As a suicide survivor, I just want to tell those feeling the despair of depression that being alive is worth it. There is no permanent nirvana of happiness at the end of the tunnel, but with the right resources, you will be able to eventually find the good days worth living for. twitter.com/liamstack/stat…
I have never before seen a standing ovation at the AEA meetings — and would guess that this may have been the first ever standing ovation — as the great Sadie Alexander was just awarded a posthumous distinguished fellow award. #ASSA2023
Hey, so my session at #ASSA2023 is being live streamed, so if you’re an econ instructor looking for guidance on future course preps, I’m talking about “Course Prep as Upcycling”, and you can tune in now… aeaweb.org/conference/liv…#TeachEcon
Walking around the big annual econ gabfest known as #ASSA2023 and even though I've been for each of the last 20-25 years, the nagging anxiety of imposter syndrome never quite goes away. Perhaps the only thing that helps is the realization that everyone else feels the same way.
Note that the mass unemployment of elected-but-not-yet-seated-and-so-not-on-payroll Congressional Representatives occurred after these December employment numbers, and they should affect the January report.
Here's a favorite game of mine. Choose your favorite stat to describe recent wage growth.
Annualized rate of growth over the past...
1 month: 3.4%
2 months: 4.1%
3 months: 4.1%
4 months: 4.3%
5 months: 4.1%
6 months: 4.5%
"Around 4%" seems like a reasonable summary.
Lemme take back my earlier tweet... Wage growth of 0.27% this month is an annualized rate of 3.4%, and if that persisted, our inflation problems would dissipate. The Fed should be *very* happy that this month's wage numbers are unlikely to be inflationary.
Equally, there's no evidence of a wage-price spiral, and some (weak) evidence that wage growth is slowing. Over the past three months, wages grew at an annualized rate of 4.1%, compared with 4.8% over the prior 3 months.
The Fed is going to be watching hourly earnings like a hawk. It grew +0.3% in December (actually 0.27%), which will worry the Fed. But over the year, wages have grown 4.6% which is consistent with inflation falling to 3-point-something percent.
Looking across industries, it sure looks like some of this job gain is occurring in the sectors you would expect to benefit from the economy re-opening and returning to normal (Of extra note is that construction jobs grew, despite the Fed.)
Household survey shows a bonkers rate of job growth (+717k) bringing it closer to the remarkable recent growth in the payrolls survey.
Over 2022, the household survey shows total job growth of 3.2m, while the payrolls survey says 4.5 million jobs were created. Either is 🔥🔥🔥
Payrolls jobs for the previous two months were revised down slights (November down 7k to +256k; October down 21k to +263k). But still the 3-month average is rocking along at an extraordinary +247k new jobs per month, and if it's slowing, not by much.
It's jobs day, and non-farm payrolls for December comes in HOT again, adding 223k jobs, which is both robust in its own right, and stronger than expected.
Unemployment is down a tick to 3.5%, near 50-year lows. Anyone who thinks this is economy is in a recession is bananas.
Next time an economist objects to behavioral assumptions — say of hyperbolic discounting — invite them on the flight to #ASSA2023 — where (at least on my flight) they're all preparing the slides they had hoped to complete a week ago.
After three failed attempts & an adjournment, the latest odds basically put McCarthy and Scalise as *equal* favorites. I don't know what prediction markets really tell you about events like this, beyond being a useful summary of the conventional wisdom. Still, I find that helpful
A close reading of rulebook reveals that it is technically impossible for Ohio State to be crowned national champions having lost badly to Michigan and failing to even make their conference championship game.
If you missed me over the holidays, I'll be inside your TV in just a few minutes -- this time on @MSNBC -- talking with the brilliant @Yamiche about the state of the economy, and the prospects for next year.
"we instrument for the usage of TikTok by college students using idiosyncratic executive orders... our triple difference strategy compares college students in state schools with those at private universities and to students in states with no Tiktok ban..." gizmodo.com/tiktok-tiktok-…
Sorry, too few options.
Should I step down as head of Twitter? I will abide by the results of *this* poll.
Special guest @JustinWolfers: "How many people two years ago would've said unemployment's going to be 3.5% by the middle of 2022? It felt unimaginable during the deepest moments of the deepest recession since the Great Depression."
#InsideEconomics pod: apple.co/3uPsRvX