Heather Long

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Latest government progress report on Germany's dependency on Russian energy: Oil down from 35% last year to now 12%, gas down from 55% to 35%, coal down from 50% to 8%.
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Scoop: White House *looking* at $10K or more of per-borrower debt forgiveness for earners under $125-150K single/$250-300K couples prior year, per sources Overwhelming majority would qualify ***No final decision on amount canceled or means test*** washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022…
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Charlie Munger on the stock market: We’ve never had anything like it in terms of the pure gambling taking place in the market now. #BRK2022
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Washington Post Editorial Board: “Biden should resist cancelling student debt. Here is a better policy.” Bottom line: Help those who need it most. Expanding Pell Grants or other aid for needy would be far better than cancelling student debt for all washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…
A whistleblower warned the FDA about a formula plant months before babies’ deaths. MONTHS. MONTHS. Babies died, many were sickened, and it’s become an incredibly stressful if not impossible task for some parents to find formula. via @hbottemiller politico.com/news/2022/04/2…
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NEW: WH requests $33B in additional funding for Ukraine, including: * $20.4B military assistance * $8.5B economic aid * $3B humanitarian relief
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Don't freak out about the GDP report, the underlying inertial components were strong. The headline was -1.4% growth at an annual rate. BUT, inventories subtracted 0.8pp and net exports subtracted 3.2pp. Consumption, fixed investment, and key domestic demand components strong.
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The US economy declined -1.4% in Q1, the worst performance in the recovery Key takeaways: 1) The decline came from big jump in imports and decline in inventory (autos) 2) Gov spend is dropping 3) Consumer & biz spending remain strong, a good sign for Q2 washingtonpost.com/business/2022/…
GDP of -1.4% in Q1 is a red flag of how quickly this recovery can sour. But here's why many economists are NOT panicking: Consumer & business spending remains strong. Consumer spending +2.7% in Q1 (up from 2.5% in Q4) Business investment +9.2% in Q1 (up from 2.9% in Q4)
Just In: The US economy declined -1.4% in the first quarter, a sharp slowdown from +6.9% growth in Q4 2021 The big factors dragging down growth = drop in inventories, exports & gov spending Remember it typically takes 2 quarters of negative growth for a recession
More proof of just how crazy the real estate market is lately: A Fairfax, Virginia home with A PERSON SQUATTING IN THE BASEMENT has sold for $805,000 All cash offer. Home bought “as is” wusa9.com/article/news/l…
Brief thread on how quickly Fed policy can affect people. The Fed hiked only 0.25% so far, but its words have pushed market rates up a lot already (expectations of many more future hikes). One result: Buying the median US home costs a lot more today than a few months ago. 1/5
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Awesome job alert: WaPo Opinion is looking for a great editor to oversee econ/biz columnists. I’m happy to answer any questions. Come work with great journalists like @crampell @asymmetricinfo @helaineolen @henryolsenEPPC and me washpost.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/washingtonpost…
U.S. Secretary of Commerce, @SecRaimondo, will discuss sanctions and the recovery with @byHeatherLong. Register to join #SABEW22 in person or online. bit.ly/376NKdw
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Manchin TODAY talked w/ @mikedebonis, others about raising the corporate tax rate to 25 percent and the capital gains rate to 28 percent. Sinema has ruled these out for more than months & months At this point, it is basically inconceivable Manchin has not seen Sinema's remarks
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Fears mount inside White House that Senator Manchin won’t agree to any deal on “Build Back Better” (or whatever it is called these days…) washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022… via @JStein_WaPo
DC Metro tonight is about 50% mask / 50% no mask (It’s been four days since the judge’s ruling that struck down the travel mask mandate)
"We don't need to go there," @ClevelandFed President Loretta Mester on a 75 basis point hike. She says she does support a 50 basis point rise in May and a few more to get to that 2 and a half percentage level by the end of the year.
Retweeted by Heather Long
"This is worse than the plague" It's clear from WeChat messages that Chinese gov't officials and researchers knew about covid in late December 2019, but the truth was kept from the public. We need a serious investigation into how this pandemic began. washingtonpost.com/opinions/inter…
This is spot on (and note the "outside consultants" were from McKinsey -- yet another big mistake by that firm) twitter.com/WaltHickey/sta…
Quite a statement from IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva: "It is very very early, in my view, to go and buy a coffin for globalization." Christine Lagarde adds: "I think we are going to revisit" the terms of trade, but not end globalization
Fed Chair Powell: "We really are committed to using our tools to get 2% inflation back." He reiterates 50bps hike is very much "on the table" for May (and beyond). [He is speaking at the IMF spring meeting]
Chatter at IMF spring meetings 1. Perception of Germany is terrible 2. Far more reputational damage than expected 3. EU embargo off limits until after French election 4. People are genuinely rethinking China post-war 5. LatAm is the clear favorite in EM 6. People are long Turkey
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What's different about the pandemic surge in rent prices? A: It's happening in places that were once considered "affordable." This isn't a NYC/SF/Seattle phenomenon. It's a Sarasota, Tampa, Vegas and Pheonix problem. washingtonpost.com/business/inter… via @abhabhattarai @chrisalcantara
What a 🧵 There are moments in all of our lives where we see something deeply wrong. Only 1 player on the 1978 Penn State football team stood up to do what was right. What a difference that 1 player made…twitter.com/TomJunod/statu…k
NEWS: Ukrainian, U.S. officials including Janet Yellen walked out of the G-20 meeting this morning when Russian officials began to speak, per people familiar. Story TK
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With Shanghai in a near total lockdown, this is a map of the commercial ships currently waiting offshore to be loaded and offloaded of goods; exacerbating global supply chain woes
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It's a 4/20 miracle. @washingtonpost will drop its paywall from Wednesday afternoon to Friday night. Lots of great journalism, past and present, all of it free.
