Crisis Group
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A flurry of diplomatic activity is building up this week around what the EU's foreign policy chief called "the last bullet" left for reviving the 2015 agreement limiting Iran's nuclear program in return for sanctions relief.
The stakes could not be higher�z
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Four years on from Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA, there’s an urgent need to prevent a new nuclear crisis in the Middle East, say experts from @theELN, @CrisisGroup and members of the @ecfr council. See the statement: europeanleadershipnetwork.org/group-statemen… twitter.com/crisisgroup/st…
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“We need more accountability around sanctions policy — when and how they’re successful.”
@mwhanna1 → @voxdotcom on the unintended consequences of sanctions.
fal.cn/3os8k
A short video take on @CrisisGroup's view on efforts to revive the #IranNuclearDeal. The last hurdle concerns the US designation of the #IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization. To overcome it will not be cost-free politically, but imperative for the sake of non-proliferation. twitter.com/CrisisGroup/st…
Retweeted by Crisis Group Under the #IranNuclearDeal, the time Iran would have needed to produce enough material for a nuclear bomb was one year.
Today, it's a matter of days.
After a year of negotiations, a new agreement is almost ready. Now political courage is needed:
Close the deal.
🎧 The Taliban’s recent decision to keep girls’ secondary schools closed has outraged many parts of Afghan society and made the loosening of Western sanctions even less likely.
@smithkabull and@Afghan_Policyy talk about draconian Taliban policy ↓
fal.cn/3orRQ6
“The UN is at a perilous moment – but peril can help one think harder”.
@RichardGowan1 reflects on the future of global governance after the pandemic and war in Ukraine.
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Aleppo was once the engine of Syria’s economic growth.
If the regime & its allies hope to bring prosperity back to the devastated city, they must limit rampant predation and provide guarantees for stable economic activity.
crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…
Humanitarian aid remains critical for ameliorating Syrians’ suffering.
While large-scale reconstruction aid is out of the question, small internationally funded projects – for instance, those reviving bakeries or neighbourhood clinics – could help ease suffering.
Damascus can take important steps to reduce violence. The regime has a history of slowly bringing informal armed actors under its control.
Russia & Iran can press militia leaders to stop extorting businesses and abusing civilians.
So, what is to be done?
The Assad regime, Russia and Iran are doing little to get Aleppo back on its feet.
They must commit to the city’s reconstruction and rebuild key infrastructure.
Restarting a business in the post-war order is inconceivable.
Rebuilding civilian homes is also an enormous challenge.
In practice, only those close to security forces or militias can secure permission to make repairs.
Regime agents and militias loot homes, demand bribes and engage in other forms of predation.
Citizens are powerless to challenge them.
They have also taken control of the city's major economic activities, including electricity supplies.
This new mosaic of warlords and militia leaders has replaced the former entrepreneurial class.
The result?
Dire living conditions, especially in eastern Aleppo, and a shaky security situation.
Following the rebels’ defeat 4 years later, a patchwork of security forces returned to Aleppo – including militias and regime cronies.
Anyone with a gun can exercise authority.
A phrase attributed to militiamen sums it up: “Hey, we are the state!”
When fighting came to Aleppo in 2012, the city split between regime and rebel-held areas.
The regime kept control of the affluent western part, which was largely spared.
Rebels took control of the east, much of which was destroyed by indiscriminate bombing.
Once an economic powerhouse, and now in ruins, the Syrian city of Aleppo is a shadow of its former self.
A mix of regime & militia rule is hampering a return to stability and prosperity.
New report on what can be done �crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…zC
Worth catching this rich discussion on Russia in Africa. The upshot: Russia is a "virtual great power" with more breadth than depth on the continent -- but it will seek to deepen engagement as ties with the West worsen. twitter.com/alanboswell/st…
Retweeted by Crisis Group For years, Russia worked to rebuild influence across Africa. Now what? Does Russia have an Africa strategy, or just thrives on opportunism? And, what power plays might we expect from Moscow now?
My podcast discussion w/ @SamRamani2. (Good to be back!)
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s3-…
Retweeted by Crisis Group “Photography is my personal revolution”, says former FARC member Jacinto.
In this piece from our Latin American photo project, he describes life as a civilian in Colombia since the historic 2016 peace deal.
fal.cn/3ormb
The war in Ukraine has shattered European perceptions of security and shaken the world economy.
How can global leaders help shape a way out of this conflict?
Join me and @Frank_Giustra for a Twitter Space discussion Wednesday 11 May at 12.30ET/6.30CET. Link coming soon!
Retweeted by Crisis Group Since that report came out, more incidents were recorded.
Maguindanao is perhaps the most affected province, even though tension and firefights in some areas occurred in Lanao del Sur, Basilan and even Tawi-Tawi.
Still four hours until the polls close.
rappler.com/nation/maguind…
Retweeted by Crisis Group 🎧 Russia has bolstered ties with countries all over Africa – particularly those plagued by internal violence and disillusioned with the West.
What does Moscow hope to gain in Africa? How will its invasion of Ukraine affect these goals? crisisgroup.org/africa/what-no…T
These include the legal opinions justifying the Soleimani strike, which I examine in this @just_security article. The Biden admin should do some legal threat reduction and withdraw these dangerous use of force opinions. (2/2)
justsecurity.org/79700/time-for…
Retweeted by Crisis Group I assess prospects for #UnitedNations reform in era of #UkraineRussiaWar @CrisisGroup:
❌ Fundamental #UNSC reform is unlikely.
