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#MACRO: All eyes on the Wall Street banks this week, with JP Morgan reporting today, Morgan Stanley & Citi tomorrow and Goldman’s Friday. The key read across for U.K. banks will be the loan growth numbers to see if SME’s are taking on debt again.
#MACRO: A compromised deal looks to be best the democrats can hope for when it comes to raising the debt ceiling. This one merely kicks the can down the street - and not a long way down! The deal spoken about postpones it until year end.
#MACRO: The can has been kicked down the street in the US over the debt ceiling with Biden signing a stopgap which would avoid a shutdown for at least 9 weeks.
#MACRO: It’s not often the US ask Russia for help but oil price and a surge in utility bills needs to be addressed. Biden may just need to swallow his pride and open up a dialogue with OPEC+
Well done Judge in Sarah Everard case, scum will spend rest of his life in prison. As a Copper he will rightly suffer forever.
#MACRO: We’ve got our half yearly debt ceiling issues in the US, seems to come around quicker every time! As the politicians use this as a bargaining chip it can leave investors great opportunities to buy any dip.
#MACRO: Last night, the Fed signalled it will look to cut bond purchases in November while the dot plot showed the FOMC is now evenly split on whether to start tightening its policy in 2022.
#MACRO: September options expire today; Goldman’s estimates roughly $3.4tln of equity options set to mature today, of which $720bln are single stock. Also FTSE rebalance going on. Could be opportunities for a short term trade on your favourite FTSE 350 companies on the unwind.
#TimeMagazine - Meghan Markle wearing a new diamond ring on her Pinkie finger to represent female empowerment, really?! This actually makes me feel a bit sick!
#MACRO: Key data point for when the US might start tapering is out today with Inflation Data due. The build up has prepared the market for a high number so it’s hard to have a view on how we react to it today.
#MACRO: This time tapering isn’t just being spoken about over the pond. The EU inflation outlook may have improved enough to justify immediately slowing the ECB Stimulus and then ending the pandemic emergency bond program in March next year.
A worrying stat I read this morning “about 59% of millennials claim to trade securities while drunk”, Dow Jones reported. This might explain why US smaller companies are so volatile!
#HE1 - Helium One - Announce the commencement of drilling operations at the Tai-2 exploration well. The drill will be just 20m from the Tai-1 drill saving time & money. Having traded as high as 28p I will be adding to my holding here at 11.5p.
#MACRO: The market has shrugged off tapering talk well; when the Fed finally pull the trigger and begin process no one can say it caught them off guard! The market can be lazy through the summer months pricing these things in, manage your risk around this event how you see fit.
#MACRO: U.K. Inflation has not been helped by brexit and the supply chain disruption this has caused according to experts. Lloyds Bank has taken a poll from 1,500 companies and the outlook is the worst since January.
#MACRO: Relief could soon be coming for the U.K. consumer as the acceleration in CPI Inflation should relent. Forecasts are for the headline rate to drop to 2.2% from 2.5%.
#HOUSEBUILDERS: Today we have the U.K. house price index release for June, if this comes in anywhere near expectations this shouldn’t do much to share prices but worth watching in case there is a big deviation.
#COMMODITY CORNER: Copper fell the most in 2 weeks yesterday following data showing Chinese economic growth slowed more than expected. The majority of commodity prices have been drifted from highs making me confident that this inflation bump is transitory and will settle back.
#WISH - Online retailers could get hit today after WISH reported disappointing results. The stock dropped around 20% after hours and could get hit further as this is popular name with day traders.
#MACRO: US this afternoon we have initial jobless claims that are forecast to fall to 375,000 from 385,000 last week.
#MACRO: U.K. 2Q GDP numbers due at 8:00am this morning, again be aware of your weighting’s in quality and value, we could see some factor moves.
#AUTO’S/TECH: the chip shortage is getting worse judging by the latest increase on lead times, now standing at 20.2 weeks, up 8 days from last month.
#CRYPTO: $600mln of cryptos were stolen in a hack on PolyNetwork affecting tens of thousands of people and is likely to be the biggest theft in decentralised finance to date.
#M&A: There could be a new player in town, Silver Lake is in preliminary talks with investors for a new flagship PE fund, according to people familiar with the matter. Don’t be short U.K. Mid Caps!
#MACRO: Watch for capital reallocation over next few sessions. Carson Block, CIO of Muddy Waters, who has influence on retail and institutional money, has said he thinks China equities should trade at a discount to the US. This may see riskier value stocks underperform.
