Ed Bradford

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Itsy bitsy coin below $3K
Big OOPs... the consensus of sequential softening gets blown up with that print. Fed's got work to do.
So is inflation moderating? Market seems to think so. The belly of the UST curve has been on a mission, closing in on zero after topping the insane 30 level in late April.
@EffMktHype @therobotjames @EntropyChase @bigbluebugcap @macrocephalopod It go up I buy. It go down I sell Maybe it go up too much. I sell Maybe it go down too much. I buy
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And now below 3%
@Fullcarry Worth keeping in mind that given spot inflation so high vs 5Y out, each 1M roll sees 5Y BE decline 7-8 BPs a month...
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5y breakeven inflation collapsing, down to 3.06. April CPI prints Wed morning
5s kinging up on the curve. 2s5s30s butterfly in 8 bps on the day
Bostic: No need to hike by larger steps than 50 bps
Two years on and the risk environment couldn't look more different to me. TINA (There Is No Alternative) is dead. Seems like risk has been resilient through the usual adaptive expectations channel - it feels attractive cos it's worked the past few years. I would be very cautious. twitter.com/5_min_macro/st…
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The whole "let me buy some Ultras to hedge my NQ position" thing is no longer working
A few other notable moves overnight: 2s10s above 47 bps and steepest since mid-Feb Nominal 30s above 3.30, highest yield since Dec 2018
Real 30s top 70 bps
It's crazy CPI week with the most important print of all time this Wed. Core expectations are 0.4 after a 0.3 print last month. USTs already angsting with 5s off 10 ticks
Ultras going out this week at the lows. OUCH
Worst bond action since Roger Moore
It's just an asset swap guys are having a tough few weeks
There is definitely worse advice than "don't fight the Fed" BTW Martin Zweig tm
So as we reprice the long-end of the UST curve for inflation/term/duration risk, the curve could steepen as it is doing so currently. 2s are KING. For now
Correction: 2s10s topping 38bps
With 75 bp hikes off the table, it is hard to cheapen up 2s much beyond where it is currently. So long end sell-offs will likely mean a steeper curve for now. 2s10s topping 28 bps
New cycle low for June Ultras
Until the labor market weakens, NFP prints won't move the market (rates) much. For now it's all about CPI and the print next week. Exp core 0.4
Payrolls estimates Natixis 517k JPMorgan 475k Jefferies 475k Morgan Stanley 475k SocGen 475k BNP Paribas 460k Barclays 450k BofA 450k HSBC 405k Citi 360k Credit Suisse 350k StanChart 350k Nomura 340k Deutsche 300k Goldman Sachs 300k UBS 300k Wells Fargo 300k
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Risk parity off the lows
Your bids mean nothing to us Mr. Bond
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Ultras with the classic "gradually, then suddenly" price action since FOMC
With QT a done deal, the market is now free to correctly price duration/term/inflation risk. If 8% inflation can happen once, it can happen again. Long-end adjusting to reality IMO
New cycle high yield 30s
June Ultras another contract low. 30s 3.07%
Adjusting for the 50 bps hike, general collateral opened up at 0.80-.78 today
Peak peak inflation calls
Everyone's favorite butterfly (2s5s30s) down 10 bps today
Breakevens all reversed higher during the presser. 5y BEI +10 bps
Nice reversal in 5s30s after the FOMC statement printed. Belly is timely with two Fed hikes in the bag
As expected. Onto presser
Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit amphetamines
The last time the Federal Reserve hiked rates by half a percentage point was almost 22 years ago.
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This is as close to a bond market Super Bowl as you are likely to get. QT, 50bps and NFP on Friday
20s30s is the EDZ2 of the curve
Another all time high in ISM services prices paid (84.6)
So will bonds make a significant low into this QT announcement? What say you?
Treasury refunding details. Coupons slashed with extra love for 7s and 20s as expected. TIPs supply grows. They aren't accounting for QT yet, which means the bills paydown in Q3 won't be as large as projected, but they'll remain rich vs OIS. More here: home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/…
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Bottom line the US Treasury auction sizes are going down just as the Fed starts its QT program, purchasing fewer bonds. The net result is less cash in the system.
They think more cuts may be needed in future quarters
US Treasury with across the board cuts to coupon auctions, most in 7s and 20s
Refunding announcement on deck. Does the US Treasury cut back coupon issuance and which tenors (most likely 7s and 20s)
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