Adam Posen

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The United States of Sanctions foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite… via @ForeignAffairs International relations scholars do not agree on a lot, but the literature on sanctions is unanimous on the harm these measures inflict on populations in targeted countries. Buen artículo sobre sanciones.
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The rise in non-bank finance has likely broadened monetary policy transmission, says Executive Board member @Isabel_Schnabel. But it has also created new risks for the conduct of monetary policy, requiring enhanced macroprudential policies for non-banks ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date…
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Absolute nonsense. It's shameful seeing people with big platforms argue that unemployment should be higher in order to fix inequality. Just shameful.
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"We ensure our projects meet the highest standards. We will not finance any coal project; we focus on renewable energy efficiency." Great discussion by Peterson Institute @PIIE @AdamPosen with @AIIB_Official President Jin Liqun #multilateralism #infrastructure #climatechange
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One of the largest miscalculations was the surge in misinformation, mistrust & backlash to basic containment measures. This is not new - other pandemics triggered a similar reaction. Ground was fertile given surge in nationalism, political divide & proliferation of social media.
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This is a must read @pisaniferry. My summary: climate change policies will have a large macro impact, which among other things will likely be regressive unless measures are taken to prevent it. piie.com/publications/p… @PIIE
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.@AdamPosen's discussion with @AIIB_Official President Jin Liqun just ended. They covered multilateralism, governance, combatting climate change, & more. Watch it here: youtube.com/watch?v=0p6uve…
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It's really interesting looking over Adam Posen's old #Brexit prediction videos from 2017 ... He was absolutely spot on about everything... youtube.com/watch?v=EcIkIz…
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Biz told the @Independent back in July, as @SamuelMarcLowe & others noted - that Brexit red tape of U.K. safety marks is hurting supply chains. The FT has reported govt will announce extension for EU CE markings before shift to U.K. equiv (UKCA). independent.co.uk/news/business/…
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Quick question: Are there any other countries whose KFCs have run out of chicken and whose McDonald's have run out of milkshake... Or is it only the one on the island that just decided to economically cut itself off from the mainland?
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Dear Academic Friends, In my 10 years as a professor, I struggled to find material on contemporary policy issues for my SYLLABUS. The speed & novelty of today's policy changes impacting trade make the challenge **YOU** face even greater. Here is a small attempt to help... 1/🧵
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Thanks @ChadBown - just got an email "Four ideas for your fall syllabus" about the PE of trade. He paired write ups of fresh topics (COVID supply chains, trade war, etc) with his related @PIIE working papers (with workable data, too!). That man stays on the public goods hustle!
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““I worry about inflation being a problem in the U.S. because of a breakdown in fiscal credibility, an inability of our factionalized legislature to raise taxes when we need to.” ⁦@AdamPosenbloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Make sure you're registered for tomorrow's conversation with Jin Liqun, President of @AIIB_Official, on how ongoing international crises, like climate change & health crisis management can only be won by investing in constructive multilateralism. Register: piie.zoom.us/webinar/regist…
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"An overlooked but key part of the Nixon Shock was the decision to impose 10% surcharge on all foreign imports. The purpose was not to protect domestic firms from foreign competition, but to force others, mainly Japan, to revalue their currencies against the dollar."—@D_A_Irwin
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If the results of this NBC News poll are accurate, we do not see the extreme vaccine hesitancy among Black Americans, where more than 75% are already vaccinated. Conservatives, and especially Trump supporters, are particularly unwilling to be vaccinated. They threaten us all.
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As of July 1, USCIS was poised to waste 146K green card numbers. Even if it doubles its approval rate from Q3 in Quarter 4, there would be waste of 117K. It's a pretty much hopeless situation unless USCIS takes decisive action to mass issue green cards before Sept. 30
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It also means that as of July 1, Biden's team hadn't increased the rate of EB green card approvals AT ALL from Trump's final quarter in office. No quarter of 2020 has equaled the record quarter (since FY 2013) of FY 2020, Quarter 4, which saw 48,797 approvals.
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"The risk of accelerating inflation is probably lower than the risk of undershooting on possible employment. It’s still right not to pre-empt” by tightening policy. --@AdamPosen. @PIIE bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @economics @RichMiller28
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"We should be doing bottom-up #budgeting; that is, we need to decide what it is we need to spend on, including #pandemic preparedness and #ClimateChange and so on, make the commitment, and then raise the #taxes to meet it." - @AdamPosen twitter.com/heimbergecon/s…
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Here’s what top economic thinkers say about the new Fed framework one year after Powell presented it bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @business @RichMiller28
UK - New Zealand trade deal close. Almost completely insignificant economically, the greatest interest will be in seeing the difference between this and the UK-Australia deal - on agricultural quotas and climate change provisions to name two. amp.rnz.co.nz/article/63c5b2…
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The Covid-19 fiscal response could be viewed as a model going forward in terms of stabilisation policy: go for "green" public investment, strengthen automatic stabilisers, rethink fiscal-monetary coordination. Interesting article by @AdamPosen: intereconomics.eu/contents/year/…
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My thoughts drawing on my longer @Journal_IS article: The Failure of Counterterrorism After the Civil War lawfareblog.com/failure-counte…
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Starting destructive trade wars/exiting global climate deal, crippling our national response to a public health emergency and treating US elections/institutions as illegitimate did more damage to our "standing" than admitting to the limitations of what US power can accomplish did twitter.com/MacaesBruno/st…
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On November 30, Josephine Baker will become the first Black woman to be laid to rest the Panthéon, an honor reserved for France’s national heroes. @FRANCE24france24.com/en/france/2021… “The Queen of Paris: Josephine Baker” @criterionchannlcriterionchannel.com/starring-josep…
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one way we know recent media concern for human rights in Afghanistan is super earnest and good faith is that “the three major networks devoted a total of 362 mins to Afghanistan” in the past in 5yrs, or “an average of only 24 mins per network per year” responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/08/20/thr…
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Indeed, by the standard of this analogy, the people whose reputations should “never recover” should be those in the George W, Bush administration, many of whom now have the chutzpah to weigh in about the end of the futile war they started.
