Lloyd Blankfein

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I imagine Jay Powell and the rest of the Fed Governors are right now sitting with a thesaurus trying to find the word that means “pause” or “not pause,” depending on who’s listening.
Seems EVERYONE negative on the mkt with sticky inflation, more rate hikes, other bad stuff ahead. Yet…inconceivable for all pundits to be right, but often all are wrong. Positives may be lurking. Fed pause, Ukraine truce, China lockdown end, etc. Sentiment can shift suddenly. twitter.com/wsjmarkets/sta…
This is one of those trading days where if you had the news in advance (above-expected CPI), you REALLY would have lost a lot of money.
Reading the news, it seems like half the country is suffering from floods, the other half from drought. The Romans would have built aqueducts!!
No shock that the pace of change is picking up at the PGA. You don’t have to care a whit about golf to draw the broader economics lesson: that competition drives innovation! twitter.com/nypost/status/…
Hats off to the P/E lobby! After all these years and budget crises, the highest paid people still pay the lower capital gains tax on earnings from their labor.  I agree their activity helps the economy, but so does the labor of truck drivers, teachers and construction workers! twitter.com/nytimes/status…
This Supreme Court is more activist than any we've had in decades, something conservatives have traditionally railed against. But I guess conservatives don’t mind this type of activism.
Dial back a bit the negativity on the economic outlook.  If I’m managing a big company of course I’m prepping for the worst. But the economy is starting from a strong place, with more jobs than takers, and is adjusting to higher rates. Riskier times, but may yet land softly.
Inflation fighting is mostly the fed’s show, but there’s stuff for rest-of-gov to do, e.g: expand immigration to increase labor force; subsidize child care for labor participation;  eliminate some tariffs; provide less hostile regulation for energy sourcing and transportation….
Supreme Court reversal of Roe v. Wade is not just bad; it’s Dred Scott bad.
Companies shud take policy positions core to their biz, and have a responsibility to advocate for policies that protect their employees and fight those that hurt them. But forcing companies into the “blue” or “red” side of every divisive issue will hurt our economy and country.
In 1967 Florida granted special governance and tax status to Disney World. Maybe that was bad policy. But to revoke it because @GovRonDeSantis objects to Disney’s position on unrelated legislation smacks of govt retaliation for exercising free speech. Bad look for a conservative. twitter.com/nytimes/status…
As shown by Russia’s war that unites the West and China’s zero-covid policy that crashes its economy, hard to get dictators to back off policy mistakes even when folly is clear. Our free speech/democratic/free market system is messy, but forces us to confront reality and adapt.
We’ve had a tsunami of negative news for stocks: crazy high inflation, fed tightening, rising long rates, commodity shortages, war, trade sanctions, covid spikes, etc. Many spec stocks way down but the broader market has mostly held up in the face of it all. Kinda bullish….
Worth noting even Hitler didn’t permit his military to use chemical weapons, though he had them. twitter.com/WSJ/status/150…
I’m not a military guy, but if Ukraine is able to strike a proper target inside Russia, should it? Wouldn’t be meaningful strategically, but could be a major morale boost, like the Doolittle raid against Tokyo in 1942, which brought that war home to Japan and boosted US morale.
The Fed’s 7 projected 1/4pct rate rises thru ‘22 is not so hawkish. Real interest rates still NEGATIVE to the horizon.  By itself, current Fed policy is less of a tailwind to the equity market but not a headwind.  And a lot of the froth has already left the market this year….
What do you think? A failing Russia may end up with the North Korea playbook, where its only move left is to imply a threat to use nukes. Worrying, but end of the day, Russians love their children too.
How possible that most Russians truly believe Putin’s naked lies that Ukraine is the aggressor, is building nukes, that civilians aren’t targeted, etc? Then I realize most Republicans truly believe, despite all evidence, that Trump won the 2020 election. And we have a free press!
Keeping an open mind about crypto, but given the inflating US dollar and the stark reminder that governments can and will under certain circumstances freeze accounts and block payments, wouldn’t you think crypto would be having a moment now? Not seeing it in the price, so far….
Wow, if the world runs out of crises we know just where to turn…. twitter.com/Reuters/status…
Would be surprised if China provides much greater support for Russia. China’s gained the most from stable world order including rules for trade, capital, security, dispute resolution. China surely wants more influence and changes but doesn’t gain from blowing up the system.
Interesting…..it’s not the post-war, western security system (Nato) that is meting out the most effective punishment to Russia, but the architecture of the global financial system that is pulverizing their economy.
Biden could have better explained WHY US supports Ukraine, beyond morality. Reference FDR’s metaphor of lend-lease pre-WWII….if your neighbor’s house is on fire, you lend him your firehose; not just for friendship, but because sparks from his burning house could ignite yours!
When rates normalize, the risk of a mkt/economic crisis will be way high. Powell and Brainard are pretty close on policy but Powell’s leadership was tested in the initial Covid crisis. Brainard has not been tested the same way. Powell is a much safer choice at a critical moment.
