the fun in Tampa Bay
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