#ENT - ENTAIN: MGM revenue topped analyst estimates & announced the sale of real estate investment trust raising money that could be used for a fresh approach to ENT LN. The lock up on MGM closed a couple of weeks ago putting this front and centre of focus for many hedge funds.
#MACRO: The fed is talking tapering and rate hikes again, the vice chairman sounding upbeat. I can’t help but think with US debt spiralling they don’t have the capacity to raise rates in 2023 like suggested. Can any developed market central bank raise rates in the near term?
#KNB - Kanabo - To acquire Materia's European businesses ("Materia"). The acquisition is to be fully satisfied through the issue of Kanabo shares.
#MACRO: The U.K. economy could lose more than £4.6bln in four weeks if rules on self-isolation following a ‘ping’ from the NHS app aren’t relaxed, according to the centre for economics & businesss research.
#MACRO: The main focus this week will be on the fed as it announces its rate decision, and probably more importantly the pace of it’s bond-buying program.
#COMMODITY CORNER: Oil rallied 2% as demand was expected to recover globally as life normalises for many.
#AUTOS: Semiconductor manufacturers have given commitments to the Biden administration to make more automotive-grade chips; a relief for all automakers especially BMW who flagged this as still a major problem this week.
#UKTRAVEL & LEISURE: Americans have been told they should avoid travel to the U.K with the CDC raising its warning to the highest level. This could easily be the start things to come. The issue soon won’t be the U.K. Govt not let us travel but other countries not letting us in.
#MACRO: Not a lot to say about yesterday, the fear of further restrictions, US and China tensions increasing led to a perfect storm for equities. Today market bears getting air time, Head Asia Equity Strategy Soc Gen saying growth is concerning & equities priced to perfection.
#MACRO: While I think inflation is transitory globally, but may drag on slightly longer in the U.K. due to the shortage in the labour force following Brexit, I think it’s important to recognise that while everyone is talking about it inflation winners will probably outperform.
#COMMODITY CORNER: Saudi Arabia & the UAE have finally agreed new deal keeping OPEC+ intact and allowing both nations to increase oil supply by 400k bpd each month from august.
The only difference is, through the pandemic governments supported their populations with extra help and middle to high earners managed to save a lot. This is transitory and will not persist once the savings rate hit normal levels again.
#MACRO: Inflation transitory or here to stay? The debate moving markets at the moment. My view: Pre Covid inflation was under control despite very loose and accommodative policy, because people’s cost of living to earnings left very little disposable income. That hasn’t changed.
#ITM - Berenberg initiated on ITM POWER with a Hold recommendation and a 400p target price.
#MACRO: U.K. inflation today, expectations are higher for this print than they were for the US data point yesterday so hopefully we see less of a market reaction today. Expectations are for a 2.2% rise in June.
#PHNX - Phoenix Group Holdings today announces that it has entered into an agreement to sell Ark Life Assurance to Irish Life Group Limited ("IrishLife") for a total cash consideration of €230 million (£197 million). Small deal but good for sentiment after recent placing.
#COMMODITY CORNER: Good news those having work done on their house, lumber prices in the US down on the year after doubling from January. Demand has eased as efforts to up supply kicked in creating the perfect storm. Good for consumers and central banks fight against inflation.
#MACRO: Good news for central bankers with indicators pointing to US inflation cooling. This should temper the expectations of a rate increase helping global economies continue their recovery and keep borrowing cheap for nations that are heavily leveraged following last year.
#MACRO: Earnings from the US banks kick off with Goldman and JPM today; the most important thing is their return to office policy attitude here could shape the economy. If flexible working is going to be adopted by the biggest financials in the world it’s clearly here to stay.
#MACRO: More taper talk coming out of the fed, this time from Patrick Harker who is calling for QE to be tapered this year.
#COMMODITY CORNER: As expected, OPEC+ is causing some volatility in the oil market as talks broke down yesterday after a proposed 400k barrel a day increased was blocked by the UAE.
#MACRO: The Fed is still preparing investors for the inevitability tapering of asset purchases and stimulus. The Dallas branch chief said “people are on notice that these adjustments are coming, the only question is when”.
#Bubble or a new asset class? Big hedge funds are now betting on the latter with Point72 looking to fill a new role as head of crypto currencies while Soros announced they have started trading Bitcoin as well.
#COMMODITY CORNER: Expect some volatility in oil today as OPEC+ ministers sit down to discuss production. An august hike of 500k barrels a day is currently the expectations.
#MACRO: Today we have the Euro-Area inflation numbers which are predicted to have slowed to 1.9%, with core at 0.9%. This would be a welcome relief to all central bankers that have described the recent inflation as “transitory”.
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