Debatable if Biden was elected to be FDR, but clearly FDR WAS elected to be FDR. Despite huge majorities, FDR’s New Deal (NLRB, Social Security, TVA, etc) wasn’t passed at once, but incrementally from 1933-39. Must entire progressive agenda w/o broad mandate pass at once now?
I get the neg sentiment towards pharma, but really, it’s not all bad. Pls, before you try to kill the industry, let them finish perfecting the vax’s and treatments for covid and all the other diseases that plague mankind. twitter.com/BernieSanders/…
Stimulus bill: Dems want $2.2trio and Reps offer $1.8trio, more than 80% the ask. Dems should take the lesser amount now, to save lives and jobs, and top up after the election, when Dems control more of the govt. If Dems don’t win the WH or the senate, they have bigger problems!!
So far the stock market doesn’t seem too upset at the prospect of Biden winning, despite Trump’s more market friendly policies. Perhaps folks think their stocks and 401(k)s will do better with higher taxes and increased regulation than with nastiness and scorched earth.
Does Joe Biden have a higher net worth than Donald Trump? twitter.com/nytimes/status…
Sorry, it’s been awhile. Just in case I’ve been missed (Ha!), here's the link to a podcast interview I did for Hank Paulson, my old boss and former treasury secretary: twitter.com/PaulsonInst/st…
Congratulations to Elon Musk, another immigrant who helps make America greater!! twitter.com/nytimes/status…
Hospitals are not overwhelmed; most of us will be exposed anyway since we can’t sequester until there’s a vax; and we know which groups need protection from worst outcomes. Is the public health benefit from broad lockdowns at this point worth such extreme damage to livelihoods?
Tech’s contribution is so apparent in these Covid times, enabling remote work, on-line shopping, connection with family/friends, and broad access to info & entertainment. Real concerns: competition, privacy, fake news... But imagine trying to cope with this crisis 20 years ago!!
If I were a governor I wouldn’t ease restrictions now as Georgia is doing. But in our federal system States can take different approaches and thereby produce data and results from which we will learn more, and faster, about what works and what doesn’t. Not entirely a bad thing.
In finance, most surprising to me is that despite the trillions the US is adding to our budget deficit and national debt, investors (many foreign) will lend the US a virtually limitless supply of dlrs for .6 pct for 10 years.
It’s only now I appreciate how happy I was before Covid-19. I wish someone would have told me.
Duh...... CNN more interested in getting a “gotcha” headline than elucidating the complex and terrible tradeoffs that will have to be made going forward in balancing public health and economic issues. twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/…
Not all of the bold actions in support of jobs and the economy will go smoothly and of course public health will determine outcomes. Monday morning quarterbacks will have a field day. But in Mnuchin and Powell we have the right folks on our economic issues at this critical time.
Been quarantined with my wife for four weeks now. At this point I have more risk of getting killed by her than by a crummy virus.
Market thought: it’s an odd time where so many are so bearish in the short term but confident that most stocks will be a lot higher in a few months. A vaccine or treatment is the focus of EVERY pharma company and researcher. Imagine the sharp snapback on a sudden breakthrough.
Book rec: No Ordinary Time, by Doris Kearns Goodwin. About the “home front” in WWII. Early in the book a good discussion of Roosevelt’s leadership in mobilizing industry (whose hatred he had welcomed!) as the country transformed into the “arsenal of democracy.” Relevant.
Extreme measures to flatten the virus “curve” is sensible-for a time-to stretch out the strain on health infrastructure. But crushing the economy, jobs and morale is also a health issue-and beyond. Within a very few weeks let those with a lower risk to the disease return to work.
Before we kill the “cruel, corporate- run health system,” let’s give it a chance to help fix the govt’s mismanaged virus testing program. And perhaps allow our pharma companies to develop a vaccine. Then we can kick the private sector out and turn health care over to the govt!? twitter.com/BernieSanders/…
I don’t seem to be having much trouble getting people to “social distance” from me.
Good risk management: at this point, go all-in on social separation, and all-in on financial relief to those most economically vulnerable (individuals and sm biz). Save the second guessing for later. I would welcome if we look back 3 months from now and think we over-reacted.
Fear can take mkt lower, but expect quick recovery when health threat recedes. Esp in US, underlying economy strong, banks well-capped, system not too leveraged. Unlike ‘08, will avoid systemic damage that cud take years to work thru. Obviously, not ignoring tragic human toll....
I don't have "hatred for" @BernieSanders. I just disagree strongly with policies that would have the gov manage so much more of our economy. Perhaps the Sen wants to feel hated because HE hates. This time around, how 'bout picking someone who'll respect and work with all groups? twitter.com/BernieSanders/…
If Dems go on to nominate Sanders, the Russians will have to reconsider who to work for to best screw up the US. Sanders is just as polarizing as Trump AND he’ll ruin our economy and doesn’t care about our military. If I’m Russian, I go with Sanders this time around.
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