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Mike Shell ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

Don't just follow people who you think are smart or skilled. I've probably gained the most from the delusions of others.
8h
Recency Bias is the tendency to believe whatโ€™s been happening lately will continue. It causes investors to stay in stocks because they have been performing well, ignoring warning signs. Then, it keeps them from buying after markets have fallen, expecting it to continue.
Bear spotted at Californiaโ€™s oldest premium winery.
Self-discipline self-disยทciยทpline noun The ability to control one's feelings and overcome one's weaknesses; the ability to pursue what one thinks is right despite temptations to abandon it.
I often hear things like โ€œour systematic investment/trading model removes the emotionโ€, which is far from the truth. Anyone who believes a system will remove their emotional issues will eventually experience a whole new set of emotions they may not have felt yet.
Retweeted by Mike Shell ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
WOW! Perfect day for a hot air balloon ride across Napa Valley!
What direction do you think the stock market will most likely trend next?
In Napa checking out the vines.
Indexes, ETFs, and other long-only funds by themselves donโ€™t have a stop loss, drawdown control, or volatility management. So, they can lose -50% or more and shift from calm and quiet to wide volatile swings. If we want managed risk/volatility/drawdown, we have to do it actively.
I like to call this chart "What in the world is going on". It includes the broad indexes for different markets and assets, then I drill down into them. If I posted all the charts here, it would be 100+ including each sctor, country, bond categories, commodites, currency...
Retweeted by Mike Shell ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
I like to call this chart "What in the world is going on". It includes the broad indexes for different markets and assets, then I drill down into them. If I posted all the charts here, it would be 100+ including each sctor, country, bond categories, commodites, currency...
Retweeted by Mike Shell ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
South Africa ETF $EZA is trending with similar relative #momentum to the #EmergingMarkets and U.S. #StockMarket S&P 500 $SPY $SPX #GlobalMacro
Brazil Capped ETF $EWZ is more volatile, but trending with similar relative #momentum to the #EmergingMarkets and U.S. #StockMarket S&P 500 $SPY $SPX
South Korea ETF $EWY is trending with somewhat better relative #momentum to the #EmergingMarkets and U.S. #StockMarket S&P 500 $SPY $SPX
Mexico ETF $EWW is in a downtrend and trending with less relative #momentum to the #EmergingMarkets and U.S. #StockMarket S&P 500 $SPY $SPX
Taiwan ETF $EWT is trending with similar relative #momentum to the U.S. #StockMarket S&P 500 $SPY $SPX but below the relatvie strength of #EmergingMarkets
Malaysia ETF $EWM is in an uptrend and is trending with similar relative #momentum to the #EmergingMarkets index and U.S. #StockMarket S&P 500 $SPY $SPX
Russia Capped ETF $ERUS is trending with weaker relative #momentum vs the #EmergingMarkets index and U.S. #StockMarket S&P 500 $SPY $SPX
Peru ETF (EPU) is trending with stronger relative #momentum vs the #EmergingMarkets index and U.S. #StockMarket S&P 500 $SPY $SPX
iShares MSCI Poland ETF $EPOL is trending with the relative #momentum vs the #EmergingMarkets index and U.S. #StockMarket S&P 500 $SPY $SPX
Philippines ETF $EPHE is lagging in relative #momentum vs the #EmergingMarkets index and U.S. #StockMarket S&P 500 $SPY $SPX
Indonesia ETF $EIDO is lagging in relative #momentum vs the #EmergingMarkets index and U.S. #StockMarket S&P 500 $SPY $SPX
Chile ETF $ECH has more volatile, but recently trending close to #EmergingMarkets in relative momentum vs the #EmergingMarkets index and U.S. #StockMarket S&P 500 $SPY $SPX
Thailand ETF $THD is leading in relative #momentum vs the #EmergingMarkets index and U.S. #StockMarket S&P 500 $SPY $SPX
iShares MSCI Turkey ETF $TUR is lagging in relative #momentum vs the #EmergingMarkets index and U.S. #StockMarket S&P 500 $SPY $SPX
The Emerging Markets are mainly 23 emerging economies: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.
