David Smith
38,012 followers
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wendyhalo 
The I.M.F.C. 
After the value of stablecoins Tether and Terra wobbled this week, is it finally time for regulators to clamp down on cryptocurrency?
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Labour will never win back the red wall until it can regain the faith of death match wrestlers who attack each other with garden strimmers bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan…
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Can anyone think of the stupid thing Britain did at the start of 2021 that might explain the large underperformance of exports relative to other advanced economies since then? I'm totally stumped.
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The full-scale of the Brexit horror show is starting to become clear. The economically rational response would be to try to reverse some of the damage. Instead the government seems set on making it worse. My latest. lnkd.in/eGqKrHEv
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More evidence of weakness in UK export growth in today's ONS trade data
Goods export values have pretty much recovered from the pandemic
But export volumes (i.e. adjusted for price changes) are almost 20% below 2019 levels
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GDP fell 0.1% in March and is now 1.2% above its pre-pandemic level:
▪️ services fell 0.2% (1.5% above)
▪️ manufacturing fell 0.2% (1.0% below)
▪️ construction grew 1.7% (3.7% above)
➡️ ow.ly/h1zh50J5UYE
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GDP contracted heading into Q2. Given the hit to real income in April and the end to free testing, it feels quite likely the economy will shrink in Q2.
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Weak @ONS GDP data out this morning showing a contraction in March of 0.1% (and growth of 0.8% in Q1 overall). So the economy is already in stagflation as the cost of living crisis intensifies. A short thread to follow...
Retweeted by David Smith Must read from @jameshurley. Another cracking investigation into alleged misuse of the bounce back loan scheme ... twitter.com/jameshurley/st…
Retweeted by David Smith The government had appeared to be in a little trouble, but I think this will have been turned around by the appearance of a Cabinet Minister mocking the idea of an Emergency Budget in a silly voice
Retweeted by David Smith Insights from @dsmitheconomics Should businesses be looking to attract and employ the older workforce who left during the pandemic? They hold valuable skills and could come back for the right job #ReadyForNextUK
Retweeted by David Smith Looking forward to hearing David's thoughts on our panel tomorrow
🏦 Bank of England: Are we better off after 25 years of independence?
⏰ 13:00 - 14:00
Sign up to the webinar here �us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regist…Mtwitter.com/dsmitheconomic…pz8
Retweeted by David Smith Bank is out on a limb with doom-filled forecast — we may be in for bumpy ride … .@dsmitheconomics @thetimes
thetimes.co.uk/article/the-ba…
Retweeted by David Smith Fantastic discussions with @dsmitheconomics on the current issues many businesses and individuals face in today's economy pre and post-pandemic #ReadyForNextUK
Retweeted by David Smith @dsmitheconomics Top column David. I’ve been thinking about lack of rain - as well as your list! As (of course) you know BoE’s 2023 forecast is outlier due to unrealistic conditional assumptions. Their framework is slavish to curve, govt policy - rather than servish to economic understanding
Retweeted by David Smith My Times piece today: The Bank of England’s growth forecast for next year is gloomier than anybody else’s, so far at least. But there may be a good reason for that. thetimes.co.uk/article/the-ba…
Retweeted by David Smith My Times piece today: The Bank of England’s growth forecast for next year is gloomier than anybody else’s, so far at least. But there may be a good reason for that. thetimes.co.uk/article/the-ba…
1905: the turbocharger is invented
1906: first recorded mention of prime minister vowing to "turbo charge economy", noted down by the Times of London
Retweeted by David Smith There are a few useful things in the Queen’s speech in areas like energy security and local planning rules, but the overall impression is of very small beer compared to the scale of the current economic challenge.