But🇺🇳can focus on:
✅ Shock-proofing global economy;
✅ Fighting misinformation and disinformation;
✅ Reviving arms controlcrisisgroup.org/global/ukraine…2z
Retweeted by Crisis Group Powerful message from @DrTedros in Ukraine twitter.com/drtedros/statu…
Retweeted by Crisis Group “Ukrainian women have been among the most trafficked in the world since the fall of the Soviet Union. And since the war began, instances of predation have surged at border crossings and railway stations” — powerful + moving reporting by @AzadehMoaveni lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v44/…
Retweeted by Crisis Group #OTD in 2018, President Trump announced that his administration was withdrawing the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal.
It was a massive gamble. It was a failed gamble. But should be an instructive gamble. 🧵�vj
Retweeted by Crisis Group recent weeks saw a rise in violence greater than any since the II war ended.Starting in February, the region’s de facto leadership has reported near-daily military incursions,shelling &other dangerous activities, &Azerbaijani authorities also noted fightin crisisgroup.org/europe-central…
Retweeted by Crisis Group 🧵Here are three NO-s, one YES, and one message of HOPE related to the victory of opposition candidate in#SouthOssetiaa:twitter.com/CivilGe/status…v
Retweeted by Crisis Group The lives of those submerged in Latin American crime have, over the past decades, become meaner and shorter, says @itbriscoe.
Meanwhile, the people who try to document these fleeting and shadowy existences risk violent payback.
fal.cn/3oqnm
New #CrisisWatch highlights conflict improvements in:
🇸🇴 Somalia
🇲🇿 Mozambique
🇹🇭 Thailand
🇾🇪 Yemen
🇸🇦 Saudifal.cn/3oq8ErTuADjGowA
A humanitarian success for @antonioguterres who hashed this out with Putin and Zelenskyy. twitter.com/olgatokariuk/s…
Retweeted by Crisis Group Writing for @LRB, @AzadehMoaveni unveils the dangers Ukrainian women fleeing war face in Poland ⇓
lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v44/…
Retweeted by Crisis Group At least 14 illegal armed outfits have carved up power, influence and territories in Mexico’s Michoacán state, says @falko_ernst.
A viable strategy to reduce the violence has not been found, while civilians are increasingly caught in the crossfire.
fal.cn/3opEi
In West Africa, a slew of coups has left international actors wondering how to respond.
In an oped in @GJIA_Online, Rinaldo Depagne writes that partners should avoid isolating the putschists and seek to engage constructively instead.
gjia.georgetown.edu/2022/05/05/pri…
New #CrisisWatch highlights deteriorations in:
🇲🇩 Moldova
🇮🇶 Irfal.cn/3oprbaTQE
UN SPEECH | The Ukraine War and UN Reform 👇
crisisgroup.org/global/ukraine…6
Will the #UkraineRussiaWar lead to fundamental reforms to the #UNSC and UN Charter?
And if it doesn't, where does @UN go from here?
Here's the text of a lecture I gave to @TheGCSP on Ukraine and the UN, now online @CrisisGroup. [1/2] crisisgroup.org/global/ukraine…
Retweeted by Crisis Group #Ankara and #Athens are accusing each other of committing unprecedented airspace violations. Dialogue has stalled.
Retweeted by Crisis Group .@RussiaUN convenes a #UNSC meeting on the "medieval barbarism" of Ukrainian forces today.
It's probably just making some diplomatic noise, but I tell @TheEconomist it *might* be making case for Russian escalation, eg a formal declaration of war. [1/3] espresso.economist.com/75194bcd73e801…
Retweeted by Crisis Group 🎧 The West has massively ramped up supplies of advanced weaponry to Ukraine, with the U.S. alone promising billions in military aid.
@OlyaOlikerr explains how Moscow might respond ⇊b
I appeared on the International Crisis Group's Horn podcast
We discussed Russia's strategy in Africa and how the Ukraine war will impact its influence in Africa
crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-af…
Retweeted by Crisis Group Trying to keep track of crises around the globe?
Our conflict tracker #CrisisWatch highlights recent trends & warns of possible escalations. Browse for more ☟
fal.cn/3onIW
🎧 NEW EPISODE | What Now for Russia in Africa?
@alanboswelll and@SamRamani22 discuss Russia’s influence in Africa and how the geopolitical spillover from the Ukraine war might play out on the continent ⇊crisisgroup.org/africa/what-no…l
🎧 @SecDeff has announced that NATO members will accelerate the provision of advanced arms to#Ukrainee.
The Kremlin has warned of retaliation.
Is the danger of NATO-Russia confrontation higher than ever?@OlyaOlikerr explains ⇊fal.cn/3onpar
"Many profiles used the same line: ‘You will be safe with me.’"
@AzadehMoaveni's sensitive dispatch from the Polish-Ukraine border on the predation faced by Ukrainian women fleeing peril.
lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v44/…
Retweeted by Crisis Group Russia's influence in Africa is growing but still is a far cry from being a great power on the continent.
Insightful convo between @SamRamani2 and @alanboswell
crisisgroup.org/africa/what-no… via @CrisisGroup
Retweeted by Crisis Group How can multilateral organisations like the @UN contribute to crisis mitigation between #nuclear powers?
I wrote this little note for @ChallengesFnd on behalf of @CrisisGroup before the #UkraineRussianWar began.
The topic hasn't exactly gone away since.
globalchallenges.org/2022-nuclear-m…
Retweeted by Crisis Group Some believed the significance of Mr. Úsuga’s arrest lay not in its immediate consequences for the cartel, but rather in his “power to reveal about the state complicity in these violent movements,” said @dickinsonbeth of International Crisis Group. nytimes.com/2022/05/05/nyr…
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