Adam Posen

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Yes, this is basically lining up the court for a Dred Scott II decision. It also sets up the scenario where persecuted people don't stop at a blue state: the end of the line is Canada. So what happens when the Trumpist US gives Canada the ultimatum: extradite them or else? 16/n
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This sets the US up for the nightmare scenario of red states demanding extradition of women, doctors, and LGBT people who have fled to other states to escape the tyranny of religiously conservative red states that are no longer functioning democracies. 15/n
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They demand everyone behave as if voting and protests in designated zones is their best chance to change things, when anyone with a lick of analytic sense can clearly see that the GOP and SCOTUS DGAF about what the majority of the population want. 21/n
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I have been screaming that 1876 was returning to American politics for years. It was not a false alarm. Maybe the problem is that we don’t teach the 1876-1966 period as the anti-democratic, White supremacist, and state-authorized brutally violent America that it was. twitter.com/brynntannehill…
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“This is just emblematic of the bigger complexities the administration is going to face if it actually wants to put some rubber to the road in its effort to move supply chains, because China is in almost every supply chain,” says @melovely_max. washingtonpost.com/business/2022/…
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Medical inflation was held down during by caring for COVID patients - very expensive for hospitals. Burnout, high quit rates & staffing shortages exacerbated⬆️ in costs. Add backlog of surgeries, untreated problems, long COVID, mergers & medical cost poised to surge as well.
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The pernicious and worrisome increase we are watching is in rent & ownership & medical costs. Shelter has begun to move up but has a long way to run. Takes at least a year for full effects of ⬆️ in rents and home ownership costs to show up in CPI measures. We’re still ⬆️ in 1Q.
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So medium of exchange. Much unit of account. Very store of value.
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The US labor market might be cooling down, which could ease some inflation. #PIIECharts Learn more: piie.com/blogs/realtime…
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An inflation rate in the UK that is heading to 10% or more has left central banks with “no choice”, in the words of @AdamPosen, but to show some guts & push rates higher, even if it means, in the midst of the Ukraine war, triggering a recession. theguardian.com/business/2022/…
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a) Good for the admin for finally doing this, BUT b) One year is too way too short: to encourage investment/production in UKR, they need LONG TERM tariff-free access to the US market c) why were these "national security" tariffs ever in place to begin with??!
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The economic policy implications of the Russia-Ukraine war for the EU are vast, including the humanitarian crisis of millions of refugees, loss of exports to Russia, the fallout of sanctions, & energy costs & sources. #PIIECharts Learn more: piie.com/publications/p…
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Why is inflation rising less in China? Partly because China also uses beggar-thy-neighbor trade policy to control prices. Last year, it limited exports of its steel production and raised export taxes to tame surging steel prices at home. by @yifanxie wsj.com/articles/china…
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The unemployment rate remained at 3.6% in April. However, labor force participation fell & remains subdued. Though the unemployment rate is nearly recovered, employment rate for workers age 25-54 remains 0.6 percentage point below its Feb 2020 level. More: piie.com/blogs/realtime…
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BoE's Saunders also talks about the role Brexit may be playing in Britain's inflation overshoot (a point also well made recently by PIIE's @AdamPosen, a former MPC member)
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I missed this fantastic discussion of the economic and political impact of Brexit at @BylineFest because I had to be on another panel. But thanks @LizWebsterLD @jdportes @AdamPosen @jonlis1 Watch “Brexit Britain” on #Vimeo vimeo.com/707756563?ref=…
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Hitting the "softish" landing is going to be tough. The policy path seems pretty clear for the next few months, but beyond that it's anyone's guess. Will we see more dissents? I have no idea. But let's look back at the history of FOMC 👎 votes#FedThreadd 1/8
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Consider the following scenario. Starmer is fined. He resigns. Johnson, having been fined, and currently being scrutinized for misleading Parliament, doesn‘t resign. Press and Tory party go along with that, as if this were normal. Sound improbable? Not to me.
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Just thinking about the wave of death threats against Anita Hill after her 1991 testimony, and about how Christine Blasey Ford has had to move multiple times and how the safety of their families never seemed to be a top concern for civility enthusiasts.
