Adam Posen

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Second, the claim that the EU doesn’t pull its weight has always been overstated. Judged by a more comprehensive notion of sharing burdens, Europe doesn’t fare as badly. Threats to security come from many places + EU helps in multiple domains /7 iss.europa.eu/content/eu-us-…
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China is more powerful, but Russia may be more threatening. A fragmenting Europe, w/institutions collapsing, RU influence rising, FR-GE-UK infighting, rising instability, + US reputation shot would be a bigger strategic calamity for the US than Chinese possession of Taiwan /3
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Here's a scary thought Javid and Hunt want a corporation tax rate of 15% The effective rate would be lower This would breach the OECD pillar 2 minimum corporate tax rate agreement So the UK would still be seeking to exempt itself from international rules 1/
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Stop saying "#sanctions are hurting us more than Russia". #Putin likes to tell this fairytale, and some have picked it up in the West as well. But here is how #Russia's and #Germany's GDP are expected to develop according to Central Bank of Russia/Bundesbank (forecast June '22).
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Natural gas prices in Europe - a massive importer of energy - have overall risen strongly and show high volatility, which is very different from the US. Chart via @AndreasSteno
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Current Dutch auction on tax cuts is fantasy economics at its worst. Key short-term choice in short term is whether to - as Sunak planned - implement large cuts to NHS/education spending, especially staff pay. Result: staff shortages/strikes, etc. (1/3) barrons.com/articles/boris…
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Sorry, but no. I grew up in Pottstown. The same racism & anti-Semitism was always there. We non-white/non-Christian people who lived there then didn’t cause it. And the non-white/non-Christian people who have moved in since didn’t cause the far right authoritarianism. Stop it. twitter.com/cbsmornings/st…
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A quick primer on tax cuts: they DO -improve efficiency (taxes distort economic behaviour) -redistributive from some to others DO NOT - improve efficiency much (some rare exceptions) - pay for themselves (again rare exceptions) ARE - inflationary (they stimulate spending)
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@briggsy1964 @rdipad @kulkulkan Here a recent talk by @AdamPosen, an expert on economic effects of Brexit, who presents a huge treasure trove of data on the impact of Brexit. Summary: Some areas less affected than feared but overall very gloomy. You insisted on data. There it is. youtu.be/bKynmWO5Zac
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Friends in academia, this will hit everyone hard in and outside Germany. The DAAD, AvH and Goethe Institute are forced to implement huge cuts. The loss will be catastrophic and we need to push back. twitter.com/DAAD_Germany/s…
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Probably the most astounding interview I've seen in a while. "You didn't answer his important question... Who is advising the president on shockingly naive price theory over a gallon of gas?" "Is this just central planning now? Where is this White House going?" twitter.com/FinanceLancelo…
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"A temporary delay of these #nuclear closures, conducted in a way that assures the plants’ safe operation, could cut EU gas demand by almost 1 bcm per month." IEA, March 2022
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In 1970, just 1 in 5 U.S.-born PhD graduates in economics had a parent with a graduate degree. Now? Two-thirds of them do, according to a new analysis from the Peterson Institute for International Economics. piie.com/sites/default/…
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When it fails, impeach them again for the exact same reason, because what they did still warrants removal, and until they are removed it is the Senate's duty to impeach them continually, reading out their lists of infractions and holding votes to make the complicity plain.
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Impeach them even without the votes, imo. Impeach them to show that what they have done is impeachable, to put the depth of it on display, and to show the world that Republicans are complicit in their corruption. twitter.com/LeftyGeezer/st…
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Is China's private sector truly being crushed? company-level data for #China’s largest companies show that, in fact, the share of the #PrivateSector in that group has expanded rapidly & near-continuously over the past decade. T Huang, @nicolas_veron @PIIE ow.ly/E1LM50JRnog
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One of the only things crypto actually does do is make it easier to carry out ransomware attacks—like the one that has crippled Costa Rica's IT infrastructure & hurt a lot of vulnerable people ft.com/content/9895f9…
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by their logic, if supreme court justices don’t want to be bothered at dinner, maybe they just shouldn’t go out to dinner
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I wrote a column in 🇩🇪Handelsblatt on why the ECB needs to backstop government bonds of Italy and others to avoid another speculation-induced round of €crisis. Fragility is due to the €architecture, not fundamentals; there‘s a need for pragmatic policy.app.handelsblatt.com/meinung/homo-o…wfY
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Latin America has struggled to sustain economic growth since the 1980s. Limited policy continuity has been partly to blame—successive governments lurch from right to left & undo economic progress of their predecessors. #PIIECharts Explore: piie.com/research/piie-…
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This, BTW, is the third Buy America restriction that's been waived/suspended in the last few weeks bc of its cost/time/complexity/etc problems for critical projects twitter.com/scottlincicome…
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“A world in which the economy recovers so quickly that inflation emerges is better than one in which recovery drags on painfully for years.” ⁦@delong⁩ on what America can learn from its past bouts of inflation. Great essay ⁦@TheEconomisteconomist.com/by-invitation/…
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Quite an interesting podcast from @Trade__Talks (that's with two 2 underscores) on WTO and the supports for countries. Caught up with it on @spotifypodcasts . Always interesting, even if they've halted the underscore puns. (Have I mentioned the underscores?) twitter.com/Trade__Talks/s…
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Boris Johnson's mixed Brexit legacy: New York Times analysis based on our @UKandEU @cepr_org e-book archive.ph/2022.07.08-203…
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A crowd gathers at the Loudoun County, Virginia, Courthouse for the dedication of the county’s Great War memorial. White and black soldiers are segregated on the memorial.
