Betsey Stevenson
51,527 followers
chadialraies 
Ashok Devanampriya 
Lady_Verta 
I continue to worry about childcare, particularly high quality early childhood education and other education services. The fact that inflation is so muted in education and childcare speaks to our (low) national demand for these services.
The price of services not including shelter fell -0.1 percent which is a sign that wage-price spirals have not taken hold. Inflation was driven by demand expanding faster than supply. The Fed is bringing down demand and that is pricing down inflation.
Combined now with slowing inflation in October and I am feeling very optimistic about that soft landing. twitter.com/BetseyStevenso…
The October inflation report is incredibly encouraging. Inflation has been slowing while the economy has been able to continue to heal and expand.
I would love fewer weeks worked and more people in the labor force. US male labor force participation is way below that of German male labor force participation. twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Anyway, that’s the highlights. You can read my quick policy brief here: poverty.umich.edu/2022/11/04/oct…
And if you like it, lemme know, because I might be back to do something similar next month.
But this might be the most important chart I’ve drawn in years: The U.S. labor market is trying to recover without any corresponding recovery in the childcare sector. The magnitudes here are just enormous and they speak to the very different structure of work and family life.
There’s been a remarkable rise in participation among prime-age women of color. White men, not so much.
There are also striking differences by race and ethnicity. Here, I’m focusing on those over 20 (to shift focus away from education decisions), and you see that Black and hispanic labor force participation rates now exceed those of whites.
This coheres with the broader story of the pandemic, which is that it hurt those at the bottom — here, those with less education — more. And they’re also the folks who have gained the least from the recovery. (Here I crunched micro data to zero in on prime-age workers.)
Labor force participation is (nearly) back, baby. The real strength in participation is among college-educated folks. I worry that folks with less education remain on the sidelines. The argument that we need this recovery to continue is that we need to bring these folks back.
It’s time to call this cycle what it is: A nearly complete labor market recovery after the deepest recession in several generations.
It’s a recovery that has benefited nearly everyone.
🧵 I’m trying something different this jobs report: Rather than focus on “the number” (or “the vibe”), I want to try to put the report in a broader perspective, and also explore some important demographic trends.
Here’s what I’m seeing:poverty.umich.edu/2022/11/04/oct…T
Weak labor market recoveries, like the one in 2008, have left long-term scars on vulnerable workers. This time, the recovery has been both faster and broader-based. datawrapper.de/_/6rI6W
Despite critics' claims pandemic aid would weaken people's attachment to the labor force, that support helped fuel a rapid economic rebound that, in turn, has led to a nearly complete labor market recovery. poverty.umich.edu/2022/11/04/oct…
Strong jobs report..lots of hiring, broad based, and wage growth is slowing slight. The Fed just might get us that soft landing
As #inflation continues to rise, voters are getting more and more worried about the economy.
To alleviate some of that concern, @BetseyStevenson, professor of public policy and economics, provided her expertise on @CBSNews @FaceTheNation.
Read ➡️ myumi.ch/EkMN5.
Retweeted by Betsey Stevenson As a middle aged white lady, I find this satire hilarious. twitter.com/shadesofgreave…
We got the desired v-shape recovery, but it came with the cost of higher inflation. A long, drawn out period of lower GDP and higher unemployment would have been much worse. twitter.com/mtkonczal/stat…
Economics is the study of how people make choices: learn how to make better choices in your own life and better predict the choices that other people make. #teachecon #EconEdMonth twitter.com/Georgiaecon/st…
So everyone has seen this by now, but if you haven't, watch it to learn both what's bad about TikTok (the TikTok's that led to this) and what's good about it (this amazing response). twitter.com/SomaKazima/sta…
Beautiful concluding sentence: "everyone, in their way, is trying to find the thing you’re trying to find" twitter.com/jaycaspiankang…
American physicians have been arguing against single payer systems for over a century because of fears about the impact on their income.
Our higher ed system is broken, don't use that as a reason to argue in favor of our broken healthcare system. twitter.com/olsonplanner/s…
Without a doubt this was my best Halloween costume ever. twitter.com/MRevUniversity…
The thing about this response is that it is honest: why tackle gun violence when most kids won’t be killed?
If we have to do this by the numbers: 100% of kids become aware of the threat of gun violence. For many,
it shapes their feeling of security & even their ability to learn. twitter.com/GRomePow/statu…
I wish American parents would take all their book banning and curriculum monitoring energy and turn it toward the real crisis in American schools:
kids are not safe at school. twitter.com/politico/statu…
What are interesting (non-obvious) examples of positive and negative externalities?
Economics version: What's going on with the stock market? twitter.com/KouMurayama/st…
A student yesterday asked me if I could recommend a book that talked about economics AND ethics/moral and political philosophy. Recommendations?
