David Spiegelhalter

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This article is a bit more challenging than usual, but tries to get over the idea that a positive LFD is stronger evidence *for* the virus than a negative PCR is *against* the virus. So reasonable to be cautious after +ve LFD and -ve PCR twitter.com/anthonybmaster…
This looks a great job! Looking for both technical and communication skills twitter.com/hardingprof/st…
$1,000 prize for the best ’small-world’ coincidence! Some great stories there already yoursmallworldstory.com
Amazon now charging the cover price for our book. So why not support your local bookshop instead?
our latest Risky Talk podcast! produced by the brilliant @ilangoodman twitter.com/alex_freeman/s…
very excited about appearing in person at the Sidmouth Science Festival on the 15th sidmouthsciencefestival.org/events/communi… (even though, for a North Devon boy, it’s a foreign country)
Retweeted by David Spiegelhalter
Back in January, The Observer asked @d_spiegel and I to write a column on Covid-19 stats. Out of that column rose the idea for a book. Here are some interesting facts from the book. theguardian.com/world/2021/oct…
Retweeted by David Spiegelhalter
a unique chance to see both me and @anthonybmasters together! Monday at 10am in Cheltenham literature.cheltenhamfestivals.online/events/covid-b… (we never met when writing the book)
"essential that statistics underlying policy decisions are available for scrutiny and are not cherrypicked to avoid those that might rock some political boat. This requires both constant vigilance and appropriate clout for professional analysts" @d_spiegel osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/reflections-on…
Retweeted by David Spiegelhalter
For anyone who has got our book, penguin.co.uk/books/446/4465… you can now download a pdf with web-links for all the end-notes github.com/covid-by-numbe…
my take on OSR’s ‘Lessons Learned' twitter.com/StatsRegulatio…
extraordinary blog by @anthonybmasters on the effort in setting up reproducible code to extract graphs from ONS spreadsheets anthonybmasters.medium.com/life-satisfact… (Of course this explains why he has done all the wonderful coding for our book!)
very excited about appearing in person at the Sidmouth Science Festival on the 15th sidmouthsciencefestival.org/events/communi… (even though, for a North Devon boy, it’s a foreign country)
Very pleased to be doing this. But, to avoid disappointment, I should be clear that I will certainly not be saying what will happen next! twitter.com/tortoise/statu…
excellent lessons! I like the emphasis on independent leadership, transparency, collaboration, and data useful for evaluation. (COI: I am a non-exec on UKSA, who oversees the work of OSR). twitter.com/StatsRegulatio…
excellent article by @VictimOfMaths (@anthonybmasters and I had been thinking of covering this in the Observer this week, but will need to think again..) theconversation.com/how-covid-deat…
Have you got questions about COVID and statistics? Join our online event with Professor @d_spiegel and Dr @anthonybmasters tonight to have your questions answered. Tickets and books here: howtoacademy.com/events/how-to-… @PenguinUKBooks @pelicanbooks
Retweeted by David Spiegelhalter
Amazon does some very odd classification of books...