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NEW RESEARCH: For auto and electronics supply chains (and where dependence on Japan was greater), the 2011 Fukushima earthquake shifted imports to new suppliers that tended to be developing and large countries. By @CarolineFreund, @a_mulabdic et al voxeu.org/article/how-na…
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If you teach undergrad trade: Have you updated your syllabus to cover the effect of COVID-19 and Trump Tariffs on global trade/supply chain? I recommend this piece by @ChadBown and @TomBollyky for COVID-19 supply chain. Any other suggestions? twitter.com/PIIE/status/14…
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Shohei Ohtani currently has a 166 OPS+ and a 166 ERA+. It’s so wild that I don’t even know what superlative to hang on it for the take. This is the most impressive and most incredible and maybe just plain best individual season in modern baseball history.
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It's hard to read this, by @saletan, and not conclude that no American has been a better friend to the Taliban than @mikepompeo. slate.com/news-and-polit…
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AUGUST 24: Jin Liqun, President of @AIIB_Official, joins us to discuss how ongoing international crises, like climate change, poverty, & health crisis management can only be won by investing in a more inclusive & constructive multilateralism. Register now: piie.zoom.us/webinar/regist…
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Utterly bizarre. There’s a mountain of evidence why giving rightwingers who operate purely in bad faith a platform under the guise of “debating” them will always have the effect of normalizing them or allowing them to self-victimize - and yet the NYT goes: “Let’s have Rufo on!” twitter.com/TaulbyE324/sta…
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Last year, @UMich Provost Susan Collins shared advice she’d give to students of color who are thinking of pursing #CareersInEcon. Hear from other leaders at this year’s Exploring Career Pathways in Economics conference. Register today: bit.ly/3xTLbmB @SadieCollective
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One political danger Biden faces in promising to bring home every American from Afghanistan is that we know from the 1970s that the right can always invent imaginary Americans who have not yet been brought home from a long war.
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Biden has gotten more bad press over a week of messy-but-successful-so-far evacuations than Obama and Trump combined got across 12 years of Americans actually dying in pursuit of a failed policy. Frightening political implications.
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Doesn't look like cutting emergency UI benefits cause people to immediately go back to work, and it could hurt the economy as spending declines @ChrisJStein looks at an early study a.msn.com/01/en-ph/AANy2…
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My brother (I have 3) quit his job to research & write about our immigration history. He sent us this transcript from Gerald Ford Presidential Library. When the US knew the Fall of Saigon was imminent, leaders debated where to send the refugees. We created these refugees.
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An accelerated transition to a carbon-neutral economy is bound to have serious, immediate economic implications. It is high time policymakers realize that climate policy is also macroeconomic policy & design transition strategies now. By @pisaniferry: piie.com/publications/p…
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Extraordinarily insightful new episode of @PIIE TradeWinds is up on Youtube now in case you didn’t catch it live on Thursday. Love how @MalmstromEU already has found her groove and addeed her flavour! twitter.com/PIIE/status/14…
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The world is burning, and yet the Energy Charter Treaty - unveiled in draft 30 years ago today - is being used to sue governments trying to move away from fossil fuels. I’ve written to Liz Truss demanding the UK shows some leadership and supports plans to decarbonise the treaty.
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Fiscal austerity leads to higher income inequality, especially when fiscal consolidation is spending-based. The inequality-increasing impact in South American countries is even higher than in OECD countries; new evidence by Cardoso/@lauraabcarvalho: boeckler.de/de/faust-detai…
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Here’s a piece from 1912… It noted the adverse link between greenhouse gas emissions and global warming 🥵. The 2021#IPCCReportt confirms this link. It calls for rapid emissions⬇️ to secure us on the path to 1.5C. #emissionss @CRUGROUPP#NetZeroosustainability.crugroup.com/carbonLf
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À cause de la baisse du taux d'efficacité du vaccin CureVac, nous pouvons économiser un milliard de doses de vaccins. Ce n’est pas difficile, mais il faut agir vite. Une perspective cruciale, signée @ChadBown du @PIIE — à lire. legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2021/08/19/…
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Third-party auditing “underpins a variety of legislation” designed to prevent American customers from being complicit in Xinjiang rights abuses, @cullenhendrix says. wsj.com/articles/china…
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The number of Indian graduate students coming to the US will likely continue to decline until Congress addresses the long waits for employment-based green cards and the inadequate 85,000-annual H-1B limit. @m_clem @erikbryn @FareedZakaria @gsiskind @levie forbes.com/sites/stuartan…
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Comment la chaîne logistique de fabrication que CureVac a développée — avec des ressources considérables du gouvernement allemand — pourrait encore être viable, même si son propre vaccin Covid-19 ne l’est peut-être pas. par moi, dans @Grand_Continent legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2021/08/19/…
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