“What you don’t want to do is just keep whacking the people that are getting hurt the most by inflation ... We don’t want to cut spending on the critical safety net.” - @BetseyStevenson on how NOT to fix high inflation.
Read more: brook.gs/3EPvST4
#CPI #inflation
Retweeted by Betsey Stevenson #ICYMI: Last week @WendyEdelberg, @JustinWolfers, & @BetseyStevenson got together on Twitter Spaces to go over the latest #CPI release - read key takeaways from their conversation here ⬇️ brookings.edu/2022/10/17/4-k…
Retweeted by Betsey Stevenson Inflation redistributes. Home owners gain, renters lose; holders of cash lose (cash loses purchasing power more quickly), those with debt fixed at nominal levels win (value of the debt is eroded). Job changers get bigger than normal pay increases, while real wages of stayers fall twitter.com/FaceTheNation/…
Higher core inflation reflects prices in the service sector going up and a large share of the input costs in the service sector is labor. Higher labor costs make sense-people want their wages to keep up with inflation-but that is a harder kind of inflation cycle to stop. twitter.com/FaceTheNation/…
The problem with inflation is that some people do okay--remember you are paying those higher prices to someone--and some people get left behind. twitter.com/FaceTheNation/…
On @FaceTheNation just now, @BetseyStevenson talking about the child care crisis.
Gonna keep saying this: The 2021-22 legislative effort didn't succeed. But the need for action hasn't gone away.
Retweeted by Betsey Stevenson Tune in to hear me talk about families twitter.com/CBSNewsPress/s…
It's a difficult economic time around the globe, inflation is high & labor markets are tight in many countries. I'm excited to dig into economic issues with @margbrennan twitter.com/CBSNewsPress/s…
If you want to hear all of this in a charming Aussie accent, plus @BetseyStevenson quietly flirting with me under the guise of discussing the CPI, and @WendyEdelberg trying to keep it all professional, well, we're about to go live...
twitter.com/BrookingsInst/…
Retweeted by Betsey Stevenson What a CPI report! Join us as we figure this out... twitter.com/BrookingsInst/…
After the Consumer Price Index report is released tomorrow, join us for a quick breakdown of the numbers with @WendyEdelberg, @BetseyStevenson, and @JustinWolfers. DM us with any questions you want us to address in the discussion. twitter.com/i/spaces/1LyxB…
Retweeted by Betsey Stevenson Economists should be better at recognizing and appreciating the many stars in the field. With so much weight on the Nobel many worthy scholars are left without the recognition that they deserve. twitter.com/R2Rsquared/sta…
Everyone talks about bank runs in Its a Wonderful Life, but it is also at the heart of Mary Poppins. I’ll never forget my children’s fear as they watched the bank run in Mary Poppins.
Here's how we teach the Diamond-Dybvig model to first-year undergraduates (from the Stevenson-Wolfers textbook):
Retweeted by Betsey Stevenson A fantastic Nobel in economics today: now as much as ever we must understand the importance of the banking system in improving human welfare and the fragility of that banking system. As this thread nicely lays out @benbernanke, Diamond, and Dybvig is crucial to our understanding. twitter.com/gchodorowreich…
“The job growth in September came largely from industries that drove pre-pandemic job growth, but have struggled in the wake of the pandemic,” said @BetseyStevenson, @fordschool economist on the September 2022 #JobsReport. #UMPovertySolutions
Retweeted by Betsey Stevenson Thank you @RomaineBostick for mentioning the @business_econ conference in Chicago. I will be speaking on the labor market with the amazing @BetseyStevenson & @MHorriganUpjohn. twitter.com/KNyeEcon/statu…
Retweeted by Betsey Stevenson My first blog is out today for @UMich 's Poverty Solutions with @BetseyStevenson
poverty.umich.edu/2022/10/07/sep….
We look at which industries, age groups, and sectors faired best in this morning's #jobs report.
One big takeaway: The public sector is not back, and is falling behind twitter.com/BetseyStevenso…
Retweeted by Betsey Stevenson Men have added back all their nonfarm jobs & gained another 429,000. Women just this month broke even. And yet women's labor force participation has recovered more than men's has.
According to employers men are back in jobs. According to the household survey women are. twitter.com/BetseyStevenso…
The employer keeps painting a picture of a stronger and tighter labor market than people are describing in the household survey. twitter.com/BetseyStevenso…
A puzzle is why the employer and household surveys have told us different things since the pandemic started. This compares an adjusted measure of jobs from the household survey that should be equivalent to the employer survey (and was pre-pandemic).
datawrapper.de/_/oI2sx
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