wow, great to be in the fine company! Why not get them all for the nerd in your life? twitter.com/TimHarford/sta…
Some people in Norfolk seem to be preparing for rising sea levels 😉. But where are these wonderful conversions?m
Quite a tricky puzzle to do face down - but wood grain and pencil marks helped. Shame about 2 missing pieces
Today, @d_spiegel and I look at the CoMix contact surveys. 1️⃣ Adults reported an average of ~11 contacts per day, falling to ~3 after the first lockdown. 2️⃣ The mean number for children remained high after schools opened. 3️⃣ Behaviour is hard to predict. theguardian.com/theobserver/co…
Retweeted by David Spiegelhalter
"MPs and civil servants called to account for misleading use of statistics" theguardian.com/politics/2021/… OSR annual review: osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/publication/an…
Retweeted by David Spiegelhalter
the problem with counting some thing when it’s not agreed what it is twitter.com/anthonybmaster…
Very glad to be able to announce that Predict:Breast Cancer (breast.predict.nhs.uk) is now available in both traditional and simplified Chinese. This hugely increases the number of patients who can now be helped with personalised treatment information @paulpharoah @d_spiegel
Retweeted by David Spiegelhalter
My colleagues have done this fine empirical work on risk matrices - I really like the idea of moving away from a symmetric grid to give a feel for non-linearity. About time that this familiar tool was investigated! twitter.com/mesotronium/st…
A chance to meet the stats watchdog! (COI; I'm a non-exec on UKSA, that oversees their work) twitter.com/StatsRegulatio…
Yes we know More or Less covered this on Wednesday bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0… But we wrote this on Tuesday! Interesting that both teams came up with an almost identical narrative structure. twitter.com/anthonybmaster…
In today's Weekly Stats Uncovered, @d_spiegel and I look at statistics on mental health and suicides. If you are struggling to cope, please call Samaritans for free on 116 123 (UK or Ireland), visit their website, or contact other places of support. theguardian.com/theobserver/co…
Retweeted by David Spiegelhalter
📈Keynote 1: RSS and the pandemic📉@Deborah_Ashbyhby, Sheila Bi@simonbriscoecoe &am@anthonybmastersers 🗓Monday, 6th September 2021 🕠17:30 - 18:45 📌Exchange Auditorium/ Livestream Pl4ziUIq
Retweeted by David Spiegelhalter
Always best to check the numbers actually represent! twitter.com/anthonybmaster…
there have been many comparisons between risks of vaccines for young people and risks if they get Covid. But surely the appropriate comparison is with not being vaccinated, which does not necessarily mean getting Covid bbc.co.uk/news/health-58…
excellent clarification: analogies need to be used carefully, but this seems a very good one. twitter.com/anthonybmaster…
Apologies for errors in our latest Observer article. A demonstration of the care needed with stats… twitter.com/anthonybmaster…
In today's Weekly Stats Uncovered, @d_spiegel and I look at who receives critical care for Covid and the ICNARC reports. theguardian.com/theobserver/co…
Retweeted by David Spiegelhalter
this is an excellent and very valuable project by my colleagues twitter.com/acethecurious/…
On behalf of @ActuaryByDay here is a summary of the ONS deaths data to week ending 13 August. 1,270 more deaths were recorded compared to the 2015-19 year average. That’s 14% higher. Year-to-date there have been 364,655 deaths recorded; 8% higher than the 2015-19 average.
Retweeted by David Spiegelhalter
Today, @d_spiegel and I look at wage growth statistics. 1️⃣ As the virus spread in 2020, average pay fell. Now, there is a base effect when calculating relative changes. 2️⃣ There are compositional effects. 3️⃣ Caution needed when interpreting big changes. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Retweeted by David Spiegelhalter
Art of Statistics now out in US paperback! basicbooks.com/titles/david-s…
*Personal Tweet* Extraordinary feat by part of my family climbing 3 Peaks (Snowdon, Scafell Pike, Ben Nevis) over 6 days last week in bad weather, with 3- and 6-year old grandchildren walking all the way. In aid of a fine charity working in Cameroon - uk.virginmoneygiving.com/fundraiser-dis…
Today, @d_spiegel and I look at the theoretical herd immunity threshold. 1️⃣ A high proportion of adults have antibodies, so why are cases rising? 2️⃣ The neat formula has numerous simplifications. 3️⃣ Vaccines reduce infections and risks of severe disease. theguardian.com/theobserver/co…
Retweeted by David Spiegelhalter
I sound much better talking about excess deaths when it is not in English twitter.com/Behrang/status…
something on the need to consider a wide range of metrics when considering alternative policies twitter.com/RoyalStatSoc/s…
this is a fine development to help disrupt the anachronistic scientific publishing model - inspired funding by @ResEngland , and great leadership from my colleague @alex_freeman twitter.com/science_octopu…
good to see this. Masses of stats from Test and Trace, but they don't help us understand the effect of spending all those resources. This has been a problem from the very start. twitter.com/StatsRegulatio…
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