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Biden is nominating ⁦@Michael_S_Barr⁩ to be the Fed’s top banking cop, marking a second attempt to fill the slot after Republicans thwarted the path ahead for Sarah Bloom Raskin, the administration’s original pick for VC for supervision washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022…
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"We have not really had a Citizen Kane of the digital age, but Elon Musk might be it." What does this crazy Musk attempt to buy Twitter really mean? This is a great column from @ShiraOvide breaking down what this *really* means. nytimes.com/2022/04/14/tec…
The @PostGuild spent 2 yrs on this report of pay inequity, patterns of discrimination & The Post's struggle to retain Black employees. I'm proud to work with those who know it's just as important to shine a light inward as it is to hold others to account. postguild.org/2022-pay-study/
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Encouraging sign: Drilling permits for new wells in the Permian Basin (Texas) hit an all-time high in March. High oil prices are motivating drillers to drill more in the US. rystadenergy.com/newsevents/new… #oil
The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate jumped to 5.13% last week, the highest since November 2018, per @MBAMortgage This has been a rapid increase. It was at 3% six months ago. The last 2 percentage point move in such a short time was in May 1994.
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U.S. inflation remains *much* higher than euro area inflation. This is the 12-month change in core HICP, a somewhat comparable measure for the two economies. The US has consistently been ~4pp higher than Europe. That is a HUGE difference.
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Wall Street types are looking at this white chart and seeing signs of optimism. They focus on the purple line (inflation ex-food & energy) and how it's kinda flattening out But like @TheStalwart & @Neil_Irwin, I'm worried about the next chart = a big spike in services inflation
You can find the full list here (scroll to pdf page 9): bls.gov/news.release/p…
To put it another way: Commodities were up +14.2% in past year -- the biggest annual increase since 1947 Service inflation was up +5.1% in past year -- the biggest annual increase since 1991 twitter.com/byHeatherLong/…
Inflation is more than a story of gas prices... Groceries +10% --> biggest spike since 1981 Meat/poultry/fish +13.8% ->biggest since 1979 New cars 12.6%->biggest ever Electricity +11.1% -> biggest since '06 Home furnishing 10.8% ->biggest ever Rent 5.1% ->largest since 1991
I was in Michigan last week - in one of the most competitive congressional districts in the country. You spend an afternoon outside of a grocery store and you’ll hear an earful. The Biden admin’s label - “Putin’s price hike” isn’t convincing to some … twitter.com/byHeatherLong/…
Retweeted by Heather Long
Where Americans are seeing big inflation spikes: Fuel oil 70% Gas 48% Used cars 35% Hotels 29% Airfare 24% Utility gas 22% Bacon 18% Oranges 18% Furniture 16% Beef 16% New cars 13% Chicken 13% Milk 13% Appliances 12% Fish 11% Eggs 11% Coffee 11% Food at home 10% Rent (OER) 4.5%
Take a look at the monthly inflation chart. March --> up 1.2% in just a single month Feb +0.8% Jan +0.6% Dec +0.6% Nov +0.7% Oct +0.9% There's hope that March will be the peak, esp. if gas prices don't jump again. But services inflation is also picking up...
Most worrying thing in the CPI report: Services excluding energy services up 0.6%, and has accelerated each of the last three months. Even if durable goods and energy prices stabilize, that suggests real broadening of underlying inflation.
Retweeted by Heather Long
Wow. "The food index increased 8.8%, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending May 1981." The Fed might like to look at inflation without energy & food, but Americans sure don't look at it that way.
JUST IN: US inflation hit 8.5% in March – the highest level since the end of 1981. High gas prices accounted for half the March inflation spike. (Gas prices peaked on March 11). Rising food and rent prices also hurt. Wages (up 5.6% in past yr) are not keeping up with inflation
NEW: In spots around the United States, crypto industry players are drawing up language for legislation they want passed by state legislators, and then using their growing clout to get it written into law. with @yaffebellany nytimes.com/2022/04/10/us/…
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Crude oil prices have fallen a lot in the past month, but the average gas price is still above $4 a gallon. Why? Here's the best explanation: Gas stations make most of their profits when oil prices fall washingtonpost.com/business/2022/… via @andrewvandam
Good news: My orchid is thriving! Thank you to everyone who provided advice. Twitter can be a brutal place, but sometimes it brings people together and offers much needed inspiration and info. 🙏#SpringBreakk#FlowerssB
NEW: Gridiron organizers say that 53 people contracted covid after their annual dinner on Saturday.
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Almost exactly 10 years after @SecretService ‘s humiliating Cartagena security breach, the agency faces evidence it was infiltrated by foreign intelligence operation. If true this incident is 10 x worse for POTUS security twitter.com/JasonMBrodsky/…
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