Those who believed "reistance" was present are probably feeling fear of missing out. They now have to figure out what to do next. Do they enter now and risk getting in just before another pullback? or, do they wait for a pullback? I prefer to know in advance what I'll do, when.
None of what I share on Twitter is investment advice... or necessarily suggests how/what I trade. I like to draw charts to see the visual representation of trends and what is going on. Market analysis is useful to understand how markets interact, I'm sharing it just for fun.
The small company stock has been showing the most positive divergence over its index, presenting higher highs and higher lows. It suggests some stocks in the index are trending better than the index. Here is the Advance-Decline Line for S&P 600 Small Cap index $SLV $IWM $IJR.
Here is the Advance-Decline Line for S&P 400 Mid Cap index $MDY. Notice the Advance-Decline Line lagged at the peak and is now leading the price index.
These are just #SituationalAwareness and #RiskManagement observations. When an investment manager has a system for what kind of trend condition is going on and maybe apply a different system, we may be able to better adapt changing conditions.
The challenge we investment managers have applying absolute momentum (price trends) and relative momentum (relative price strength) is the signals can generate whipsaws if the investment manager doesn't have an indication for the type of market condition.
For example, these are some examples of recent momentum buy signals, because they weren't declining as much as the #StockMarket. Here, you can see their relative strength, but by the time the trend signal reverses to buy stocks again, they will necessarily miss some of the low.
I like to call this chart "What in the world is going on". It includes the broad indexes for different markets and assets, then I drill down into them. If I posted all the charts here, it would be 100+ including each sctor, country, bond categories, commodites, currency...
Some investors who are interested in #globalmacro and global asset allocation may include commodities and real estate, so I added them here. Commodities have shifted in the trend that past year from more - to + as real estate has changed the opposite. $IYR $GSG
For an idea of global asset allocation trends, I added some bond indexes. Clearly, bonds are showing a lack of relative momentum, though the international bond is stronger than the U.S. $SPY $EFA $EEM $AGG $TLT $BNDX
Looking back over the past year, Emering Markets $EEM countries are still showing relative momentum leading Developed International stocks $EFA, which are trending closer to the U.S. #StockMarket index $SPY
Small and mid-cap stocks had declined last summer when the $SPY large company stock index didn't. During this correction since late January, we've seen the reverse. Small stocks didn't decline as much during the second decline.
Small company stocks are leading in the #StockMarket over large and mid. It's usually a positive sign when smaller more nimble stocks are the leaders. $IWM $SLY $SPY $MDY $IJR
Recency Bias is the tendency to believe whatโ€™s been happening lately will continue. It causes investors to stay in stocks because they have been performing well, ignoring warning signs. Then, keeps them from buying after markets have fallen, expecting it to continue.
Retweeted by Mike Shell ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
#StockMarket S&P 500 Advance-Decline Line is showing a positive divergence with $SPX. It's a breadth indicator based on net advances, which is the number of advancing stocks less the number of declining stocks. Suggests stocks in the index are trending better than the $SPY index.
It may seem the S&P #StockMarket index is driven by the top 10 #stocks. Top 10 stocks are 20% weighting. $AAPL is the largest weight at 4%, but it takes a 26% price change to move the $SPX 1%. It takes a 32% to 73% price change in the other 9 to change the index just 1%.
Recency Bias is the tendency to believe whatโ€™s been happening lately will continue. It causes investors to stay in stocks because they have been performing well, ignoring warning signs. Then, keeps them from buying after markets have fallen, expecting it to continue.
Retweeted by Mike Shell ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
I think sometimes programmers forget that their primary job is to help create a world where we need _less_ programmers, not more.
Retweeted by Mike Shell ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
Seeing a lot of commentary about the $SPX having "resistance" at 2670. To believe an index of 500 stocks is hindered by selling pressure at a certain price requires one to believe the price trend is controlled by the index instead of the 500 stocks in it.
Retweeted by Mike Shell ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
At this point, this continues to look like a normal and expected "correction" of what was an upside overreaction in the prior months. To see what I mean by "expected", read my pinned tweet.
Retweeted by Mike Shell ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
 
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