Retweeted by David Smith Great to see this @ST_Business coverage of our recent #Economy2030 Inquiry report on the UK's "Enduring Strengths" - in the report we also point to risks in a number of areas which need to be addressed
resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/20… twitter.com/ST_Business/st…
Retweeted by David Smith In a surprise late entrant to the ‘most absurd and ill-informed historical comparison in a newspaper column’ category, I give you Keir Starmer = Richard Nixon
#beergate 🙄dailymail.co.uk/debate/article…i
Retweeted by David Smith I for one am astonished to see that people who have been attacking Keir Starmer for not making a statement are now attacking him for making a statement.
Retweeted by David Smith Seeking funding for my PhD thesis, working title: "From Cummings to curry: the role of Durham Police in British politics, 2020-2022"
Retweeted by David Smith NEW: Angela Rayner says should would also quit if issued with an FPN over Beergate:
"We have a Prime Minister who has been found to have broken the rules, lied about it and then been fined. If I were issued with a fine, I would do the decent thing and step down"
Retweeted by David Smith Lovely bit of polling from Savanta: 41% of Brits have heard about Beergate, 74% Partygate - and 20% claim they know about Hikegate 'a fictional Covid-related scandal relating to Ed Davey'
Retweeted by David Smith 🏦 Bank of England: Are we better off after 25 years of independence?
📅 Thursday 12 May
⏰ 13:00 - 14:00
�@dsmitheconomicsics, Prof. Anne Siber@DrGerardLyonsons & Tom Clougherty
Signup to the event here 👇
Retweeted by David Smith If this is building back better, you’d hate to see worse, says @dsmitheconomics thetimes.co.uk/article/if-thi…
Retweeted by David Smith The GDP equation as government types briefing the papers seem to see it:
Y = C + I + (G - T) + (X - M) - R
Where R is red tape and apparently a huge number.
2/2
Retweeted by David Smith The traditional GDP equation:
Y = C + I + (G-T) + (X -M)
With C as consumption, I as investment, G as government spending, T as tax, X as exports and I as imports.
1/2
Retweeted by David Smith As @dsmitheconomics puts it "Any strategy designed to improve the long-term performance of the economy has to start with protecting and building on those areas in which the UK is strong — some of which are under threat, not least from Brexit."
Retweeted by David Smith @dsmitheconomics @ProfJTomlinson Yes, from Britain's Economic Prospects Reconsidered.
Retweeted by David Smith .@dsmitheconomics:
“we seem to be building back worse, with worst inflation for 30 yrs, badly functioning labour market with reduced workforce & labour shortages, poor short growth prospects, lot more government debt, & in prospect highest tax burden since UK emerging from WW2” twitter.com/ST_Business/st…
Retweeted by David Smith @dsmitheconomics When you disentangle the public and private sector contributions to productivity growth things look even worse bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/blog/private-s…
Retweeted by David Smith If this is building back better, you’d hate to see worse, says @dsmitheconomics thetimes.co.uk/article/if-thi…
Retweeted by David Smith 8 May 2022 @dsmitheconomics
Great data here re. UK exports, areas of comparative advantage, and last week's monetary tightening in response to the large inflation overshoot. Absolute gold for Y11 and Y13 students preparing for exams.
Retweeted by David Smith @dsmitheconomics Your very welcome Haydon
[BA Japan Mission]
Retweeted by David Smith The financial crisis, Brexit, the pandemic and the Russian invasion have reduced the economy’s underlying growth rate @dsmitheconomics.
In other news, it has been a big week for interest rates with monetary policy tightening in response to the huge inflation overshoot.
Retweeted by David Smith Agree with @dsmitheconomics that we need to grow #productivity in sectors where the UK has strengths. But the problem is that we are not as strong in those sectors anymore. See @TPIProductivity analysis in productivity.ac.uk/publications/d… by @DianeCoyle1859 & Jen-Chung Mei twitter.com/dsmitheconomic…
Retweeted by David Smith Spot on -as always !! twitter.com/dsmitheconomic…
Retweeted by David Smith Do you remember a time when this was supposed to be a period of renewal for the country & the economy after the pandemic? As things stand, we are building back worse. Excellent from @dsmitheconomics twitter.com/jkaonline/stat…
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