FiveThirtyEight

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Can an anti-Trump Republican win a primary? 53eig.ht/2XN1WUm
The Great Home Run Chase of 2021: 53eig.ht/3nUU4uK
Our 2021 MLB predictions, updated after every game → 53eig.ht/3EzyEJB
Our updating polling average for the Virginia governor's race is now live: 53eig.ht/3nXBKkG
Can you beat our NFL forecasts? 53eig.ht/3hSHjgr
A calculation of the share of Democrats, Republicans and independents who approve of the president’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak: 53eig.ht/39owfmw
Ben Simmons *is* a perennial All-Star, and he seems likely to be in the All-Star mix for at least the next several seasons. And the Sixers are valuing him that way. 53eig.ht/3kqTP8C
As of 9:30 a.m. Eastern, the Liberals had won or were ahead in 158 seats, the Conservatives had won or were ahead in 119 seats and the New Democratic Party had won or was ahead in 25 seats — very similar to their numbers in the previous Parliament. 53eig.ht/3tQo5gs twitter.com/FiveThirtyEigh…
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was narrowly elected to a third term in Monday’s election in Canada. 53eig.ht/3tQo5gs
GOP critics of Trump's “Big Lie” are struggling to win reelection. 53eig.ht/2VWfSuq
An updating estimate of the generic congressional ballot, based on polls that ask people which party they would support in an election: 53eig.ht/3EyOF2o
How many House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump will survive the midterms? 53eig.ht/3lJWJEL
joshua.hermsmeyer: “I fear Pete Carroll will take all the wrong lessons from this game.” 53eig.ht/3knLhiT
The Virginia gubernatorial race will serve as an indication of how toxic Trump’s brand remains in the state. 53eig.ht/2XzGbaN
How the fight over abortion access might affect the 2022 midterms: 53eig.ht/3hRKrcB
With training camp set to open next week, it’s worth examining why the Sixers have yet to land on a Ben Simmons swap that suits their preferences. 53eig.ht/3nRwyP9
An updating tally of how often every member of the House and the Senate votes with or against the president: 53eig.ht/3tWS2LR
sara.ziegler: “Not to get overly sappy about one game, but this was the kind of matchup that keeps me coming back to the NFL.” 53eig.ht/3Cuj7c5
Abortion could reshape next year’s midterm elections. And although abortion has historically animated Republican voters more, it is proving to be a motivation for Democrats, too. 53eig.ht/3EzLuaL
Here are five questions we’re looking to get answered as the Canadian election results roll in tonight: 53eig.ht/2Z9ivdv
Most personality quizzes are junk science. Take one that isn’t. 53eig.ht/3krq9sc
With training camp set to open next week, it’s worth examining why the Sixers have yet to land on a Ben Simmons swap that suits their preferences. 53eig.ht/3kqZWK6
joshua.hermsmeyer: “I think that it's hard to overstate how much this win means for Lamar. He did a couple things people say he simply can't do: rebound from a really rough start, come from behind, and beat the Chiefs.” 53eig.ht/3lAVebW
Trudeau may yet live to regret calling this election. But it’s also a high-risk, high-reward election for the Conservative Party’s Erin O’Toole, who was chosen as the Conservative leader just last year. 53eig.ht/3Cxe0Iq
We dove into the nearly 1,100 trades that have been completed since the beginning of the 1999-2000 season to examine why the Sixers have yet to land on a Ben Simmons swap that suits their preferences: 53eig.ht/3EAcfvS
What happens in Virginia come November will be a test of just how blue the state is, with possible repercussions for the 2022 midterms. 53eig.ht/3CyUB9Z
How redistricting will change the 2022 electoral map: 53eig.ht/3tXKpo5
It will be interesting to see how deep anti-establishment grievances run in Trudeau’s Canada. 53eig.ht/3zvpidX
Salfino: “Jackson was the best player on the field by far after that first quarter, which is really saying something when Mahomes is also on the field.” 53eig.ht/39nw3nK
Our 2021 MLB predictions, updated after every game → 53eig.ht/3zr4ep1
In the previous Canadian election, in 2019, Trudeau was actually reelected while losing the national popular vote. It’s possible the same thing could happen in 2021. 53eig.ht/3lAzb5a
Salfino: “This puts Patrick Mahomes in the same category of opposing quarterbacks as Peyton Manning, where you don’t give the ball back to them” 53eig.ht/2XFWoLm
Between the 76ers’ preferences and Ben Simmons’ contract status, a win-win Simmons trade is incredibly hard to find. In that sense, perhaps it’s not surprising that he’s still in Philadelphia. 53eig.ht/2ZgOU1Z
The Los Angeles Dodgers have been winning like normal, even if this season is hardly business as usual. 53eig.ht/3lKGlns
If Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is ousted, it could go down as one of the biggest self-owns in political history. 53eig.ht/3EKLAMW
An updating estimate of the generic congressional ballot, based on polls that ask people which party they would support in an election: 53eig.ht/3lK5zlY
There appears to be a rather large disconnect between the value the Philadelphia 76ers are seeking in exchange for Ben Simmons and the value that potential trade partners are willing to provide. 53eig.ht/3nQOBFq
sara.ziegler: “After the first week of the 2021 NFL season delivered pure chaos, Week 2 didn’t let us down. We had furious comebacks, worrisome injuries and a field goal attempt that I think we all knew was going to miss.” 53eig.ht/3lETLBD
The Virginia gubernatorial race will serve as an indication of how toxic Trump’s brand remains in the state. 53eig.ht/3AryvWa
It’s always an election year if you know where to look. This time, it’s up north: Canada heads to the polls today to decide whether to elect Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to another term. Here are five things we'll be watching: 53eig.ht/3hPCd4w
An updating tally of how often every member of the House and the Senate votes with or against Biden: 53eig.ht/3EzzHcv
In the flurry of offseason activity, perhaps the most notable transaction of the 2021 offseason is one that has *not* been made: Philadelphia 76ers star Ben Simmons is still, well, on the 76ers. 53eig.ht/3kplmHt
How President Biden's approval rating compares with past presidents: 53eig.ht/3hSuBOL
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