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The U.S. is experiencing a labor shortage that's partly fueled by a drop-off in immigration, which ground to a halt during the pandemic. By some estimates, the U.S. now has 2 million fewer immigrants than it would have if the pace had stayed the same. apne.ws/Qtyt6g4
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US Steel is using its tariff windfall to finance a move South - and away from unions bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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USTR retains tariffs as leverage, even if this reasoning is not within the scope of WTO rules. Of benefit to the US strategically, but Tai dismissed a @PIIE report on the possible impacts on inflation. Makes it tough to identify the driving goals. piie.com/publications/p…
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This is why policies to “bring back manufacturing” won’t necessarily bring them to the places that lost the jobs in the first place twitter.com/ProducerCities…
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Enabling people without a fixed address to open a bank account is an obvious but important step and long overdue. Great to see from HSBC twitter.com/JohnKwan_Tech/…
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"It's not like they're going to *actually* ban Muslims" "It's not like they're *actually* going to revolt violently" "It's not like they'll *actually* ban books" "It's not like they're *actually* going to overturn Roe" So far, "alarmists" have been more right than quietists
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Sharing a recent piece by @MWSBrookingsFP that makes a case for pursuing a pragmatic approach for deterring aggression and defending Taiwan, highlighting the benefits of deterrence by punishment and the risks of deterrence by denial. brook.gs/3kKQ3Gp via @BrookingsInst
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For conservatives, that’s exactly the point and how Alito’s opinion fits into the broader assault on the post-1960s civil rights order and the Right’s anti-democratic radicalization: It’s all part of a multi-level reactionary counter-mobilization against multiracial pluralism.
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Remember this quote, as it captures the essence of the Supreme Court’s role through most of history, and certainly today, so precisely: An institution siding with tradition over change, with existing power structures over attempts to level hierarchies, with the old over the new. twitter.com/ronbrownstein/…
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Must read 🧵 on why tight labor markets matter for inflation, even if wages are not rising faster than inflation Comprehensive and clear by@DianeSwonkktwitter.com/DianeSwonk/sta…R
You read these pieces, & it’s as if decades of actual history involving these people never occurred. Where are the editors, and why don’t they seem to care about anything? twitter.com/mcopelov/statu…
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Embarrassing that this article doesn't mention Kushner's role in covering up MBS's role in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi or the criticism of Jared's $2B kickback by Elizabeth Warren and others. Just credulous pablum about investments leading to peace. wsj.com/articles/jared…
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We had an great day full of thoughtful discussions at Wednesday's #LaFolletteForum. @menzie_chinn has a nice recap of our "Prosperity" panel with @crampell @AdamPosen & @mikeknetter. You can find links to videos of all three sessions 👇. Thanks to all who made it a huge success!twitter.com/menzie_chinn/s…Q
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“Prosperity: Crises, Debt & the Future of American Economic Policy” @crampell @AdamPosen of @PIIE @mikeknetter of @UWFoundation @mcopelov @UWLaFollette, @uwpolisci #LaFolletteForum macro policy, inflation, trade, globalization/deglobalization, dollar econbrowser.com/archives/2022/…
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Thermostatic politics is real but reaction doesn't just happen automatically: needs to be guided by organized movements. 2010= Obama backlash+tea party. 2018=Trump backlash+resistance organizing. If Dems want to make reproductive rights central they need turbo-charged movement
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also, and i will scream this until i lose my voice, lincoln's "house divided" speech WAS NOT ABOUT CIVILITY twitter.com/thrasherxy/sta…
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Tariffs on solar panels Tariffs on steel Tariffs on baby formula Shortages of solar panels Shortages of steel Shortages of baby formula What are we even doing?
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New @PIIE blog on the jobs numbers w/ Willie Powell. The headline is 428,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.6 percent. But the real news is the increased signs that nominal wage growth is slowing--which could mean inflation too. piie.com/blogs/realtime…
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NEW from @jasonfurman. Follow along👇🧵 Job growth was slightly better than expected in April, with nonfarm payroll employment rising by 428,000. While job growth remains strong, it has cooled modestly in recent monthsvm
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My prior was nominal wage growth would pick up: 1. Some measures show labor markets are extremely tight (like openings and quits). 2. Lags in effects of prices on wages. And staggered contracts. 3. Broad set of measures shows this. But maybe need to revise that prior...
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US & Chinese tariffs on each other's goods remain elevated at their new normal, despite the phase one agreement. Average US tariffs are more than 6x higher than in 2018 & cover more than half of US imports from China. #PIIECharts Learn more: piie.com/research/piie-…
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@DomWh1te @FabienBossy @darioperkins @AdamPosen And in Germany, pointing to robust nominal activity, but nothing once inflation has been taken out. Same picture in import data. 2/2
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@darioperkins @AdamPosen I disagree with my old friend @AdamPosen but I think it does illustrate that there is a debate to be had in this and all we have had from the cbs and media is groupthink in the rate rising stuff with little challenge he may well be right but there is a significant chance he isn’t
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📉"While I do think#inflationn will fall back, that fall may be considerably more painful than many of us hoped a year ago". HEAR MORE from@jdportess on#supplychainss,#wagess, the#costoflivingcrisiss and MORE in a NEW episode of#BrexitandBeyondd 👇�ukandeu.ac.uk/podcasts/brexi…plim
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One reason the Federal Reserve has its work cut out for it can be seen in this Bank of America data: Consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, is still growing. More hiring and higher pay are offsetting inflation:
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I am used to reading this kind of stuff mostly in leftist German pamplets.... but here we go again without any agency granted to the countries on Russia's borders in the @ftopinion from safely behind the US nuclear umbrella in DC 🤢ft.com/content/783e28…n
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