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Nate Cohn
Piece from @Nate_Cohn confirmed in our NH poll. Establishment candidates split that vote.
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Seriously, stuff like this is the Fed equivalent of shouting.
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Reminder: @nytimes has lifted its pay wall, allowing unlimited digital access for Paris attack coverage.
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War on Christmas offensive halted near espresso roast
New Yorker subtweets me
Very interesting sampling method in new Latino Decisions survey
Bush margin shrinks to 37,000 votes with 94% counted by 1:30 AM
At this time 15 years ago, Bush had an 80,000 vote lead with 90% counted.
By now, 82% of precincts reporting
15 years ago, right around now. A lot of South Florida left
What some election-night websites looked like 15 years ago, per C-Span broadcast Nov 7, 2000:
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Conventional Wisdom in its primordial form.
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DMR/Selzer also showed that Cruz was the second choice of relatively few voters in Iowa.
Not clear Cruz is main beneficiary of erosion in Carson. In Fox poll, Carson vt split to Trump, Rubio, then Cruz
Ben Carson defends himself against allegations that he never attempted to murder a child:
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Love the headline, like the photo of Carson making pyramid shape with hands.
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I'm a longtime Rubio skeptic, but it's amazing just how much broke his way (from April)
Nice reminder that a lot of the second choice analysis is based on bad assumptions about GOP "lanes"
Surprising number of areas where Conway underperformed Grimes, IMO.
Conway doing better than Grimes, but not usually by anywhere near enough. Sometimes worse.
That second color of orange is >5 *pts* btw. Serious underperformance in country, not just cities
Conway still broadly underperforming his targets in counties where >50% of precincts have been counted

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