Ed Bradford

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DeSantis wins again. Florida still intact twitter.com/Gaintrust_us/s…
And yeah... you need to go back to the early 80s for more inversion than that
UST spread 2s10s just made a new cycle low below -77 bps
Last coupon auction (7y) before month-end. This is a refunding month so the month-end extension should be much larger which partly explains the bid for the long-end
Correction. I should have said 1s10s. Shorter maturity always goes first
UST spread 10s1s (or 10s12mos) closing in on -100bps Wowza
Fed's Mester: I don't think market expectation is really off
Fed' Daly thinks financial conditions are tighter than suggested by Fed rates
Short week double front-end auction today with 2s coming up at 11:30 am and 5s at 1 pm. The sector has cheapened up significantly the past week with 5s30s 28 bps lower at -10 bps.
As Thanksgiving approaches in the U.S., we give thanks for many things. This year our thoughts turn especially to the brave people of Ukraine and Iran, whose courage reminds us of the worth, and cost, of freedom. "Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes!" "Woman, Life, Freedom!"
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Bostic wants 75 to 100 bps of additional tightening. He also favors slowing the pace of rate hikes at the next meeting
The killing of a 9-year-old boy further ignites Iran’s anti-government protests washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/…
"Death to Khamenei!" chant mourners at the funeral for Kian Pirfalak, 9, one of seven people killed amid protests in Izeh this week. At his funeral, his mom said he was killed by state security agents firing at their passing car. #IslamicRepublic #MahsaAmini #????_??????
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UST spread 3mos10s is now -48 bps. Guessing either inflation will back off significantly or we will have a recession next year
Fed Chair Jay Powell is set to speak on the economic outlook and the U.S. labor market at Brookings on November 30 brookings.edu/events/federal…
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LEI weakening, down 2.7% YoY
It's time to roll UST futures from Dec '22 to Mar '23 contracts. Important to roll before first delivery (12/1) since most contracts will likely have early deliver because of neg carry (gross bases neg).
Hike cycle terminal rate back to 5% but pushed out to June '23 on Bullard's comments
SBF gotta stop talking
My take on today's price action. Market prefers duration risk to equity risk given Fed's reaction function and the chance of a recession next year
Stellar 20y auction
The yield curve has made more of a stir past 24 hours than DJT
BTW 20y auction today. The erstwhile dreaded tenor has been recovering and is priced much better vs wings
Rare event UST 2s5s below -50 bps
Also, 10y UST is now 115 bps below the hike cycle terminal rate using 3m SOFR (4.89)
UST 2s10s makes a new low -63 bps
Revisions strong as well. up 0.6% vs 0.4 initial
Strong retail sales. Control group up 0.7% Waiting on revisions
⚠️ Iran's judiciary has sentenced three anti-government protesters in Tehran to death on various charges such as "corruption on earth" and "waging war on God" on Wednesday, Iranian state media reported. - Reuters on PiQSuite.com/Suite
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USTs have taken a few Fed head punches but remain firm and all at multi-week low yields. 10y UST which is the low yield tenor on the curve still trading below overnight SOFR at 3.76
No matter what he says tonight, let’s be really clear about one thing: My former political party created this monster. For 7 yrs, they fed him, they stroked him, they worshipped him, they enabled him, & they lied for him. Republicans deserve everything this monster does to them.
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McConnell: We underperformed among independents and moderates because their impression of many of the people in our party and leadership roles is that they are involved in chaos.. which is why I never predicted a red wave
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Decision Desk HQ projects Republicans have won a majority in the U.S. House with at least 218 seats. Final count pending calls in 14 outstanding races. #DecisionMade: 6:13pm EST Follow more results here: results.decisiondeskhq.com/national/2022-…
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BREAKING: Suspected missile hits village in Poland, killing 2 people - local radio
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Disgusting- Iranian security forces just fired on metro passengers in Tehran.
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Fed's Barr: Expect to see significant softening in the economy
Broadly speaking SOFR is the funding rate for USTs. So very telling that 10s is trading lower than its funding rate
UST 10s trades through overnight SOFR
Former tech billionaires shopping at Walmart likely padded their numbers
Also, huge supply in the next few days with 20s tomorrow, 10y TIPs Thursday, and 2s/5s/7s early next week before Thanksgiving.
The Waller sell-off didn't last that long. USTs back rallying with 5y yield down below 3.92. Fed terminal rate around 4.85 next Spring
Hobbs wins race for Arizona governor, defeating GOP election denier Lake, NBC News projects cnb.cx/3O8LPGo
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JMO but traders shouldn't forecast.. Leave that to analysts and people selling something. You never want to be too invested in one trade.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that core PCE will fall from 5.1% now to 2.9% by Dec 2023, as supply chain clearing lowers good prices, wage growth starts to slow and rents moderate. Fun fact: "1 million apartments are under construction or permitted, the largest pipeline since 1974."
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New YouGov poll: Trump or DeSantis 2024 Who would you rather see as the Republican nominee for president in 2024? DeSantis: 41% Trump: 39% Neither: 8% Not sure: 22% (Republican respondents only) docs.cdn.yougov.com/pkxui0qzo6/cro…
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A Waller Sunday night open. Ts equi-red across the curve
A catch for the ages
Last Sunday, I asked you on #Twitter what a world without the (so-called) Islamic regime of #Iran what look like - I brought some of your answers with me, when addressing the 🇪🇺 European parliament. We all share these hopes and dreams.#JinJiyanAzadidi PX
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