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Nate Cohn
journalism 16,749 followers
I have hesitancy about using 400n YouGov in Alaska, let alone to try and in down whether noncitizens!!! are turning out and at what rate
I'm persuadable on the overall argument, but the CCES does not seem like the way to measure noncitizen voting rates.
Sunrise light illuminates Mt. Rainier, photographed from high in the Tatoosh Range wilderness. Photo by Chris Moore.
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Two thoughts on AK: our last YouGov poll showed >30% of RVs contacted by Begich camp; making up a 3pt gap requires just 7500 votes
So Republican pollster Hellenthal has Mark Begich up 49-39 in #AKSen....
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Conceivably, the GOP could win NH and NC and lose GA. Unreal.
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.@MattDover @ElectProject I have 65+ at 44% of the electorate. Not representative
Here's something that doesn't happen often: candidate who loses a primary needs to cut an ad for victor…
Sure, though they'd be massive underdogs RT @StevenAndrews @Nate_Cohn even traditional path of holding CO IA AK NC isn’t completely gone
Reps have no business being in danger in KS, and their odds in GA shouldn't be this bad, either. They should have nearly had this locked up
The Republicans remain obvious favorites. But i'm fairly astonished that the Democrats still have a plausible, if unlikely path.
Harstad shows a tie in AK Senate… Last poll by them had Begich +5... and who knows what polls they haven't released.
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Public polls, for the first time, make it seem plausible that Nunn could win outright on November 4…
This is a smart thought MT @Hershy718 on average Deal is stronger then Perdue by 2.5%, would u agree it's unlikely that both go to runoff
The very good AJC/SRBI poll in Georgia is 29% black--very reasonable--shows Perdue up 2. His first lead in weeks.
Big question with Georgia is the racial composition of the electorate. Last AJC poll just 24% black. Haven't seen this one yet.
Day 1 of NC early voting: 117420 votes, 51D, 29R; 70.1 white, 26.8 black.
Heads up, political world: We'll be releasing SIX brand-new NBC/Marist polls on Sunday -- AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD
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I can confirm the last line of this PNA release:
To break 50, Nunn has to win by the margin of the minor vote. If Libertarian gets 4, she has to win 50-46-4, etc.
A three point Nunn lead = a real shot to win outright.
This CNN/ORC poll makes 5 straight in which Nunn leads Perdue (47%-44%, within MOE):… cc: @michaelwtyler @Nate_Cohn
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Shaheen at 49% has happened enough that we're not writing a piece on it bc Sunday Styles wanted it
I'm so ready for ebola to be gone. Then Twitter can return to saying ridiculous things about numerous subjects, instead of just one.
There are many reasons to hope that Ebola never returns to New York. One reason, low on the list, is not having to read tweets about it.
Good polls for Orman in Kansas, Nunn in Georgia. GOP chances of Senate control down to 63%.…
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.@Nate_Cohn, @Redistrict, @ktumulty & me talk midterms @ 7:30, Marvin Center Amphitheater, 800 21 St., 3rd floor. Now w/ more @Nate_Cohn.
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Correction: @ktumulty will be speaking in place of the second @Redistrict. Only one @Redistrict will be speaking tonight.
Tonight: @monkeycageblog, @Redistrict, @Redistrict, and me talk midterms at GW at 7:30, Marvin Center Amphitheater, 800 21 St., 3rd fl
Join @Nate_Cohn, @ktumulty, @Redistrict, and me talking midterms at GW. Tonight at 7:30, Marvin Center Amphitheater, 800 21st St, 3rd floor.
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Alaska's so small. Closing a 3 point gap might only require 8k votes!
The range of possibilities remain quite large: the Dems could narrowly squeak it out, or the GOP could pick up 9 or 10 seats
Don't assume politics is run by genius professionals. Not even the DSCC can apparently decide whether or not #KYSEN is in play.
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Support for legalizing marijuana Millennials -63% Gen X - 54% Boomers - 51% 65+ - 27%
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The degree of party unity here is pretty extraordinary.…
Remember: the Dems can't even target these newly registered voters until they're on the voter file
If Nunn gets to within 20k votes of 50 but misses, these missing RVs are going to loom extremely large…
It's crazy that the Dems look pretty gone in AR/LA/AK, endangered in IA/CO/NC, and yet still have any plausible path to cobble together 50
How much has the Major League strike zone grown in the last 5 years? A lot.…
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Leo now makes Nunn a favorite in Georgia, though it does not penalize her for needing 50, as many analysts do…
Here's our Likely Voter chart with all the demographic breakdowns for the midterms
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Generic congressional ballot: Likely voters split, 47% for Democrats, 46% for GOP
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YUP. MT @mattmfm Recalling convo @Nate_Cohn and I had a year ago now ?ing Dem resources in TX, both agreeing $$ focus should have been GA.
So who has a csv of Spanish surnames?
Unless you're conducting a poll for @uselectionatlas, you're just not allowed to do this:
The population of Arkansas' most Democratic county shank by 18 percent since 2000. It's most Rep. county grew 54%…
If Ds don't run up big numbers among *non 2010* voters they will lose no matter what raw overall EV numbers show
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