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Unholy shit: “A former evangelical leader details his group’s extensive program to influence Justices Thomas, Alito and Scalia through meals and entertainment.” politico.com/news/2022/07/0…
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If America’s liberal elites either don’t understand the acute crisis we are in or simply can’t bring themselves to address it clearly, democracy in this country stands little chance. A thread, based on a particularly egregious example of liberal (self-)obfuscation: twitter.com/tzimmer_histor…
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The June employment report strongly suggests the economy was not in recession in the first half of 2022, @jasonfurman writes. However, this is limited reassurance on the future because previous recessions were not always evident in data prior to the peak.piie.com/blogs/realtime…
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Great discussion of my @PIIE colleague @annastansbury's research on elitism in academia, esp. economics. I'd love to see a study go further and look at backgrounds of senior administration. washingtonpost.com/business/2022/…
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Perhaps if you’re referring to your party’s governing record to date in terms most would use to describe the aftermath of a major natural disaster it’s worth asking whether it should really be running the country at all?
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Brilliant thread by @tzimmer_history on what the pieties of the sort of liberal establishment platformed by the NYT gets so badly wrong (and what that language harms) twitter.com/tzimmer_histor…
It’s a strikingly unfiltered, blunt version of exceptionalist progress gospel. It’s as ahistorical as it is politically disastrous, stifling any serious grappling with America’s past and present and effectively blunting the liberal response to the slide into authoritarianism. 11/
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It’s striking how the author’s diagnosis of what actually plagues the country is presented almost entirely in the language of the Right’s culture war complaints – a compilation of reactionary talking points and moral panic building blocks. 4/
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On July 4, the New York Times published an essay by the president of the Ford Foundation. It’s an interesting window into the mindset of America’s ostensibly liberal elite: a superficially compelling, yet utterly unconvincing, inadequate, and severely misleading diagnosis. 1/
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THREAD: The US employment report for June continues to show a strong labor market consistent with a strong economy with moderating inflationary pressures. 372k jobs were added in June. @jasonfurman explores. Follow along 👇 (1/11)6
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This is a truly important thread from @jasonfurman @PIIE on making sense of the divergence between the employment and GDP data in the US right now. The key is (lousy) productivity growth, and how that will unfold, as Jason explains. twitter.com/jasonfurman/st…
You can see the magnitude of the disconnect in the productivity data. We'll get the real data in a month, based on my estimate for Q2 this is what output-per-hour (aka productivity) looks like. (Note this adjusts for nonfarm business and changes in hours.)
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In the last two quarters: GDP: -1% (assuming GDP Now is correct, a big assumption) Employment: +2% We have never seen a disconnect like that before in the data (available since 1948).
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Prime Minister Abe was a leader of historic significance His vision for and successful implementation of CPTPP, Womenomics, of reforms including of agriculture to make those work, and reflation made Japan and the world lastingly better To lose him this way is so unfair and awful
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is heading out on her first trip to Asia since taking office, aiming to use sit-downs with global counterparts to help build momentum for a complex effort to cap prices for Russian oil bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @bpolitics
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RIP🙏#ShinzoAbee Hand-written note of Shinzo Abe in Chinese, thanking a cleaner at the hotel he stayed in for the G20 summit in Hangzhou, China, 2016.K
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There's a caricature of Japan as a stagnant society. Aging, yes — but stagnant not at all. In fact remarkably dynamic in many ways. Writing them off as the future that never happened is all wrong. As others like @Noahpinion can tell you, we could learn a lot from Japan 9/
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He was also, however, an innovative economic leader, willing to break with fiscal and monetary orthodoxy in an attempt to break Japanese deflation. And unorthodox in surprising other ways too 3/
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Condolences to the people of Japan Japan under Shinzo Abe stepped up to lead internationally – eg, CPTPP, the Trilateral – helping to maintain international cooperation during a challenging period of American retreat During this time of profound sadness, I want to say thanks twitter.com/nytimes/status…
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One big concern in the jobs numbers: There is still a giant gap in state and local govt jobs—they are down 656,000 since Feb ‘20, with close to half of that, 306,000, in education. It’s crucial that state and local govts use their ARPA funds to raise pay and refill those jobs. 6/
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Put another way: nominal wage growth moderating even in the face of continued inflation is more evidence that the fed can keep labor markets tight right now without feeding inflation. 4/
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Wage growth is also clearly decelerating, which is enormously consequential for fed policy. Quarterly wage growth ticked down in June and has dropped substantially in recent months. It is now near its pre-COVID range. 2/
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Cutting taxes will not magically improve the UK’s economic performance ft.com/content/391714…
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If you don't follow @AdamPosen already, you should. So much insight into so many aspects of our political and financial lives. Also @PIIE . twitter.com/jardinmondial/…
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