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Nate Cohn
Results coming in from across state, but Fairbanks area seems further ahead. #aksen 1/2
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@Nate_Cohn but this time, he may have been just a little too far back...
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For the second time in two chances, Miller has a great shot to the double his share of the vote from preelection polls
In 1900, 95% of Southerners were born in the South. That isn't true today nyti.ms/1m3wDWq pic.twitter.com/zfhZ6IDb7p
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The "documentaries" on Discovery, History, TLC make such a good case for PBS
People interested in/knowledgable about education: what's your take on this? city-journal.org/2014/24_3_nyc-…
This Georgia Senate race is starting to feel like a time capsule. Nunn, Carter, Miller. Who knows what's next.
Maybe I should get deployed to Alaska for Election Day so that I can cover the lower-48 returns during day, Alaska at a reasonable hour
North Carolina is the most populous/expensive Senate toss-up, and it's close. Why shouldn't the DSCC put more money than anywhere else?
The world is a dark and scary place when you turn the non-partisan poll filter on @pollsterpolls pic.twitter.com/M58IqjZRDv
Pretty big spread on generic ballot polls over last month (R+5 to D+7), but the average/median remains stable: slight D edge among RVs
The California Exodus: Where Californians have gone, and where they've made the biggest change nytimes.com/2014/08/15/ups…
High fertility and immigration can certainly drive big pop/gdp growth, but lower domestic migration rates suggests it's no miracle
I'm not as well versed on the intersection of econ and demographics as I hope to be, but these migration data cut into the TX growth story
Population growth in Texas hasn't been driven as much by domestic migration as fertility and immigration pic.twitter.com/F9lEnXRwLa
There are more Northeastern expats in Virginia and North Carolina than there are in more populous Texas. nytimes.com/2014/08/15/ups…
Blue state migrants are moving down the Atlantic Coast, but not so much to Texas nytimes.com/2014/08/15/ups… pic.twitter.com/eugFEyHsx6
Migration data shows why population growth moved North Carolina and Virginia left, but not Texas or Tennessee nytimes.com/2014/08/15/ups…
This will be on the @nytimes homepage tomorrow, but why wait til morning? Report bugs before your friends do! nytimes.com/interactive/20…
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I do think there's something real going on in Kansas. I just hope that talking about it isn't interpreted as saying D% chance >1% or w/e
RE: KS piece. For me, there's a big difference between saying that a race could be closer than it should and saying that the outcome is in ?
Liberals aren't going to bloc vote against Hillary (didn't in '08, even!), and she's not going to lose minorities/downscale whites
The reality is that the Dem primary electorate is a lot less liberal than you think, loves Hillary, and she won't lose 75% of black vt again
In case anyone forgot, Hillary Clinton fought a historic candidate to a tie in 2008, despite being far more vulnerable than she is today
1st Obama/Clinton poll of 2006 (for 2008) was CNN/ORC. Had Clinton 28, Obama 17 (rest scattered). Last month for 2016, Clinton 67, Warren 10
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@Nate_Cohn Pedro '97-'01--->GOAT. Period. Full a Stop.
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Happy to announce that our new, easier-to-search dashboard for our charts & all things Pollster is live: elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster
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Pedro in 2000, in the AL East during the heart of the steroid era, makes Felix and Kershaw look fairly pedestrian pic.twitter.com/ToWKzzKFJf
Felix v. Kershaw, against non-pitchers pic.twitter.com/Ny5yaV4q8b
There are 14 precincts left to count in Sheboygan, w/ Grothman up 810 votes. There are good precincts left for both, more for Leibham. #WI06
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.@kwcollins Hype/discussion about data, analytics, rigor stuff can be weirdly (or maybe not so weirdly) free of data, analysis, or rigor.
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Obviously Mike Trout will finally win the MVP the year that maybe he shouldn't fangraphs.com/blogs/felix-he… pic.twitter.com/7EEHOJAofi
McConnell has pretty clearly held a lead since the end of the GOP primary, and Grimes hasn't been near 50. Close race, but still clear.
Are we getting a generic ballot question out of that post poll from last week? @sfcpoll
Good poll for the GOP. They could use more of these mcclatchydc.com/2014/08/11/235…
Here's how it looked with PPP in 2012. And here's how they did it pic.twitter.com/PNldrvEMZj
Are bad pollsters copying good ones in order to appear more accurate? 53eig.ht/1zU6Fge pic.twitter.com/kmrW4vk7Vg
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Yeah, so, my time on the PCT last week wasn't anything like this seattletimes.com/html/otherspor…
The CW was that Nunn would attack Perdue on Bain-esque grounds. Here it is politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/08/09/no-…
New @UpshotNYT: The political risks of an Obama executive action on immigration nytimes.com/2014/08/09/ups… Could provoke backlash in midterms
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RT @jacobsullum: Despite legalization, Colorado teenagers stubbornly refuse to smoke more pot: goo.gl/Sq7s3C pic.twitter.com/t5fRaKAZfe
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I think this is the first night when the @AOSHQDD numbers were meaningfully ahead of the AP/SoS for a meaningful time (45min?). Well done.
Alexander won the early vote by a wide margin. Won't be easy, to say the least, for Carr to overcome on election day.
Alexander now up 53-39. Up everywhere but the ring of counties around Nashville, where Carr was expected to run well pic.twitter.com/29ZUfUjOi9
Alexander has opened a 53-38 lead with 40k early votes counted by the Secretary of State's office. None in the AP tally.
No clue where the votes are coming from, but it looks like we could have a tight race, with Alexander up just 3 in the first 20k early votes
Alexander leads Carr by a narrow 1 pt margin in the first 16k ballots counted, 47.6 to 46.6.