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Nate Cohn
journalism 16,122 followers
Today's polls remind us that if Alaska in fact leans GOP, then they have the clearest path to a majority. Reupping: nytimes.com/2014/09/10/ups…
Our latest @UpshotNYT interactive is now live: A country-by-country look at flooding risk. nytimes.com/2014/09/24/ups…
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It seems the best way for Obama to build support for something is to do nothing.
I'm a secret supporter of looking at the median, but it's not useful in sparse polling environments contaminated by partisan polls
The D advantage in @SamWangPhD seems to assume D+5 in AK, based on two polls sponsored by Sen Majority PAC and AK-AFL/CIO
.@SamWangPhD which polls are you using to get your median to D+5 in AK? Just three, including those two sponsored-D polls?
King Felix is 1-0 with 0.96 ERA in 4 starts this month. He has gotten 11 runs of support. Other Mariners starters have a 5.91 ERA.
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A few sketchy theories about the national-state polling gap nytimes.com/2014/09/24/ups…
#KSSen a rare race where one party must invest resources/time without the other having to respond. Expanding the map usually cuts both ways.
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reports on LCV's NH poll should include that survey was conducted as if phone technology never advanced beyond 1980 twitter.com/LoganDobson/st…
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Do it! MT @carolynryan: Like politics? Bookmark new NYT feed, First Draft, for fast-paced updates, analysis, color. nyti.ms/1mC3UOf
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Seaaaaaaaaaaahawksss (as an aside, sudden death OT sells these games short; as another aside, everyone still watching despite controversy)
Broncos have clearly stepped up since Super Bowl. Were down 22-0 at half. Now only down 17-3.
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@Nate_Cohn it sounded like an abuse story (with NFL in the news, that's where my mind went)…and then it was very apparent it was Obama
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@Nate_Cohn female talks about being online 'wooed' by someone, but then the match goes sour—and doesn't mention Obama until end.
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Wow, @mikefreemanNFL is out of his mind going on msnbc from Seattle at 9am eastern.
Going on @upwithsteve to talk midterms in 10-15 minutes
New study shows: Internet Trolls Are Narcissists, Psychopaths, and Sadists psychologytoday.com/blog/your-onli… #breaking
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Ken Giles is sick ... RT @KevinShockey: The Phillies just made Mariners fans happier than they have made any Phillies fans this year.
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This remains my favorite DailyKos comment ever pic.twitter.com/1f5v2SLikX
Any campaign attnys know about law re: Sec/States including disclaimers w absentee ballots?
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Senate models: DailyKos GOP 54%, @FiveThirtyEight GOP 55%, HuffPollster GOP 56%, NYT/Upshot GOP 58%, WaPost GOP 62%, Sam Wang Dems 70% (?!?)
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It’s the debut of the @UpshotNYT weekly email! You should subscribe: nytimes.com/indexes/2014/0…
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After our poll showed Chris Gibson beating Sean Eldridge by 24 points, Cook Political says #ny19 has gone from "lean r" to "likely r."
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Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia’s Ex-President, Plots Return From Williamsburg, Brooklyn -- New York Times mobile.nytimes.com/2014/09/20/wor…
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Debating whether to stay or switch plans under the new health law? @UpshotNYT can help: nytimes.com/2014/09/18/ups… pic.twitter.com/eEkiUljhHP
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Poll have consistently shown Orman or Orman+Taylor near or above 50 percent. Makes his position much more convincing. nytimes.com/2014/09/19/ups…
Greg Orman has a real pathway to victory in Kansas after last night's court decision. This isn't Kentucky. nytimes.com/2014/09/19/ups…
Well, now that Scotland voted "no," I can't wait for the other shoe to drop: England wants them gone, anyway.
I didn't realize the Lannister Lion emblem was lifted straight from Scotland's Royal Banner: upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/comm…
I'll be talking the Senate with @chrislhayes at ~835 on msnbc
@Nate_Cohn You can also buy “assault weapons.” Trifecta.
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This map is terrible. Washington is the only state where every gay couple can get married and stoned bloombergview.com/articles/2014-…
.@ABBruns Uh, I think Washington deserves special distinction for legal recreational marijuana and gay marriage
Rating change: #COGov -- Moves from Leans D to Toss-up
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"They may give us more in revenue than they take in taxes, but they may never take our freedom!!!"--Possible Scottish slogan
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The @dscc is launching coordinated radio buys in Senate races across the country targeting African American voters atr.rollcall.com/elections-2014…
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@ThePlumLineGS: HuffPost (polls only) has GOP at 49%. We (polls + fundamentals) have them at 53%. It DOESN'T make much difference.
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.@SamWangPhD gives Democrats a 65% chance of winning an election today (down from 95% 2 wk ago), but gives them 70% in November.
Fox used the voter file for its statewide surveys... That I DO like.
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and then I forgot all of the possible posturing with Orman/King etc...
And btwn Colorado mail-in ballots, Alaska, runoffs, and possible recounts, I doubt we'd know by the next morning